Backtest History
267 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 15 | MIA @ MIN | 17–41 | -5.8 | -7.5 | -24.0 | 18.2 |
| 2018 | 15 | NE @ PIT | 10–17 | +0.8 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 15 | NO @ CAR | 12–9 | +6.7 | +6.0 | +3.0 | 3.7 |
| 2018 | 15 | LV @ CIN | 16–30 | +0.1 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 14.1 |
| 2018 | 15 | PHI @ LA | 30–23 | -11.9 | -13.5 | +7.0 | 18.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 15 | SEA @ SF | 23–26 | +4.0 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 7.0 |
| 2018 | 15 | TB @ BAL | 12–20 | -6.8 | -8.5 | -8.0 | 1.2 |
| 2018 | 15 | TEN @ NYG | 17–0 | -1.1 | +2.5 | +17.0 | 18.1 |
| 2018 | 15 | WAS @ JAX | 16–13 | -4.4 | -7.5 | +3.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 14 | ATL @ GB | 20–34 | -5.9 | -4.0 | -14.0 | 8.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 14 | BAL @ KC | 24–27 | -10.2 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 7.2 |
| 2018 | 14 | CAR @ CLE | 20–26 | +0.4 | +1.0 | -6.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 14 | CIN @ LAC | 21–26 | -19.8 | -17.0 | -5.0 | 14.8 |
| 2018 | 14 | DEN @ SF | 14–20 | +3.4 | +3.0 | -6.0 | 9.4 |
| 2018 | 14 | DET @ ARI | 17–3 | +2.3 | +2.5 | +14.0 | 11.7 |
| 2018 | 14 | IND @ HOU | 24–21 | -5.0 | -4.0 | +3.0 | 8.0 |
| 2018 | 14 | JAX @ TEN | 9–30 | -3.9 | -5.5 | -21.0 | 17.1 |
| 2018 | 14 | LA @ CHI | 6–15 | -0.4 | +3.0 | -9.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 14 | MIN @ SEA | 7–21 | -5.6 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 14 | NE @ MIA | 33–34 | +9.0 | +8.5 | -1.0 | 10.0 |
| 2018 | 14 | NO @ TB | 28–14 | +10.7 | +8.5 | +14.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 14 | NYG @ WAS | 40–16 | +5.3 | +3.0 | +24.0 | 18.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 14 | NYJ @ BUF | 27–23 | -8.2 | -4.5 | +4.0 | 12.2 |
| 2018 | 14 | PHI @ DAL | 23–29 | -5.2 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 14 | PIT @ LV | 21–24 | +9.6 | +10.5 | -3.0 | 12.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | ARI @ GB | 20–17 | -15.0 | -13.5 | +3.0 | 18.0 |
| 2018 | 13 | BAL @ ATL | 26–16 | -1.4 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 11.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | BUF @ MIA | 17–21 | -0.7 | -3.5 | -4.0 | 3.3 |
| 2018 | 13 | CAR @ TB | 17–24 | +4.1 | +3.5 | -7.0 | 11.1 |
| 2018 | 13 | CHI @ NYG | 27–30 | +3.5 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | CLE @ HOU | 13–29 | -2.4 | -5.0 | -16.0 | 13.6 |
| 2018 | 13 | DEN @ CIN | 24–10 | +6.8 | +3.5 | +14.0 | 7.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | IND @ JAX | 0–6 | +5.4 | +4.0 | -6.0 | 11.4 |
| 2018 | 13 | KC @ LV | 40–33 | +15.1 | +14.0 | +7.0 | 8.1 |
| 2018 | 13 | LA @ DET | 30–16 | +10.9 | +10.5 | +14.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | LAC @ PIT | 33–30 | -1.4 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | MIN @ NE | 10–24 | -5.0 | -6.0 | -14.0 | 9.0 |
| 2018 | 13 | NO @ DAL | 10–13 | +8.1 | +7.0 | -3.0 | 11.1 |
| 2018 | 13 | NYJ @ TEN | 22–26 | -9.4 | -10.5 | -4.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | SF @ SEA | 16–43 | -9.3 | -10.0 | -27.0 | 17.7 |
| 2018 | 13 | WAS @ PHI | 13–28 | -7.0 | -5.5 | -15.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 12 | ARI @ LAC | 10–45 | -17.3 | -14.0 | -35.0 | 17.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 12 | ATL @ NO | 17–31 | -14.8 | -11.5 | -14.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 12 | CHI @ DET | 23–16 | +6.1 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 12 | CLE @ CIN | 35–20 | +2.1 | +1.0 | +15.0 | 12.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 12 | GB @ MIN | 17–24 | -1.8 | -4.0 | -7.0 | 5.2 |
| 2018 | 12 | JAX @ BUF | 21–24 | +0.2 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 12 | MIA @ IND | 24–27 | -11.7 | -9.0 | -3.0 | 8.7 |
| 2018 | 12 | NE @ NYJ | 27–13 | +10.8 | +13.0 | +14.0 | 3.2 |
| 2018 | 12 | NYG @ PHI | 22–25 | -2.0 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.