Backtest History

2761 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.

NFL backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2019	18	BUF @ HOU	19–22	+0.6	-2.5	-3.0	3.6
2019	18	MIN @ NO	26–20	-8.9	-7.5	+6.0	14.9
2019	18	SEA @ PHI	17–9	-0.0	-1.0	+8.0	8.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	18	TEN @ NE	20–13	-0.6	-4.5	+7.0	7.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	17	ARI @ LA	24–31	-7.4	-7.0	-7.0	0.4
2019	17	ATL @ TB	28–22	-2.4	-1.0	+6.0	8.4
2019	17	CHI @ MIN	21–19	+4.1	+5.5	+2.0	2.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	17	CLE @ CIN	23–33	+4.9	+2.5	-10.0	14.9
2019	17	GB @ DET	23–20	+11.5	+13.5	+3.0	8.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	17	IND @ JAX	20–38	+6.9	+5.0	-18.0	24.9
2019	17	LAC @ KC	21–31	-11.2	-10.0	-10.0	1.2
2019	17	MIA @ NE	27–24	-14.0	-17.5	+3.0	17.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	17	NO @ CAR	42–10	+14.8	+13.5	+32.0	17.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	17	NYJ @ BUF	13–6	-4.2	+1.5	+7.0	11.2
2019	17	LV @ DEN	15–16	-6.3	-5.5	-1.0	5.3
2019	17	PHI @ NYG	34–17	+3.5	+4.0	+17.0	13.5
2019	17	PIT @ BAL	10–28	-4.5	+2.0	-18.0	13.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	17	SF @ SEA	26–21	+3.9	+3.5	+5.0	1.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	17	TEN @ HOU	35–14	+9.6	+10.0	+21.0	11.4
2019	17	WAS @ DAL	16–47	-9.7	-13.0	-31.0	21.3
2019	16	ARI @ SEA	27–13	-8.4	-8.0	+14.0	22.4
2019	16	BAL @ CLE	31–15	+12.3	+9.5	+16.0	3.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	16	BUF @ NE	17–24	-3.9	-7.0	-7.0	3.1
2019	16	CAR @ IND	6–38	-5.9	-7.5	-32.0	26.1
2019	16	CIN @ MIA	35–38	-0.0	+1.5	-3.0	3.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	16	DAL @ PHI	9–17	+3.1	+2.0	-8.0	11.1
2019	16	DET @ DEN	17–27	-10.5	-9.5	-10.0	0.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	16	GB @ MIN	23–10	-5.7	-4.0	+13.0	18.7
2019	16	HOU @ TB	23–20	-2.9	+3.0	+3.0	5.9
2019	16	JAX @ ATL	12–24	-9.9	-7.5	-12.0	2.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	16	KC @ CHI	26–3	+6.9	+6.5	+23.0	16.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	16	LA @ SF	31–34	-6.1	-7.0	-3.0	3.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	16	NO @ TEN	38–28	+4.8	+3.5	+10.0	5.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	16	NYG @ WAS	41–35	-3.0	+1.0	+6.0	9.0
2019	16	LV @ LAC	24–17	-8.6	-7.5	+7.0	15.6
2019	16	PIT @ NYJ	10–16	+1.3	+3.0	-6.0	7.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	15	ATL @ SF	29–22	-10.7	-10.5	+7.0	17.7
2019	15	BUF @ PIT	17–10	-1.2	-1.0	+7.0	8.2
2019	15	CHI @ GB	13–21	-1.9	-4.0	-8.0	6.1
2019	15	CLE @ ARI	24–38	+7.1	+3.0	-14.0	21.1
2019	15	DEN @ KC	3–23	-6.2	-10.0	-20.0	13.8
2019	15	HOU @ TEN	24–21	-5.6	-3.0	+3.0	8.6
2019	15	IND @ NO	7–34	-7.3	-8.0	-27.0	19.7
2019	15	JAX @ LV	20–16	-6.7	-7.0	+4.0	10.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	15	LA @ DAL	21–44	+2.6	+1.0	-23.0	25.6
2019	15	MIA @ NYG	20–36	-4.8	-3.5	-16.0	11.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	15	MIN @ LAC	39–10	+0.8	+1.0	+29.0	28.2
2019	15	NE @ CIN	34–13	+9.4	+10.5	+21.0	11.6
2019	15	NYJ @ BAL	21–42	-19.3	-17.0	-21.0	1.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2019	15	PHI @ WAS	37–27	+6.6	+7.0	+10.0	3.4

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.