Backtest History

269 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.

NFL backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2020	21	KC vs TB	9–31	-0.3	+3.0	-22.0	21.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	20	BUF @ KC	24–38	+1.3	-3.0	-14.0	15.3
2020	20	TB @ GB	31–26	-2.2	-3.0	+5.0	7.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	19	BAL @ BUF	3–17	-1.6	-2.5	-14.0	12.4
2020	19	CLE @ KC	17–22	-3.3	-7.5	-5.0	1.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	19	LA @ GB	18–32	-8.2	-7.0	-14.0	5.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	19	TB @ NO	30–20	-2.0	-2.5	+10.0	12.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	18	BAL @ TEN	20–13	+6.2	+3.5	+7.0	0.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	18	CHI @ NO	9–21	-12.5	-11.0	-12.0	0.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	18	CLE @ PIT	48–37	-1.8	-5.0	+11.0	12.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	18	IND @ BUF	24–27	-9.4	-7.0	-3.0	6.4
2020	18	LA @ SEA	30–20	-1.7	-3.0	+10.0	11.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	18	TB @ WAS	31–23	+12.5	+10.0	+8.0	4.5
2020	17	ARI @ LA	7–18	-2.0	-1.0	-11.0	9.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	17	ATL @ TB	27–44	-8.4	-7.5	-17.0	8.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	17	BAL @ CIN	38–3	+12.4	+13.5	+35.0	22.6
2020	17	DAL @ NYG	19–23	+2.8	+1.5	-4.0	6.8
2020	17	GB @ CHI	35–16	+6.2	+4.5	+19.0	12.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	17	JAX @ IND	14–28	-15.5	-15.5	-14.0	1.5
2020	17	LAC @ KC	38–21	+4.8	+7.0	+17.0	12.2
2020	17	LV @ DEN	32–31	+1.1	+2.5	+1.0	0.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	17	MIA @ BUF	26–56	-4.5	+3.5	-30.0	25.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	17	MIN @ DET	37–35	+5.2	+3.0	+2.0	3.2
2020	17	NO @ CAR	33–7	+9.3	+6.0	+26.0	16.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	17	NYJ @ NE	14–28	-1.8	-3.0	-14.0	12.2
2020	17	PIT @ CLE	22–24	-8.9	-10.5	-2.0	6.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	17	SEA vs SF	26–23	+6.1	+7.0	+3.0	3.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	17	TEN @ HOU	41–38	+6.9	+7.0	+3.0	3.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	17	WAS @ PHI	20–14	+2.9	+6.5	+6.0	3.1
2020	16	ATL @ KC	14–17	-9.0	-11.0	-3.0	6.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	16	BUF @ NE	38–9	+9.6	+7.0	+29.0	19.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	16	CAR @ WAS	20–13	+0.6	+1.0	+7.0	6.4
2020	16	CHI @ JAX	41–17	+9.3	+9.5	+24.0	14.7
2020	16	CIN @ HOU	37–31	-5.8	-7.5	+6.0	11.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	16	CLE @ NYJ	16–23	+9.6	+6.5	-7.0	16.6
2020	16	DEN @ LAC	16–19	-4.1	-2.5	-3.0	1.1
2020	16	IND @ PIT	24–28	+2.8	+1.0	-4.0	6.8
2020	16	LA @ SEA	9–20	-0.5	-1.5	-11.0	10.5
2020	16	MIA @ LV	26–25	+3.9	+2.0	+1.0	2.9
2020	16	MIN @ NO	33–52	-8.7	-6.5	-19.0	10.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	16	NYG @ BAL	13–27	-11.4	-10.0	-14.0	2.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	16	PHI @ DAL	17–37	+2.7	+3.0	-20.0	22.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	16	SF @ ARI	20–12	-7.3	-6.0	+8.0	15.3
2020	16	TB @ DET	47–7	+13.2	+12.0	+40.0	26.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	16	TEN @ GB	14–40	-2.8	-3.0	-26.0	23.2
2020	15	BUF @ DEN	48–19	+5.9	+5.5	+29.0	23.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	15	CAR @ GB	16–24	-11.3	-9.5	-8.0	3.3
2020	15	CHI @ MIN	33–27	-2.4	-2.5	+6.0	8.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	15	CLE @ NYG	20–6	+7.1	+6.0	+14.0	6.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	15	DET @ TEN	25–46	-9.3	-9.5	-21.0	11.7

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.