Backtest History
267 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 12 | MIA @ NE | 17–35 | -18.9 | -17.0 | -18.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 12 | MIN @ DET | 30–23 | +3.1 | +2.5 | +7.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 12 | NO @ LA | 20–26 | -1.4 | -2.5 | -6.0 | 4.6 |
| 2017 | 12 | NYG @ WAS | 10–20 | -6.0 | -7.0 | -10.0 | 4.0 |
| 2017 | 12 | SEA @ SF | 24–13 | +8.4 | +7.0 | +11.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 12 | TB @ ATL | 20–34 | -9.6 | -10.5 | -14.0 | 4.4 |
| 2017 | 12 | TEN @ IND | 20–16 | +2.4 | +3.0 | +4.0 | 1.6 |
| 2017 | 11 | ARI @ HOU | 21–31 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -10.0 | 7.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 11 | ATL @ SEA | 34–31 | -2.7 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 5.7 |
| 2017 | 11 | BAL @ GB | 23–0 | +2.0 | +2.5 | +23.0 | 21.0 |
| 2017 | 11 | BUF @ LAC | 24–54 | -7.6 | -7.0 | -30.0 | 22.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 11 | CIN @ DEN | 20–17 | +0.8 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 11 | DET @ CHI | 27–24 | +5.1 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 2.1 |
| 2017 | 11 | JAX @ CLE | 19–7 | +13.0 | +7.5 | +12.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 11 | KC @ NYG | 9–12 | +7.9 | +10.0 | -3.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 11 | LA @ MIN | 7–24 | +1.0 | -1.0 | -17.0 | 18.0 |
| 2017 | 11 | NE vs LV | 33–8 | +9.7 | +7.0 | +25.0 | 15.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 11 | PHI @ DAL | 37–9 | +6.4 | +6.0 | +28.0 | 21.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 11 | TB @ MIA | 30–20 | +2.5 | +1.0 | +10.0 | 7.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 11 | TEN @ PIT | 17–40 | -7.3 | -7.0 | -23.0 | 15.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 11 | WAS @ NO | 31–34 | -11.9 | -9.5 | -3.0 | 8.9 |
| 2017 | 10 | CIN @ TEN | 20–24 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -4.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | CLE @ DET | 24–38 | -13.7 | -10.5 | -14.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | DAL @ ATL | 7–27 | +0.1 | -3.5 | -20.0 | 20.1 |
| 2017 | 10 | GB @ CHI | 23–16 | -4.2 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 11.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | HOU @ LA | 7–33 | -13.8 | -12.0 | -26.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | LAC @ JAX | 17–20 | -8.8 | -5.0 | -3.0 | 5.8 |
| 2017 | 10 | MIA @ CAR | 21–45 | -8.2 | -8.0 | -24.0 | 15.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | MIN @ WAS | 38–30 | +1.9 | +1.0 | +8.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | NE @ DEN | 41–16 | +8.8 | +7.0 | +25.0 | 16.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | NO @ BUF | 47–10 | +4.3 | +2.0 | +37.0 | 32.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | NYG @ SF | 21–31 | +5.1 | +3.0 | -10.0 | 15.1 |
| 2017 | 10 | NYJ @ TB | 10–15 | +2.2 | -1.0 | -5.0 | 7.2 |
| 2017 | 10 | PIT @ IND | 20–17 | +10.4 | +10.5 | +3.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | SEA @ ARI | 22–16 | +8.0 | +6.0 | +6.0 | 2.0 |
| 2017 | 9 | ARI @ SF | 20–10 | +0.3 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 9.7 |
| 2017 | 9 | ATL @ CAR | 17–20 | +0.7 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 9 | BAL @ TEN | 20–23 | -4.1 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2017 | 9 | BUF @ NYJ | 21–34 | +2.6 | +3.0 | -13.0 | 15.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 9 | CIN @ JAX | 7–23 | -9.0 | -6.0 | -16.0 | 7.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 9 | DEN @ PHI | 23–51 | -8.7 | -7.0 | -28.0 | 19.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 9 | DET @ GB | 30–17 | +2.5 | +2.5 | +13.0 | 10.5 |
| 2017 | 9 | IND @ HOU | 20–14 | -6.9 | -6.0 | +6.0 | 12.9 |
| 2017 | 9 | KC @ DAL | 17–28 | -0.4 | -2.0 | -11.0 | 10.6 |
| 2017 | 9 | LA @ NYG | 51–17 | +5.4 | +5.5 | +34.0 | 28.6 |
| 2017 | 9 | LV @ MIA | 27–24 | +3.4 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.4 |
| 2017 | 9 | TB @ NO | 10–30 | -8.3 | -7.0 | -20.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 9 | WAS @ SEA | 17–14 | -8.0 | -8.0 | +3.0 | 11.0 |
| 2017 | 8 | ATL @ NYJ | 25–20 | +2.5 | +6.5 | +5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2017 | 8 | CAR @ TB | 17–3 | -3.2 | -1.5 | +14.0 | 17.2 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.