Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13 | KC @ DAL | 28–31 | +4.9 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 7.9 |
| 2025 | 13 | LA @ CAR | 28–31 | +13.3 | +10.0 | -3.0 | 16.3 |
| 2025 | 13 | LV @ LAC | 14–31 | -11.4 | -10.0 | -17.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | MIN @ SEA | 0–26 | -14.7 | -12.5 | -26.0 | 11.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | NO @ MIA | 17–21 | -4.4 | -5.5 | -4.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | NYG @ NE | 15–33 | -7.5 | -7.0 | -18.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | SF @ CLE | 26–8 | +7.3 | +5.5 | +18.0 | 10.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | ATL @ NO | 24–10 | -2.4 | -1.5 | +14.0 | 16.4 |
| 2025 | 12 | BUF @ HOU | 19–23 | +2.6 | +5.5 | -4.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | CAR @ SF | 9–20 | -10.3 | -7.5 | -11.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | CLE @ LV | 24–10 | -0.8 | -3.0 | +14.0 | 14.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | IND @ KC | 20–23 | -4.3 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2025 | 12 | JAX @ ARI | 27–24 | +2.4 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 0.6 |
| 2025 | 12 | MIN @ GB | 6–23 | -9.6 | -6.5 | -17.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | NE @ CIN | 26–20 | +8.3 | +7.5 | +6.0 | 2.3 |
| 2025 | 12 | NYG @ DET | 27–34 | -12.1 | -14.0 | -7.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | NYJ @ BAL | 10–23 | -12.9 | -14.0 | -13.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | PHI @ DAL | 21–24 | +3.8 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 6.8 |
| 2025 | 12 | PIT @ CHI | 28–31 | -3.3 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.3 |
| 2025 | 12 | SEA @ TEN | 30–24 | +15.7 | +12.5 | +6.0 | 9.7 |
| 2025 | 12 | TB @ LA | 7–34 | -9.1 | -7.0 | -27.0 | 17.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | BAL @ CLE | 23–16 | +7.3 | +7.5 | +7.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | CAR @ ATL | 30–27 | -5.6 | -4.5 | +3.0 | 8.6 |
| 2025 | 11 | CHI @ MIN | 19–17 | +1.5 | -3.0 | +2.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | CIN @ PIT | 12–34 | -3.8 | -5.5 | -22.0 | 18.2 |
| 2025 | 11 | DAL @ LV | 33–16 | +3.2 | +3.5 | +17.0 | 13.8 |
| 2025 | 11 | DET @ PHI | 9–16 | -1.8 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 5.2 |
| 2025 | 11 | GB @ NYG | 27–20 | +6.4 | +7.5 | +7.0 | 0.6 |
| 2025 | 11 | HOU @ TEN | 16–13 | +8.3 | +5.5 | +3.0 | 5.3 |
| 2025 | 11 | KC @ DEN | 19–22 | +4.4 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 7.4 |
| 2025 | 11 | LAC @ JAX | 6–35 | +2.6 | +3.0 | -29.0 | 31.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | NYJ @ NE | 14–27 | -13.6 | -12.5 | -13.0 | 0.6 |
| 2025 | 11 | SEA @ LA | 19–21 | +0.3 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 2.3 |
| 2025 | 11 | SF @ ARI | 41–22 | +6.7 | +3.5 | +19.0 | 12.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | TB @ BUF | 32–44 | -5.3 | -6.0 | -12.0 | 6.7 |
| 2025 | 11 | WAS vs MIA | 13–16 | -3.3 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | ARI @ SEA | 22–44 | -9.0 | -7.0 | -22.0 | 13.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | ATL vs IND | 25–31 | -7.4 | -6.5 | -6.0 | 1.4 |
| 2025 | 10 | BAL @ MIN | 27–19 | +8.9 | +4.5 | +8.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | BUF @ MIA | 13–30 | +10.4 | +8.5 | -17.0 | 27.4 |
| 2025 | 10 | CLE @ NYJ | 20–27 | -0.7 | +1.5 | -7.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | DET @ WAS | 44–22 | +8.4 | +8.5 | +22.0 | 13.6 |
| 2025 | 10 | JAX @ HOU | 29–36 | -2.3 | +1.5 | -7.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | LA @ SF | 42–26 | +5.2 | +5.5 | +16.0 | 10.8 |
| 2025 | 10 | LV @ DEN | 7–10 | -11.9 | -9.5 | -3.0 | 8.9 |
| 2025 | 10 | NE @ TB | 28–23 | -0.1 | -2.5 | +5.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | NO @ CAR | 17–7 | -4.3 | -5.5 | +10.0 | 14.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | NYG @ CHI | 20–24 | -5.5 | -4.5 | -4.0 | 1.5 |
| 2025 | 10 | PHI @ GB | 10–7 | -1.3 | -1.5 | +3.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | PIT @ LAC | 10–25 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -15.0 | 11.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.