Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3 | KC @ IND | 17–20 | +7.7 | +4.5 | -3.0 | 10.7 |
| 2022 | 3 | LA @ ARI | 20–12 | +2.3 | +3.5 | +8.0 | 5.7 |
| 2022 | 3 | LV @ TEN | 22–24 | +0.7 | +1.5 | -2.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | NO @ CAR | 14–22 | -0.0 | +2.0 | -8.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | PHI @ WAS | 24–8 | +7.5 | +6.0 | +16.0 | 8.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | PIT @ CLE | 17–29 | -4.4 | -4.5 | -12.0 | 7.6 |
| 2022 | 3 | SF @ DEN | 10–11 | +1.1 | +1.0 | -1.0 | 2.1 |
| 2022 | 2 | ARI @ LV | 29–23 | -5.8 | -5.5 | +6.0 | 11.8 |
| 2022 | 2 | ATL @ LA | 27–31 | -6.0 | -10.5 | -4.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | CAR @ NYG | 16–19 | -0.6 | +1.0 | -3.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | CHI @ GB | 10–27 | -5.2 | -10.5 | -17.0 | 11.8 |
| 2022 | 2 | CIN @ DAL | 17–20 | +5.4 | +7.5 | -3.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | HOU @ DEN | 9–16 | -10.2 | -10.5 | -7.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | IND @ JAX | 0–24 | +3.0 | +3.0 | -24.0 | 27.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | LAC @ KC | 24–27 | -6.6 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 3.6 |
| 2022 | 2 | MIA @ BAL | 42–38 | -2.5 | -3.0 | +4.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | MIN @ PHI | 7–24 | -0.8 | -2.5 | -17.0 | 16.2 |
| 2022 | 2 | NE @ PIT | 17–14 | -1.4 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 4.4 |
| 2022 | 2 | NYJ @ CLE | 31–30 | -7.9 | -6.5 | +1.0 | 8.9 |
| 2022 | 2 | SEA @ SF | 7–27 | -8.3 | -8.5 | -20.0 | 11.7 |
| 2022 | 2 | TB @ NO | 20–10 | +4.6 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | TEN @ BUF | 7–41 | -11.8 | -10.0 | -34.0 | 22.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | WAS @ DET | 27–36 | +1.6 | +1.0 | -9.0 | 10.6 |
| 2022 | 1 | BAL @ NYJ | 24–9 | +6.0 | +6.5 | +15.0 | 9.0 |
| 2022 | 1 | BUF @ LA | 31–10 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +21.0 | 20.4 |
| 2022 | 1 | CLE @ CAR | 26–24 | -2.4 | -2.5 | +2.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | DEN @ SEA | 16–17 | +5.5 | +6.0 | -1.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | GB @ MIN | 7–23 | +0.8 | -2.5 | -16.0 | 16.8 |
| 2022 | 1 | IND @ HOU | 20–20 | +6.1 | +7.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | JAX @ WAS | 22–28 | -4.3 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | KC @ ARI | 44–21 | +7.3 | +6.0 | +23.0 | 15.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | LV @ LAC | 19–24 | -6.8 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 1.8 |
| 2022 | 1 | NE @ MIA | 7–20 | -1.7 | -3.0 | -13.0 | 11.3 |
| 2022 | 1 | NO @ ATL | 27–26 | +6.2 | +6.0 | +1.0 | 5.2 |
| 2022 | 1 | NYG @ TEN | 21–20 | -7.8 | -5.5 | +1.0 | 8.8 |
| 2022 | 1 | PHI @ DET | 38–35 | +4.2 | +6.0 | +3.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | PIT @ CIN | 23–20 | -8.2 | -7.5 | +3.0 | 11.2 |
| 2022 | 1 | SF @ CHI | 10–19 | +8.2 | +6.5 | -9.0 | 17.2 |
| 2022 | 1 | TB @ DAL | 19–3 | +0.8 | +2.5 | +16.0 | 15.2 |
| 2021 | 22 | LA vs CIN | 23–20 | +3.8 | +4.5 | +3.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 21 | CIN @ KC | 27–24 | -8.6 | -7.0 | +3.0 | 11.6 |
| 2021 | 21 | SF @ LA | 17–20 | -3.3 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 20 | BUF @ KC | 36–42 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -6.0 | 3.9 |
| 2021 | 20 | CIN @ TEN | 19–16 | -2.6 | -4.0 | +3.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 20 | LA @ TB | 30–27 | -4.4 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 7.4 |
| 2021 | 20 | SF @ GB | 13–10 | -4.0 | -5.5 | +3.0 | 7.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 19 | ARI @ LA | 11–34 | -4.2 | -4.0 | -23.0 | 18.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 19 | LV @ CIN | 19–26 | -9.3 | -6.0 | -7.0 | 2.3 |
| 2021 | 19 | NE @ BUF | 17–47 | -2.8 | -4.5 | -30.0 | 27.2 |
| 2021 | 19 | PHI @ TB | 15–31 | -8.9 | -7.5 | -16.0 | 7.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.