Backtest History

285 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.

NFL backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	13	KC @ GB	19–27	+2.9	+5.5	-8.0	10.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	LAC @ NE	6–0	+4.1	+4.5	+6.0	1.9
2023	13	MIA @ WAS	45–15	+8.0	+8.5	+30.0	22.0
2023	13	SEA @ DAL	35–41	-13.6	-9.5	-6.0	7.6
2023	13	SF @ PHI	42–19	+3.0	+3.0	+23.0	20.0
2023	12	BAL @ LAC	20–10	+3.3	+3.0	+10.0	6.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	BUF @ PHI	34–37	-3.7	-2.5	-3.0	0.7
2023	12	CAR @ TEN	10–17	-5.7	-3.5	-7.0	1.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	CHI @ MIN	12–10	-4.3	-3.0	+2.0	6.3
2023	12	CLE @ DEN	12–29	-1.8	-1.5	-17.0	15.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	GB @ DET	29–22	-5.4	-8.5	+7.0	12.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	JAX @ HOU	24–21	+0.1	+1.0	+3.0	2.9
2023	12	KC @ LV	31–17	+9.0	+9.0	+14.0	5.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	LA @ ARI	37–14	+1.1	+3.0	+23.0	21.9
2023	12	MIA @ NYJ	34–13	+5.2	+9.5	+21.0	15.8
2023	12	NE @ NYG	7–10	+3.8	+4.5	-3.0	6.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	NO @ ATL	15–24	+2.3	+2.0	-9.0	11.3
2023	12	PIT @ CIN	16–10	+1.0	+2.0	+6.0	5.0
2023	12	SF @ SEA	31–13	+7.8	+7.0	+18.0	10.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	TB @ IND	20–27	-2.1	-2.5	-7.0	4.9
2023	12	WAS @ DAL	10–45	-15.7	-13.0	-35.0	19.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	ARI @ HOU	16–21	-7.6	-5.5	-5.0	2.6
2023	11	CHI @ DET	26–31	-7.4	-8.0	-5.0	2.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	CIN @ BAL	20–34	-6.1	-4.0	-14.0	7.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	DAL @ CAR	33–10	+15.4	+11.0	+23.0	7.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	LAC @ GB	20–23	+3.8	+3.0	-3.0	6.8
2023	11	LV @ MIA	13–20	-12.7	-14.0	-7.0	5.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	MIN @ DEN	20–21	-1.3	-2.5	-1.0	0.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	NYG @ WAS	31–19	-12.3	-7.5	+12.0	24.3
2023	11	NYJ @ BUF	6–32	-7.2	-8.0	-26.0	18.8
2023	11	PHI @ KC	21–17	-1.0	-2.5	+4.0	5.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	PIT @ CLE	10–13	-2.1	-2.5	-3.0	0.9
2023	11	SEA @ LA	16–17	-0.8	-2.5	-1.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	TB @ SF	14–27	-12.8	-13.5	-13.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	TEN @ JAX	14–34	-5.3	-6.5	-20.0	14.7
2023	10	ATL @ ARI	23–25	+0.9	+2.0	-2.0	2.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	CAR @ CHI	13–16	-6.5	-3.0	-3.0	3.5
2023	10	CLE @ BAL	33–31	-8.2	-6.0	+2.0	10.2
2023	10	DEN @ BUF	24–22	-8.8	-7.5	+2.0	10.8
2023	10	DET @ LAC	41–38	-3.2	+2.5	+3.0	6.2
2023	10	GB @ PIT	19–23	-3.8	-3.0	-4.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	HOU @ CIN	30–27	-4.2	-5.5	+3.0	7.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	IND vs NE	10–6	+2.4	+1.0	+4.0	1.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	NO @ MIN	19–27	+3.4	+3.0	-8.0	11.4
2023	10	NYG @ DAL	17–49	-21.6	-17.5	-32.0	10.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	NYJ @ LV	12–16	+0.9	+1.0	-4.0	4.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	10	SF @ JAX	34–3	+1.4	+3.0	+31.0	29.6
2023	10	TEN @ TB	6–20	-1.6	-2.5	-14.0	12.4
2023	10	WAS @ SEA	26–29	-5.0	-6.0	-3.0	2.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	9	ARI @ CLE	0–27	-11.4	-13.0	-27.0	15.6

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.