Backtest History
285 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16 | JAX @ LV | 14–19 | -3.0 | -2.5 | -5.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | LA @ NYJ | 19–9 | +2.6 | +3.0 | +10.0 | 7.4 |
| 2024 | 16 | MIN @ SEA | 27–24 | +4.3 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2024 | 16 | NE @ BUF | 21–24 | -17.1 | -14.0 | -3.0 | 14.1 |
| 2024 | 16 | NO @ GB | 0–34 | -17.6 | -14.0 | -34.0 | 16.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | NYG @ ATL | 7–34 | -6.7 | -9.5 | -27.0 | 20.3 |
| 2024 | 16 | PHI @ WAS | 33–36 | +1.1 | +4.0 | -3.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | PIT @ BAL | 17–34 | -9.1 | -7.0 | -17.0 | 7.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | SF @ MIA | 17–29 | +1.3 | +2.0 | -12.0 | 13.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | TB @ DAL | 24–26 | +6.5 | +4.5 | -2.0 | 8.5 |
| 2024 | 16 | TEN @ IND | 30–38 | -3.4 | -4.0 | -8.0 | 4.6 |
| 2024 | 15 | ATL @ LV | 15–9 | +3.7 | +6.5 | +6.0 | 2.3 |
| 2024 | 15 | BAL @ NYG | 35–14 | +17.4 | +16.5 | +21.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 15 | BUF @ DET | 48–42 | -3.4 | -2.5 | +6.0 | 9.4 |
| 2024 | 15 | CHI @ MIN | 12–30 | -8.6 | -7.0 | -18.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 15 | CIN @ TEN | 37–27 | +5.9 | +6.0 | +10.0 | 4.1 |
| 2024 | 15 | DAL @ CAR | 30–14 | -2.4 | -2.5 | +16.0 | 18.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 15 | GB @ SEA | 30–13 | +3.9 | +3.0 | +17.0 | 13.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 15 | IND @ DEN | 13–31 | -7.4 | -4.5 | -18.0 | 10.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 15 | KC @ CLE | 21–7 | +5.1 | +4.5 | +14.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 15 | LA @ SF | 12–6 | -4.8 | -3.0 | +6.0 | 10.8 |
| 2024 | 15 | MIA @ HOU | 12–20 | +0.2 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 8.2 |
| 2024 | 15 | NE @ ARI | 17–30 | -7.7 | -6.0 | -13.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 15 | NYJ @ JAX | 32–25 | +3.3 | +3.5 | +7.0 | 3.7 |
| 2024 | 15 | PIT @ PHI | 13–27 | -4.7 | -5.5 | -14.0 | 9.3 |
| 2024 | 15 | TB @ LAC | 40–17 | -2.6 | -3.0 | +23.0 | 25.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 15 | WAS @ NO | 20–19 | +11.2 | +7.5 | +1.0 | 10.2 |
| 2024 | 14 | ATL @ MIN | 21–42 | -7.3 | -6.0 | -21.0 | 13.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | BUF @ LA | 42–44 | +5.9 | +3.5 | -2.0 | 7.9 |
| 2024 | 14 | CAR @ PHI | 16–22 | -15.9 | -14.0 | -6.0 | 9.9 |
| 2024 | 14 | CHI @ SF | 13–38 | -2.9 | -3.0 | -25.0 | 22.1 |
| 2024 | 14 | CIN @ DAL | 27–20 | +6.0 | +5.0 | +7.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | CLE @ PIT | 14–27 | -7.5 | -6.0 | -13.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | GB @ DET | 31–34 | -5.6 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 2.6 |
| 2024 | 14 | JAX @ TEN | 10–6 | -4.4 | -3.0 | +4.0 | 8.4 |
| 2024 | 14 | LAC @ KC | 17–19 | -3.8 | -5.0 | -2.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | LV @ TB | 13–28 | -7.8 | -7.0 | -15.0 | 7.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | NO @ NYG | 14–11 | +6.7 | +5.5 | +3.0 | 3.7 |
| 2024 | 14 | NYJ @ MIA | 26–32 | -9.0 | -6.5 | -6.0 | 3.0 |
| 2024 | 14 | SEA @ ARI | 30–18 | -4.7 | -3.0 | +12.0 | 16.7 |
| 2024 | 13 | ARI @ MIN | 22–23 | -3.4 | -3.5 | -1.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | CHI @ DET | 20–23 | -13.4 | -9.5 | -3.0 | 10.4 |
| 2024 | 13 | CLE @ DEN | 32–41 | -9.4 | -6.5 | -9.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | HOU @ JAX | 23–20 | +7.7 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 4.7 |
| 2024 | 13 | IND @ NE | 25–24 | +4.6 | +2.5 | +1.0 | 3.6 |
| 2024 | 13 | LA @ NO | 21–14 | -1.7 | +2.5 | +7.0 | 8.7 |
| 2024 | 13 | LAC @ ATL | 17–13 | +3.0 | +1.0 | +4.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | LV @ KC | 17–19 | -13.8 | -13.5 | -2.0 | 11.8 |
| 2024 | 13 | MIA @ GB | 17–30 | -2.6 | -3.5 | -13.0 | 10.4 |
| 2024 | 13 | NYG @ DAL | 20–27 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -7.0 | 4.5 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.