Backtest History
267 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 15 | GB @ CAR | 24–31 | +0.0 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 7.0 |
| 2017 | 15 | HOU @ JAX | 7–45 | -10.4 | -10.5 | -38.0 | 27.6 |
| 2017 | 15 | LA @ SEA | 42–7 | -0.6 | +1.0 | +35.0 | 35.6 |
| 2017 | 15 | LAC @ KC | 13–30 | +4.0 | -1.0 | -17.0 | 21.0 |
| 2017 | 15 | MIA @ BUF | 16–24 | -1.1 | -3.5 | -8.0 | 6.9 |
| 2017 | 15 | NE @ PIT | 27–24 | +3.1 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 15 | NYJ @ NO | 19–31 | -17.3 | -16.5 | -12.0 | 5.3 |
| 2017 | 15 | PHI @ NYG | 34–29 | +5.5 | +7.5 | +5.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 15 | TEN @ SF | 23–25 | -5.0 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 3.0 |
| 2017 | 14 | BAL @ PIT | 38–39 | -5.3 | -6.0 | -1.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 14 | CHI @ CIN | 33–7 | -7.9 | -6.0 | +26.0 | 33.9 |
| 2017 | 14 | DAL @ NYG | 30–10 | +0.5 | +4.0 | +20.0 | 19.5 |
| 2017 | 14 | DET @ TB | 24–21 | +0.8 | 0.0 | +3.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 14 | GB @ CLE | 27–21 | +2.3 | +2.5 | +6.0 | 3.7 |
| 2017 | 14 | IND @ BUF | 7–13 | +2.5 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 8.5 |
| 2017 | 14 | MIN @ CAR | 24–31 | +4.0 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 11.0 |
| 2017 | 14 | NE @ MIA | 20–27 | +15.4 | +10.0 | -7.0 | 22.4 |
| 2017 | 14 | NO @ ATL | 17–20 | -0.9 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 2.1 |
| 2017 | 14 | NYJ @ DEN | 0–23 | +3.6 | +1.0 | -23.0 | 26.6 |
| 2017 | 14 | LV @ KC | 15–26 | -4.7 | -4.5 | -11.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 14 | PHI @ LA | 43–35 | +1.0 | +1.0 | +8.0 | 7.0 |
| 2017 | 14 | SEA @ JAX | 24–30 | -3.9 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 14 | SF @ HOU | 26–16 | -1.6 | -1.0 | +10.0 | 11.6 |
| 2017 | 14 | TEN @ ARI | 7–12 | +2.1 | +2.5 | -5.0 | 7.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 14 | WAS @ LAC | 13–30 | -10.5 | -6.0 | -17.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | CAR @ NO | 21–31 | -5.1 | -5.5 | -10.0 | 4.9 |
| 2017 | 13 | CLE @ LAC | 10–19 | -18.0 | -13.5 | -9.0 | 9.0 |
| 2017 | 13 | DEN @ MIA | 9–35 | +1.7 | +1.0 | -26.0 | 27.7 |
| 2017 | 13 | DET @ BAL | 20–44 | -1.2 | -2.5 | -24.0 | 22.8 |
| 2017 | 13 | HOU @ TEN | 13–24 | -4.1 | -7.0 | -11.0 | 6.9 |
| 2017 | 13 | IND @ JAX | 10–30 | -11.4 | -10.0 | -20.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | KC @ NYJ | 31–38 | +1.3 | +3.5 | -7.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | LA @ ARI | 32–16 | +8.1 | +7.5 | +16.0 | 7.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | MIN @ ATL | 14–9 | +0.8 | -2.0 | +5.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | NE @ BUF | 23–3 | +12.4 | +7.5 | +20.0 | 7.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | NYG @ LV | 17–24 | -5.8 | -10.0 | -7.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | PHI @ SEA | 10–24 | +4.9 | +3.5 | -14.0 | 18.9 |
| 2017 | 13 | PIT @ CIN | 23–20 | +4.5 | +4.5 | +3.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | SF @ CHI | 15–14 | +1.1 | -2.5 | +1.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | TB @ GB | 20–26 | -1.1 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 4.9 |
| 2017 | 13 | WAS @ DAL | 14–38 | +3.4 | +1.5 | -24.0 | 27.4 |
| 2017 | 12 | BUF @ KC | 16–10 | -10.0 | -8.5 | +6.0 | 16.0 |
| 2017 | 12 | CAR @ NYJ | 35–27 | +4.6 | +5.5 | +8.0 | 3.4 |
| 2017 | 12 | CHI @ PHI | 3–31 | -15.6 | -14.0 | -28.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 12 | CLE @ CIN | 16–30 | -11.0 | -7.5 | -14.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 12 | DEN @ LV | 14–21 | -2.6 | -3.5 | -7.0 | 4.4 |
| 2017 | 12 | GB @ PIT | 28–31 | -15.3 | -14.0 | -3.0 | 12.3 |
| 2017 | 12 | HOU @ BAL | 16–23 | -6.1 | -7.5 | -7.0 | 0.9 |
| 2017 | 12 | JAX @ ARI | 24–27 | +8.8 | +6.5 | -3.0 | 11.8 |
| 2017 | 12 | LAC @ DAL | 28–6 | +4.3 | +1.0 | +22.0 | 17.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.