Backtest History
267 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 8 | JAX @ TEN | 22–36 | -4.5 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 9.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 8 | KC @ IND | 30–14 | -3.2 | +3.0 | +16.0 | 19.2 |
| 2016 | 8 | MIN @ CHI | 10–20 | +6.4 | +5.5 | -10.0 | 16.4 |
| 2016 | 8 | NE @ BUF | 41–25 | +5.3 | +5.5 | +16.0 | 10.7 |
| 2016 | 8 | NYJ @ CLE | 31–28 | +1.5 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 1.5 |
| 2016 | 8 | LV @ TB | 30–24 | -0.2 | -1.0 | +6.0 | 6.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 8 | PHI @ DAL | 23–29 | -7.3 | -5.0 | -6.0 | 1.3 |
| 2016 | 8 | LAC @ DEN | 19–27 | -2.6 | -3.5 | -8.0 | 5.4 |
| 2016 | 8 | SEA @ NO | 20–25 | +2.0 | +1.0 | -5.0 | 7.0 |
| 2016 | 8 | WAS vs CIN | 27–27 | -2.7 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 7 | BAL @ NYJ | 16–24 | -1.2 | -2.0 | -8.0 | 6.8 |
| 2016 | 7 | BUF @ MIA | 25–28 | +5.1 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 8.1 |
| 2016 | 7 | CHI @ GB | 10–26 | -7.8 | -7.5 | -16.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 7 | CLE @ CIN | 17–31 | -10.9 | -11.5 | -14.0 | 3.1 |
| 2016 | 7 | HOU @ DEN | 9–27 | -7.8 | -8.5 | -18.0 | 10.2 |
| 2016 | 7 | IND @ TEN | 34–26 | -5.0 | -4.0 | +8.0 | 13.0 |
| 2016 | 7 | MIN @ PHI | 10–21 | +2.4 | +2.5 | -11.0 | 13.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 7 | NE @ PIT | 27–16 | +10.6 | +7.5 | +11.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 7 | NO @ KC | 21–27 | -4.8 | -6.0 | -6.0 | 1.2 |
| 2016 | 7 | NYG vs LA | 17–10 | +1.2 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 5.8 |
| 2016 | 7 | LV @ JAX | 33–16 | -0.1 | -1.5 | +17.0 | 17.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 7 | LAC @ ATL | 33–30 | -5.9 | -4.5 | +3.0 | 8.9 |
| 2016 | 7 | SEA @ ARI | 6–6 | -1.6 | -2.5 | 0.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 7 | TB @ SF | 34–17 | -2.1 | -1.0 | +17.0 | 19.1 |
| 2016 | 7 | WAS @ DET | 17–20 | +0.9 | +1.0 | -3.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 6 | ATL @ SEA | 24–26 | -2.2 | -7.0 | -2.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 6 | BAL @ NYG | 23–27 | -3.4 | -3.5 | -4.0 | 0.6 |
| 2016 | 6 | CAR @ NO | 38–41 | +1.0 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 6 | CIN @ NE | 17–35 | -10.3 | -7.5 | -18.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 6 | CLE @ TEN | 26–28 | -6.3 | -7.5 | -2.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 6 | DAL @ GB | 30–16 | -0.8 | -5.0 | +14.0 | 14.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 6 | DEN @ LAC | 13–21 | +2.6 | +3.0 | -8.0 | 10.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 6 | IND @ HOU | 23–26 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.1 |
| 2016 | 6 | JAX @ CHI | 17–16 | -3.5 | -2.5 | +1.0 | 4.5 |
| 2016 | 6 | KC @ LV | 26–10 | -3.8 | +1.0 | +16.0 | 19.8 |
| 2016 | 6 | LA @ DET | 28–31 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 0.9 |
| 2016 | 6 | NYJ @ ARI | 3–28 | -8.0 | -7.5 | -25.0 | 17.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 6 | PHI @ WAS | 20–27 | +5.9 | +3.0 | -7.0 | 12.9 |
| 2016 | 6 | PIT @ MIA | 15–30 | +11.8 | +7.5 | -15.0 | 26.8 |
| 2016 | 6 | SF @ BUF | 16–45 | -10.5 | -7.5 | -29.0 | 18.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 5 | ARI @ SF | 33–21 | -0.4 | +3.5 | +12.0 | 12.4 |
| 2016 | 5 | ATL @ DEN | 23–16 | -1.6 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 5 | BUF @ LA | 30–19 | +4.3 | +2.5 | +11.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 5 | CHI @ IND | 23–29 | -2.6 | -4.0 | -6.0 | 3.4 |
| 2016 | 5 | CIN @ DAL | 14–28 | -2.8 | +2.5 | -14.0 | 11.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 5 | HOU @ MIN | 13–31 | -8.6 | -6.0 | -18.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 5 | NE @ CLE | 33–13 | +11.2 | +10.0 | +20.0 | 8.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 5 | NYG @ GB | 16–23 | -8.0 | -7.0 | -7.0 | 1.0 |
| 2016 | 5 | NYJ @ PIT | 13–31 | -12.7 | -10.0 | -18.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 5 | PHI @ DET | 23–24 | +8.5 | +3.5 | -1.0 | 9.5 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.