Backtest History

285 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.

NFL backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	16	DAL @ MIA	20–22	-2.1	-1.5	-2.0	0.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	16	DET @ MIN	30–24	-1.4	+2.5	+6.0	7.4
2023	16	GB @ CAR	33–30	+5.9	+3.5	+3.0	2.9
2023	16	IND @ ATL	10–29	-2.1	-3.0	-19.0	16.9
2023	16	JAX @ TB	12–30	-0.3	+2.0	-18.0	17.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	16	LV @ KC	20–14	-8.8	-11.0	+6.0	14.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	16	NE @ DEN	26–23	-6.2	-7.0	+3.0	9.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	16	NO @ LA	22–30	-2.7	-4.0	-8.0	5.3
2023	16	NYG @ PHI	25–33	-13.8	-14.0	-8.0	5.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	16	SEA @ TEN	20–17	+2.0	+3.0	+3.0	1.0
2023	16	WAS @ NYJ	28–30	-5.1	-3.0	-2.0	3.1
2023	15	ATL @ CAR	7–9	+4.9	+3.0	-2.0	6.9
2023	15	BAL @ JAX	23–7	+4.8	+4.0	+16.0	11.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	15	CHI @ CLE	17–20	-2.8	-3.0	-3.0	0.2
2023	15	DAL @ BUF	10–31	+2.3	-2.0	-21.0	23.3
2023	15	DEN @ DET	17–42	-1.4	-5.5	-25.0	23.6
2023	15	HOU @ TEN	19–16	-5.2	-3.0	+3.0	8.2
2023	15	KC @ NE	27–17	+7.6	+10.0	+10.0	2.4
2023	15	LAC @ LV	21–63	-1.3	-3.0	-42.0	40.7
2023	15	MIN @ CIN	24–27	-1.4	-3.0	-3.0	1.6
2023	15	NYG @ NO	6–24	-6.3	-6.0	-18.0	11.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	15	NYJ @ MIA	0–30	-8.1	-7.5	-30.0	21.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	15	PHI @ SEA	17–20	+3.4	+5.0	-3.0	6.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	15	PIT @ IND	13–30	-0.7	-1.5	-17.0	16.3
2023	15	SF @ ARI	45–29	+15.3	+12.5	+16.0	0.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	15	TB @ GB	34–20	-6.3	-4.0	+14.0	20.3
2023	15	WAS @ LA	20–28	-9.1	-6.5	-8.0	1.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	BUF @ KC	20–17	-1.0	-2.0	+3.0	4.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	CAR @ NO	6–28	-7.8	-5.5	-22.0	14.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	DEN @ LAC	24–7	-1.4	-3.0	+17.0	18.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	DET @ CHI	13–28	+1.3	+3.0	-15.0	16.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	GB @ NYG	22–24	+9.8	+6.0	-2.0	11.8
2023	14	HOU @ NYJ	6–30	+4.6	+3.5	-24.0	28.6
2023	14	IND @ CIN	14–34	-4.7	-3.0	-20.0	15.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	JAX @ CLE	27–31	-0.5	-2.5	-4.0	3.5
2023	14	LA @ BAL	31–37	-8.6	-7.5	-6.0	2.6
2023	14	MIN @ LV	3–0	+2.2	+3.0	+3.0	0.8
2023	14	NE @ PIT	21–18	-8.0	-6.0	+3.0	11.0
2023	14	PHI @ DAL	13–33	-6.9	-3.5	-20.0	13.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	SEA @ SF	16–28	-15.7	-14.5	-12.0	3.7
2023	14	TB @ ATL	29–25	-2.2	-1.5	+4.0	6.2
2023	14	TEN @ MIA	28–27	-14.3	-14.0	+1.0	15.3
2023	13	ARI @ PIT	24–10	-9.6	-6.0	+14.0	23.6
2023	13	ATL @ NYJ	13–8	+1.3	+2.0	+5.0	3.7
2023	13	CAR @ TB	18–21	-6.3	-4.0	-3.0	3.3
2023	13	CIN @ JAX	34–31	-9.3	-10.0	+3.0	12.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	CLE @ LA	19–36	-1.3	-3.5	-17.0	15.7
2023	13	DEN @ HOU	17–22	-2.4	-3.5	-5.0	2.6
2023	13	DET @ NO	33–28	-0.0	+4.0	+5.0	5.0
2023	13	IND @ TEN	31–28	+1.3	+1.5	+3.0	1.7

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.