Backtest History

267 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.

NFL backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2018	21	NE vs LA	13–3	+2.4	+2.0	+10.0	7.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	20	LA @ NO	26–23	-1.8	-3.0	+3.0	4.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	20	NE @ KC	37–31	-2.6	-3.0	+6.0	8.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	19	DAL @ LA	22–30	-5.5	-7.5	-8.0	2.5
2018	19	IND @ KC	13–31	-3.4	-4.0	-18.0	14.6
2018	19	LAC @ NE	28–41	-4.9	-4.0	-13.0	8.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	19	PHI @ NO	14–20	-5.2	-8.5	-6.0	0.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	18	IND @ HOU	21–7	-1.2	-2.0	+14.0	15.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	18	LAC @ BAL	23–17	-2.8	-3.0	+6.0	8.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	18	PHI @ CHI	16–15	-6.7	-6.5	+1.0	7.7
2018	18	SEA @ DAL	22–24	-1.8	-2.5	-2.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	17	ARI @ SEA	24–27	-18.4	-15.5	-3.0	15.4
2018	17	ATL @ TB	34–32	+0.8	+2.5	+2.0	1.2
2018	17	CAR @ NO	33–14	-5.2	-8.0	+19.0	24.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	17	CHI @ MIN	24–10	-1.5	-6.0	+14.0	15.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	17	CIN @ PIT	13–16	-15.4	-14.0	-3.0	12.4
2018	17	CLE @ BAL	24–26	-4.8	-7.0	-2.0	2.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	17	DAL @ NYG	36–35	-4.7	-7.5	+1.0	5.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	17	DET @ GB	31–0	-3.9	-7.5	+31.0	34.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	17	IND @ TEN	33–17	+6.2	+5.0	+16.0	9.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	17	JAX @ HOU	3–20	-8.8	-7.0	-17.0	8.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	17	LAC @ DEN	23–9	+4.2	+7.0	+14.0	9.8
2018	17	MIA @ BUF	17–42	-5.6	-5.5	-25.0	19.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	17	NYJ @ NE	3–38	-11.0	-14.0	-35.0	24.0
2018	17	LV @ KC	3–35	-12.9	-14.5	-32.0	19.1
2018	17	PHI @ WAS	24–0	+4.1	+6.0	+24.0	19.9
2018	17	SF @ LA	32–48	-8.1	-10.5	-16.0	7.9
2018	16	ATL @ CAR	24–10	-0.1	+2.5	+14.0	14.1
2018	16	BAL @ LAC	22–10	-5.5	-4.0	+12.0	17.5
2018	16	BUF @ NE	12–24	-11.0	-14.0	-12.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	16	CHI @ SF	14–9	+4.4	+3.5	+5.0	0.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	16	CIN @ CLE	18–26	-10.1	-10.0	-8.0	2.1
2018	16	DEN @ LV	14–27	+3.0	+2.5	-13.0	16.0
2018	16	GB @ NYJ	44–38	+4.1	+3.0	+6.0	1.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	16	HOU @ PHI	30–32	+2.2	-1.0	-2.0	4.2
2018	16	JAX @ MIA	17–7	-3.6	-3.0	+10.0	13.6
2018	16	KC @ SEA	31–38	+0.2	+1.0	-7.0	7.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	16	LA @ ARI	31–9	+13.3	+14.5	+22.0	8.7
2018	16	MIN @ DET	27–9	+4.8	+6.5	+18.0	13.2
2018	16	NYG @ IND	27–28	-8.4	-10.0	-1.0	7.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	16	PIT @ NO	28–31	-5.9	-6.5	-3.0	2.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	16	TB @ DAL	20–27	-7.7	-7.0	-7.0	0.7
2018	16	WAS @ TEN	16–25	-9.6	-12.5	-9.0	0.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	15	ARI @ ATL	14–40	-7.9	-10.0	-26.0	18.1
2018	15	CLE @ DEN	17–16	-2.2	-1.0	+1.0	3.2
2018	15	DAL @ IND	0–23	-1.1	-3.0	-23.0	21.9
2018	15	DET @ BUF	13–14	-4.6	-2.5	-1.0	3.6
2018	15	GB @ CHI	17–24	-6.7	-6.0	-7.0	0.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2018	15	HOU @ NYJ	29–22	+9.1	+7.0	+7.0	2.1
2018	15	LAC @ KC	29–28	-3.3	-3.5	+1.0	4.3 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.