Backtest History

269 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.

NFL backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2020	12	LV @ ATL	6–43	+2.3	+3.5	-37.0	39.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	12	MIA @ NYJ	20–3	+12.1	+7.5	+17.0	4.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	12	NO @ DEN	31–3	+10.9	+17.0	+28.0	17.1
2020	12	NYG @ CIN	19–17	+6.9	+6.5	+2.0	4.9
2020	12	SEA @ PHI	23–17	+5.0	+6.5	+6.0	1.0
2020	12	SF @ LA	23–20	-3.9	-5.0	+3.0	6.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	12	TEN @ IND	45–26	-3.7	-3.0	+19.0	22.7
2020	12	WAS @ DAL	41–16	+0.6	-2.5	+25.0	24.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	11	ARI @ SEA	21–28	+0.2	-3.0	-7.0	7.2
2020	11	ATL @ NO	9–24	-0.7	-3.5	-15.0	14.3
2020	11	CIN @ WAS	9–20	-1.3	-2.0	-11.0	9.7
2020	11	DAL @ MIN	31–28	-9.5	-7.0	+3.0	12.5
2020	11	DET @ CAR	0–20	+3.5	+3.0	-20.0	23.5
2020	11	GB @ IND	31–34	+0.2	-1.5	-3.0	3.2
2020	11	KC @ LV	35–31	+6.9	+7.5	+4.0	2.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	11	LA @ TB	27–24	-4.5	-4.0	+3.0	7.5
2020	11	MIA @ DEN	13–20	+5.8	+4.0	-7.0	12.8
2020	11	NE @ HOU	20–27	+2.0	+2.5	-7.0	9.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	11	NYJ @ LAC	28–34	-10.9	-10.0	-6.0	4.9
2020	11	PHI @ CLE	17–22	-2.0	-2.5	-5.0	3.0
2020	11	PIT @ JAX	27–3	+12.8	+11.0	+24.0	11.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	11	TEN @ BAL	30–24	-6.5	-6.0	+6.0	12.5
2020	10	BAL @ NE	17–23	+7.9	+7.0	-6.0	13.9
2020	10	BUF @ ARI	30–32	-1.9	-3.0	-2.0	0.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	10	CIN @ PIT	10–36	-5.2	-6.5	-26.0	20.8
2020	10	DEN @ LV	12–37	-2.7	-3.5	-25.0	22.3
2020	10	HOU @ CLE	7–10	-3.2	-4.5	-3.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	10	IND @ TEN	34–17	+0.5	+1.0	+17.0	16.5
2020	10	JAX @ GB	20–24	-15.8	-13.5	-4.0	11.8
2020	10	LAC @ MIA	21–29	+0.5	-1.0	-8.0	8.5
2020	10	MIN @ CHI	19–13	+3.9	+3.5	+6.0	2.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	10	PHI @ NYG	17–27	+2.3	+4.5	-10.0	12.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	10	SEA @ LA	16–23	-1.1	-3.0	-7.0	5.9
2020	10	SF @ NO	13–27	-8.5	-9.5	-14.0	5.5
2020	10	TB @ CAR	46–23	+2.7	+6.0	+23.0	20.3
2020	10	WAS @ DET	27–30	-0.3	-2.5	-3.0	2.7
2020	9	BAL @ IND	24–10	-1.0	-1.0	+14.0	15.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	9	CAR @ KC	31–33	-10.7	-10.0	-2.0	8.7
2020	9	CHI @ TEN	17–24	-4.9	-6.5	-7.0	2.1
2020	9	DEN @ ATL	27–34	-4.9	-4.5	-7.0	2.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	9	DET @ MIN	20–34	-4.2	-3.0	-14.0	9.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	9	GB @ SF	34–17	+2.6	+6.0	+17.0	14.4
2020	9	HOU @ JAX	27–25	+6.8	+7.0	+2.0	4.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	9	LV @ LAC	31–26	-2.0	+1.0	+5.0	7.0
2020	9	MIA @ ARI	34–31	-6.6	-6.0	+3.0	9.6
2020	9	NE @ NYJ	30–27	+8.7	+9.5	+3.0	5.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	9	NO @ TB	38–3	-4.8	-3.0	+35.0	39.8
2020	9	NYG @ WAS	23–20	-2.9	-3.0	+3.0	5.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	9	PIT @ DAL	24–19	+14.8	+14.0	+5.0	9.8
2020	9	SEA @ BUF	34–44	+3.5	+3.0	-10.0	13.5

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.