Backtest History
267 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 15 | JAX @ LV | 20–16 | -6.7 | -7.0 | +4.0 | 10.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 15 | LA @ DAL | 21–44 | +2.6 | +1.0 | -23.0 | 25.6 |
| 2019 | 15 | MIA @ NYG | 20–36 | -4.8 | -3.5 | -16.0 | 11.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 15 | MIN @ LAC | 39–10 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +29.0 | 28.2 |
| 2019 | 15 | NE @ CIN | 34–13 | +9.4 | +10.5 | +21.0 | 11.6 |
| 2019 | 15 | NYJ @ BAL | 21–42 | -19.3 | -17.0 | -21.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 15 | PHI @ WAS | 37–27 | +6.6 | +7.0 | +10.0 | 3.4 |
| 2019 | 15 | SEA @ CAR | 30–24 | +5.1 | +6.0 | +6.0 | 0.9 |
| 2019 | 15 | TB @ DET | 38–17 | +6.0 | +5.5 | +21.0 | 15.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 14 | BAL @ BUF | 24–17 | +9.6 | +6.5 | +7.0 | 2.6 |
| 2019 | 14 | CAR @ ATL | 20–40 | -2.2 | -3.5 | -20.0 | 17.8 |
| 2019 | 14 | CIN @ CLE | 19–27 | -9.8 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 1.8 |
| 2019 | 14 | DAL @ CHI | 24–31 | +2.2 | +3.0 | -7.0 | 9.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 14 | DEN @ HOU | 38–24 | -8.0 | -8.0 | +14.0 | 22.0 |
| 2019 | 14 | DET @ MIN | 7–20 | -10.8 | -12.0 | -13.0 | 2.2 |
| 2019 | 14 | IND @ TB | 35–38 | -2.3 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.7 |
| 2019 | 14 | KC @ NE | 23–16 | -1.0 | -3.0 | +7.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 14 | LAC @ JAX | 45–10 | +6.1 | +3.5 | +35.0 | 28.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 14 | MIA @ NYJ | 21–22 | -5.4 | -5.0 | -1.0 | 4.4 |
| 2019 | 14 | NYG @ PHI | 17–23 | -5.4 | -9.5 | -6.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 14 | PIT @ ARI | 23–17 | +6.6 | +2.5 | +6.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 14 | SEA @ LA | 12–28 | -1.9 | -1.0 | -16.0 | 14.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 14 | SF @ NO | 48–46 | -0.8 | -1.0 | +2.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 14 | TEN @ LV | 42–21 | +4.0 | +3.0 | +21.0 | 17.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 14 | WAS @ GB | 15–20 | -13.4 | -13.0 | -5.0 | 8.4 |
| 2019 | 13 | BUF @ DAL | 26–15 | -5.1 | -6.5 | +11.0 | 16.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 13 | CHI @ DET | 24–20 | +3.9 | +5.5 | +4.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 13 | CLE @ PIT | 13–20 | +2.6 | +1.0 | -7.0 | 9.6 |
| 2019 | 13 | GB @ NYG | 31–13 | +5.3 | +6.5 | +18.0 | 12.7 |
| 2019 | 13 | LA @ ARI | 34–7 | +1.9 | +2.5 | +27.0 | 25.1 |
| 2019 | 13 | LAC @ DEN | 20–23 | +2.7 | +4.5 | -3.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 13 | MIN @ SEA | 30–37 | +1.1 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 8.1 |
| 2019 | 13 | NE @ HOU | 22–28 | +3.8 | +3.5 | -6.0 | 9.8 |
| 2019 | 13 | NO @ ATL | 26–18 | +7.4 | +7.0 | +8.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 13 | NYJ @ CIN | 6–22 | +5.3 | +2.5 | -16.0 | 21.3 |
| 2019 | 13 | LV @ KC | 9–40 | -11.7 | -11.5 | -31.0 | 19.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 13 | PHI @ MIA | 31–37 | +9.1 | +10.5 | -6.0 | 15.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 13 | SF @ BAL | 17–20 | -11.6 | -5.5 | -3.0 | 8.6 |
| 2019 | 13 | TB @ JAX | 28–11 | +3.4 | +3.0 | +17.0 | 13.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 13 | TEN @ IND | 31–17 | -0.3 | +1.0 | +14.0 | 14.3 |
| 2019 | 13 | WAS @ CAR | 29–21 | -11.2 | -10.5 | +8.0 | 19.2 |
| 2019 | 12 | BAL @ LA | 45–6 | +8.2 | +3.5 | +39.0 | 30.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 12 | CAR @ NO | 31–34 | -12.7 | -10.0 | -3.0 | 9.7 |
| 2019 | 12 | DAL @ NE | 9–13 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -4.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 12 | DEN @ BUF | 3–20 | -4.6 | -3.5 | -17.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 12 | DET @ WAS | 16–19 | +6.2 | +4.0 | -3.0 | 9.2 |
| 2019 | 12 | GB @ SF | 8–37 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -29.0 | 26.6 |
| 2019 | 12 | IND @ HOU | 17–20 | -2.0 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.0 |
| 2019 | 12 | JAX @ TEN | 20–42 | -3.3 | -4.5 | -22.0 | 18.7 |
| 2019 | 12 | MIA @ CLE | 24–41 | -11.5 | -11.0 | -17.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.