Backtest History

285 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.

NFL backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2021	13	NYG @ MIA	9–20	-8.6	-6.5	-11.0	2.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	PHI @ NYJ	33–18	+8.2	+5.0	+15.0	6.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	SF @ SEA	23–30	+4.6	+3.0	-7.0	11.6
2021	13	TB @ ATL	30–17	+10.9	+11.0	+13.0	2.1
2021	13	WAS @ LV	17–15	+0.9	-1.0	+2.0	1.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	ATL @ JAX	21–14	+1.1	+1.5	+7.0	5.9
2021	12	BUF @ NO	31–6	+6.1	+7.0	+25.0	18.9
2021	12	CAR @ MIA	10–33	+1.2	+1.0	-23.0	24.2
2021	12	CHI @ DET	16–14	+7.2	+2.0	+2.0	5.2
2021	12	CLE @ BAL	10–16	-2.6	-3.0	-6.0	3.4
2021	12	LA @ GB	28–36	-3.3	+2.0	-8.0	4.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	LAC @ DEN	13–28	+1.5	+2.5	-15.0	16.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	LV @ DAL	36–33	-9.0	-7.0	+3.0	12.0
2021	12	MIN @ SF	26–34	-4.4	-3.5	-8.0	3.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	NYJ @ HOU	21–14	-6.4	-3.0	+7.0	13.4
2021	12	PHI @ NYG	7–13	+6.0	+4.0	-6.0	12.0
2021	12	PIT @ CIN	10–41	-1.9	-3.5	-31.0	29.1
2021	12	SEA @ WAS	15–17	-0.3	+1.0	-2.0	1.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	TB @ IND	38–31	+1.0	+3.0	+7.0	6.0
2021	12	TEN @ NE	13–36	-7.1	-7.5	-23.0	15.9
2021	11	ARI @ SEA	23–13	-3.2	-2.5	+10.0	13.2
2021	11	BAL @ CHI	16–13	-3.2	+5.0	+3.0	6.2
2021	11	CIN @ LV	32–13	-0.6	+1.0	+19.0	19.6
2021	11	DAL @ KC	9–19	+2.3	-2.5	-10.0	12.3
2021	11	DET @ CLE	10–13	-13.3	-13.0	-3.0	10.3
2021	11	GB @ MIN	31–34	+2.2	+1.0	-3.0	5.2
2021	11	HOU @ TEN	22–13	-12.5	-10.5	+9.0	21.5
2021	11	IND @ BUF	41–15	-6.2	-7.5	+26.0	32.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	MIA @ NYJ	24–17	+5.8	+3.5	+7.0	1.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	NE @ ATL	25–0	+9.9	+7.0	+25.0	15.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	NO @ PHI	29–40	-1.8	-2.5	-11.0	9.2
2021	11	NYG @ TB	10–30	-11.2	-11.5	-20.0	8.8
2021	11	PIT @ LAC	37–41	-3.9	-5.5	-4.0	0.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	SF @ JAX	30–10	+7.7	+6.5	+20.0	12.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	WAS @ CAR	27–21	-5.4	-3.5	+6.0	11.4
2021	10	ATL @ DAL	3–43	-6.7	-8.0	-40.0	33.3
2021	10	BAL @ MIA	10–22	+5.9	+8.5	-12.0	17.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	10	BUF @ NYJ	45–17	+12.0	+13.0	+28.0	16.0
2021	10	CAR @ ARI	34–10	-10.4	-7.0	+24.0	34.4
2021	10	CLE @ NE	7–45	-0.5	-2.5	-38.0	37.5
2021	10	DET @ PIT	16–16	-10.4	-9.0	0.0	10.4
2021	10	JAX @ IND	17–23	-12.7	-10.5	-6.0	6.7
2021	10	KC @ LV	41–14	-1.8	+2.5	+27.0	28.8
2021	10	LA @ SF	10–31	+3.3	+3.5	-21.0	24.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	10	MIN @ LAC	27–20	-2.5	-3.0	+7.0	9.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	10	NO @ TEN	21–23	-7.4	-3.0	-2.0	5.4
2021	10	PHI @ DEN	30–13	-3.4	-1.0	+17.0	20.4
2021	10	SEA @ GB	0–17	-1.8	-3.0	-17.0	15.2
2021	10	TB @ WAS	19–29	+10.9	+10.0	-10.0	20.9
2021	9	ARI @ SF	31–17	-4.8	-5.5	+14.0	18.8 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.