Backtest History
267 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 8 | CHI @ NO | 12–20 | -11.1 | -7.5 | -8.0 | 3.1 |
| 2017 | 8 | DAL @ WAS | 33–19 | +1.5 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 12.5 |
| 2017 | 8 | DEN @ KC | 19–29 | -9.5 | -7.0 | -10.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | HOU @ SEA | 38–41 | -3.0 | -6.0 | -3.0 | 0.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | IND @ CIN | 23–24 | -12.0 | -11.0 | -1.0 | 11.0 |
| 2017 | 8 | LAC @ NE | 13–21 | -7.5 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | MIA @ BAL | 0–40 | -0.8 | -3.0 | -40.0 | 39.2 |
| 2017 | 8 | MIN vs CLE | 33–16 | +13.8 | +11.0 | +17.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | LV @ BUF | 14–34 | -3.2 | -2.5 | -20.0 | 16.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | PIT @ DET | 20–15 | +5.3 | +3.0 | +5.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | SF @ PHI | 10–33 | -14.6 | -13.0 | -23.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | ARI vs LA | 0–33 | -3.4 | -3.0 | -33.0 | 29.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | ATL @ NE | 7–23 | -4.2 | -3.0 | -16.0 | 11.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | BAL @ MIN | 16–24 | -7.4 | -5.0 | -8.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | CAR @ CHI | 3–17 | +5.6 | +2.5 | -14.0 | 19.6 |
| 2017 | 7 | CIN @ PIT | 14–29 | -3.1 | -4.0 | -15.0 | 11.9 |
| 2017 | 7 | DAL @ SF | 40–10 | +3.4 | +6.5 | +30.0 | 26.6 |
| 2017 | 7 | DEN @ LAC | 0–21 | -0.5 | +1.0 | -21.0 | 20.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | JAX @ IND | 27–0 | +7.3 | +3.0 | +27.0 | 19.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | KC @ LV | 30–31 | +6.3 | +3.0 | -1.0 | 7.3 |
| 2017 | 7 | NO @ GB | 26–17 | +7.3 | +3.5 | +9.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | NYJ @ MIA | 28–31 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.6 |
| 2017 | 7 | SEA @ NYG | 24–7 | +2.4 | +4.0 | +17.0 | 14.6 |
| 2017 | 7 | TB @ BUF | 27–30 | -2.1 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.9 |
| 2017 | 7 | TEN @ CLE | 12–9 | +6.1 | +5.5 | +3.0 | 3.1 |
| 2017 | 7 | WAS @ PHI | 24–34 | -4.8 | -5.0 | -10.0 | 5.2 |
| 2017 | 6 | CHI @ BAL | 27–24 | -8.6 | -5.5 | +3.0 | 11.6 |
| 2017 | 6 | CLE @ HOU | 17–33 | -10.2 | -7.5 | -16.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | DET @ NO | 38–52 | -6.7 | -6.0 | -14.0 | 7.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | GB @ MIN | 10–23 | -4.1 | +3.0 | -13.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | IND @ TEN | 22–36 | -9.3 | -7.0 | -14.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | LA @ JAX | 27–17 | -2.9 | -1.0 | +10.0 | 12.9 |
| 2017 | 6 | LAC @ LV | 17–16 | -1.5 | -3.0 | +1.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | MIA @ ATL | 20–17 | -12.7 | -14.0 | +3.0 | 15.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | NE @ NYJ | 24–17 | +7.5 | +9.0 | +7.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | NYG @ DEN | 23–10 | -10.0 | -14.0 | +13.0 | 23.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | PHI @ CAR | 28–23 | -1.6 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | PIT @ KC | 19–13 | -7.4 | -3.5 | +6.0 | 13.4 |
| 2017 | 6 | SF @ WAS | 24–26 | -11.9 | -12.0 | -2.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | TB @ ARI | 33–38 | +1.1 | +2.5 | -5.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 5 | ARI @ PHI | 7–34 | -6.3 | -6.0 | -27.0 | 20.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 5 | BAL @ LV | 30–17 | -0.7 | -3.0 | +13.0 | 13.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 5 | BUF @ CIN | 16–20 | -2.3 | -3.0 | -4.0 | 1.7 |
| 2017 | 5 | CAR @ DET | 27–24 | -2.2 | -2.0 | +3.0 | 5.2 |
| 2017 | 5 | GB @ DAL | 35–31 | -1.8 | -2.5 | +4.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 5 | JAX @ PIT | 30–9 | -4.6 | -7.5 | +21.0 | 25.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 5 | KC @ HOU | 42–34 | -0.6 | +2.0 | +8.0 | 8.6 |
| 2017 | 5 | LAC @ NYG | 27–22 | -3.9 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 8.9 |
| 2017 | 5 | MIN @ CHI | 20–17 | +6.7 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 3.7 |
| 2017 | 5 | NE @ TB | 19–14 | +2.7 | +3.5 | +5.0 | 2.3 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.