Backtest History
269 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 15 | HOU @ IND | 20–27 | -7.7 | -7.5 | -7.0 | 0.7 |
| 2020 | 15 | JAX @ BAL | 14–40 | -13.0 | -13.0 | -26.0 | 13.0 |
| 2020 | 15 | KC @ NO | 32–29 | -2.1 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 5.1 |
| 2020 | 15 | LAC @ LV | 30–27 | -0.1 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 15 | NE @ MIA | 12–22 | -1.1 | +1.5 | -10.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 15 | NYJ @ LA | 23–20 | -17.8 | -17.5 | +3.0 | 20.8 |
| 2020 | 15 | PHI @ ARI | 26–33 | -5.2 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 1.8 |
| 2020 | 15 | PIT @ CIN | 17–27 | +16.7 | +14.5 | -10.0 | 26.7 |
| 2020 | 15 | SEA @ WAS | 20–15 | +4.7 | +6.0 | +5.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 15 | SF @ DAL | 33–41 | +2.4 | +4.0 | -8.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 15 | TB @ ATL | 31–27 | +5.0 | +6.0 | +4.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 14 | ARI @ NYG | 26–7 | +0.7 | +3.0 | +19.0 | 18.3 |
| 2020 | 14 | ATL @ LAC | 17–20 | +1.6 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 4.6 |
| 2020 | 14 | BAL @ CLE | 47–42 | +2.6 | +3.0 | +5.0 | 2.4 |
| 2020 | 14 | DAL @ CIN | 30–7 | +3.5 | +3.0 | +23.0 | 19.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 14 | DEN @ CAR | 32–27 | -4.0 | -4.0 | +5.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 14 | GB @ DET | 31–24 | +12.8 | +9.5 | +7.0 | 5.8 |
| 2020 | 14 | HOU @ CHI | 7–36 | +3.4 | +1.0 | -29.0 | 32.4 |
| 2020 | 14 | IND @ LV | 44–27 | +3.6 | +2.5 | +17.0 | 13.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 14 | KC @ MIA | 33–27 | +7.0 | +7.5 | +6.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 14 | MIN @ TB | 14–26 | -5.4 | -7.0 | -12.0 | 6.6 |
| 2020 | 14 | NE @ LA | 3–24 | -4.3 | -5.0 | -21.0 | 16.7 |
| 2020 | 14 | NO @ PHI | 21–24 | +7.6 | +7.5 | -3.0 | 10.6 |
| 2020 | 14 | NYJ @ SEA | 3–40 | -12.8 | -16.5 | -37.0 | 24.2 |
| 2020 | 14 | PIT @ BUF | 15–26 | -2.4 | -2.0 | -11.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 14 | TEN @ JAX | 31–10 | +6.7 | +7.5 | +21.0 | 14.3 |
| 2020 | 14 | WAS vs SF | 23–15 | -2.3 | -3.0 | +8.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | BUF vs SF | 34–24 | -0.4 | -1.5 | +10.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | CIN @ MIA | 7–19 | -10.8 | -10.5 | -12.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | CLE @ TEN | 41–35 | -5.1 | -4.0 | +6.0 | 11.1 |
| 2020 | 13 | DAL @ BAL | 17–34 | -11.5 | -8.5 | -17.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | DEN @ KC | 16–22 | -13.8 | -13.0 | -6.0 | 7.8 |
| 2020 | 13 | DET @ CHI | 34–30 | -3.0 | -3.0 | +4.0 | 7.0 |
| 2020 | 13 | IND @ HOU | 26–20 | +1.0 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 5.0 |
| 2020 | 13 | JAX @ MIN | 24–27 | -9.6 | -10.5 | -3.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | LA @ ARI | 38–28 | -0.1 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 10.1 |
| 2020 | 13 | LV @ NYJ | 31–28 | +8.0 | +7.5 | +3.0 | 5.0 |
| 2020 | 13 | NE @ LAC | 45–0 | -3.5 | -2.5 | +45.0 | 48.5 |
| 2020 | 13 | NO @ ATL | 21–16 | +1.7 | +2.5 | +5.0 | 3.3 |
| 2020 | 13 | NYG @ SEA | 17–12 | -8.9 | -11.0 | +5.0 | 13.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | PHI @ GB | 16–30 | -11.2 | -8.0 | -14.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | WAS @ PIT | 23–17 | -6.2 | -5.5 | +6.0 | 12.2 |
| 2020 | 12 | ARI @ NE | 17–20 | +2.2 | +1.0 | -3.0 | 5.2 |
| 2020 | 12 | BAL @ PIT | 14–19 | -9.6 | -10.5 | -5.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 12 | CAR @ MIN | 27–28 | -2.5 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 12 | CHI @ GB | 25–41 | -7.9 | -7.5 | -16.0 | 8.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 12 | CLE @ JAX | 27–25 | +6.1 | +7.5 | +2.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 12 | HOU @ DET | 41–25 | +3.7 | +3.0 | +16.0 | 12.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 12 | KC @ TB | 27–24 | +3.8 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 0.8 |
| 2020 | 12 | LAC @ BUF | 17–27 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -10.0 | 7.5 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.