Backtest History
285 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 13 | PHI @ BAL | 24–19 | -4.1 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 9.1 |
| 2024 | 13 | PIT @ CIN | 44–38 | -2.9 | -3.0 | +6.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | SEA @ NYJ | 26–21 | -1.3 | -1.0 | +5.0 | 6.3 |
| 2024 | 13 | SF @ BUF | 10–35 | -5.3 | -6.5 | -25.0 | 19.7 |
| 2024 | 13 | TB @ CAR | 26–23 | +11.1 | +6.5 | +3.0 | 8.1 |
| 2024 | 13 | TEN @ WAS | 19–42 | -4.6 | -6.0 | -23.0 | 18.4 |
| 2024 | 12 | ARI @ SEA | 6–16 | +4.0 | +1.0 | -10.0 | 14.0 |
| 2024 | 12 | BAL @ LAC | 30–23 | +3.0 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | DAL @ WAS | 34–26 | -13.2 | -10.5 | +8.0 | 21.2 |
| 2024 | 12 | DEN @ LV | 29–19 | +9.5 | +6.5 | +10.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | DET @ IND | 24–6 | +11.3 | +7.0 | +18.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | KC @ CAR | 30–27 | +14.9 | +11.0 | +3.0 | 11.9 |
| 2024 | 12 | MIN @ CHI | 30–27 | +3.3 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 12 | NE @ MIA | 15–34 | -10.1 | -7.5 | -19.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | PHI @ LA | 37–20 | +3.3 | +3.0 | +17.0 | 13.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | PIT @ CLE | 19–24 | +3.4 | +3.5 | -5.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | SF @ GB | 10–38 | -9.3 | -6.5 | -28.0 | 18.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | TB @ NYG | 30–7 | +6.7 | +6.5 | +23.0 | 16.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | TEN @ HOU | 32–27 | -7.6 | -8.0 | +5.0 | 12.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | ATL @ DEN | 6–38 | -2.3 | -2.0 | -32.0 | 29.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | BAL @ PIT | 16–18 | +5.6 | +3.0 | -2.0 | 7.6 |
| 2024 | 11 | CIN @ LAC | 27–34 | -2.6 | -1.0 | -7.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | CLE @ NO | 14–35 | -2.7 | +1.0 | -21.0 | 18.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | GB @ CHI | 20–19 | +5.6 | +6.0 | +1.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | HOU @ DAL | 34–10 | +9.0 | +7.5 | +24.0 | 15.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | IND @ NYJ | 28–27 | -3.0 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | JAX @ DET | 6–52 | -17.1 | -14.0 | -46.0 | 28.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | KC @ BUF | 21–30 | -3.3 | -2.5 | -9.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | LA @ NE | 28–22 | +4.9 | +4.0 | +6.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | LV @ MIA | 19–34 | -9.5 | -8.0 | -15.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | MIN @ TEN | 23–13 | +6.6 | +6.0 | +10.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | SEA @ SF | 20–17 | -8.8 | -6.0 | +3.0 | 11.8 |
| 2024 | 11 | WAS @ PHI | 18–26 | -3.2 | -4.5 | -8.0 | 4.8 |
| 2024 | 10 | ATL @ NO | 17–20 | +0.4 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | BUF @ IND | 30–20 | +5.9 | +4.5 | +10.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | CIN @ BAL | 34–35 | -8.9 | -6.0 | -1.0 | 7.9 |
| 2024 | 10 | DEN @ KC | 14–16 | -7.8 | -7.5 | -2.0 | 5.8 |
| 2024 | 10 | DET @ HOU | 26–23 | +7.1 | +4.5 | +3.0 | 4.1 |
| 2024 | 10 | MIA @ LA | 23–15 | -0.7 | -2.5 | +8.0 | 8.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | MIN @ JAX | 12–7 | +9.8 | +7.0 | +5.0 | 4.8 |
| 2024 | 10 | NE @ CHI | 19–3 | -11.0 | -6.5 | +16.0 | 27.0 |
| 2024 | 10 | NYG vs CAR | 17–20 | +9.4 | +6.5 | -3.0 | 12.4 |
| 2024 | 10 | NYJ @ ARI | 6–31 | +0.8 | +2.0 | -25.0 | 25.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | PHI @ DAL | 34–6 | +10.1 | +7.5 | +28.0 | 17.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | PIT @ WAS | 28–27 | -4.3 | -1.5 | +1.0 | 5.3 |
| 2024 | 10 | SF @ TB | 23–20 | +3.3 | +6.5 | +3.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | TEN @ LAC | 17–27 | -10.3 | -8.0 | -10.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | CHI @ ARI | 9–29 | +1.1 | -1.5 | -20.0 | 21.1 |
| 2024 | 9 | DAL @ ATL | 21–27 | -5.6 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | DEN @ BAL | 10–41 | -8.8 | -9.0 | -31.0 | 22.2 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.