Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | BUF @ CHI | 35–13 | +8.0 | +8.0 | +22.0 | 14.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 16 | CIN @ NE | 22–18 | +3.9 | +3.0 | +4.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 16 | DEN @ LA | 14–51 | +3.3 | +3.0 | -37.0 | 40.3 |
| 2022 | 16 | DET @ CAR | 23–37 | +5.2 | +2.5 | -14.0 | 19.2 |
| 2022 | 16 | GB @ MIA | 26–20 | -5.2 | -3.5 | +6.0 | 11.2 |
| 2022 | 16 | HOU @ TEN | 19–14 | -2.0 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 7.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 16 | JAX @ NYJ | 19–3 | -0.2 | -2.5 | +16.0 | 16.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 16 | LAC @ IND | 20–3 | +1.0 | +3.5 | +17.0 | 16.0 |
| 2022 | 16 | LV @ PIT | 10–13 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 16 | NO @ CLE | 17–10 | -3.6 | -3.0 | +7.0 | 10.6 |
| 2022 | 16 | NYG @ MIN | 24–27 | -4.6 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2022 | 16 | PHI @ DAL | 34–40 | -2.2 | -4.0 | -6.0 | 3.8 |
| 2022 | 16 | SEA @ KC | 10–24 | -12.1 | -10.5 | -14.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 16 | TB @ ARI | 19–16 | +4.9 | +7.5 | +3.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 16 | WAS @ SF | 20–37 | -8.7 | -6.5 | -17.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 15 | ARI @ DEN | 15–24 | -2.0 | -1.5 | -9.0 | 7.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 15 | ATL @ NO | 18–21 | -7.4 | -5.0 | -3.0 | 4.4 |
| 2022 | 15 | BAL @ CLE | 3–13 | -3.1 | -2.5 | -10.0 | 6.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 15 | CIN @ TB | 34–23 | +6.8 | +3.5 | +11.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 15 | DAL @ JAX | 34–40 | +4.6 | +4.0 | -6.0 | 10.6 |
| 2022 | 15 | DET @ NYJ | 20–17 | +1.7 | -2.0 | +3.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 15 | IND @ MIN | 36–39 | -4.1 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2022 | 15 | KC @ HOU | 30–24 | +16.2 | +14.5 | +6.0 | 10.2 |
| 2022 | 15 | LA @ GB | 12–24 | -7.8 | -8.0 | -12.0 | 4.2 |
| 2022 | 15 | MIA @ BUF | 29–32 | -4.9 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 15 | NE @ LV | 24–30 | +0.4 | -1.0 | -6.0 | 6.4 |
| 2022 | 15 | NYG @ WAS | 20–12 | -6.7 | -4.5 | +8.0 | 14.7 |
| 2022 | 15 | PHI @ CHI | 25–20 | +10.1 | +8.5 | +5.0 | 5.1 |
| 2022 | 15 | PIT @ CAR | 24–16 | +1.1 | -2.5 | +8.0 | 6.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 15 | SF @ SEA | 21–13 | +4.5 | +3.0 | +8.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 15 | TEN @ LAC | 14–17 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 14 | BAL @ PIT | 16–14 | -2.9 | -1.5 | +2.0 | 4.9 |
| 2022 | 14 | CAR @ SEA | 30–24 | -6.4 | -3.5 | +6.0 | 12.4 |
| 2022 | 14 | CLE @ CIN | 10–23 | -5.7 | -4.5 | -13.0 | 7.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 14 | HOU @ DAL | 23–27 | -21.7 | -17.0 | -4.0 | 17.7 |
| 2022 | 14 | JAX @ TEN | 36–22 | -4.1 | -3.0 | +14.0 | 18.1 |
| 2022 | 14 | KC @ DEN | 34–28 | +9.2 | +8.5 | +6.0 | 3.2 |
| 2022 | 14 | LV @ LA | 16–17 | +5.5 | +6.5 | -1.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 14 | MIA @ LAC | 17–23 | +5.5 | +3.0 | -6.0 | 11.5 |
| 2022 | 14 | MIN @ DET | 23–34 | -4.7 | -2.5 | -11.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 14 | NE @ ARI | 27–13 | +2.2 | +2.0 | +14.0 | 11.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 14 | NYJ @ BUF | 12–20 | -8.5 | -10.0 | -8.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 14 | PHI @ NYG | 48–22 | +8.4 | +7.5 | +26.0 | 17.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 14 | TB @ SF | 7–35 | -3.6 | -3.5 | -28.0 | 24.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 13 | BUF @ NE | 24–10 | +2.8 | +3.5 | +14.0 | 11.2 |
| 2022 | 13 | CLE @ HOU | 27–14 | +11.6 | +7.5 | +13.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 13 | DEN @ BAL | 9–10 | -7.2 | -9.5 | -1.0 | 6.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 13 | GB @ CHI | 28–19 | +2.1 | +4.0 | +9.0 | 6.9 |
| 2022 | 13 | IND @ DAL | 19–54 | -12.8 | -11.0 | -35.0 | 22.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 13 | JAX @ DET | 14–40 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -26.0 | 25.0 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.