Backtest History
267 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 8 | IND @ LV | 42–28 | +4.2 | +3.5 | +14.0 | 9.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 8 | MIA @ HOU | 23–42 | -6.6 | -7.5 | -19.0 | 12.4 |
| 2018 | 8 | NE @ BUF | 25–6 | +12.9 | +13.5 | +19.0 | 6.1 |
| 2018 | 8 | NO @ MIN | 30–20 | +2.6 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 8 | NYJ @ CHI | 10–24 | -10.0 | -8.5 | -14.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 8 | PHI vs JAX | 24–18 | +7.2 | +4.0 | +6.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 8 | SEA @ DET | 28–14 | -1.3 | -3.0 | +14.0 | 15.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 8 | SF @ ARI | 15–18 | +6.2 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 9.2 |
| 2018 | 8 | TB @ CIN | 34–37 | -2.9 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 8 | WAS @ NYG | 20–13 | -0.0 | +1.0 | +7.0 | 7.0 |
| 2018 | 7 | BUF @ IND | 5–37 | -1.7 | -7.0 | -32.0 | 30.3 |
| 2018 | 7 | CAR @ PHI | 21–17 | -5.2 | -5.0 | +4.0 | 9.2 |
| 2018 | 7 | CIN @ KC | 10–45 | -8.7 | -6.5 | -35.0 | 26.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 7 | CLE @ TB | 23–26 | -5.1 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 2.1 |
| 2018 | 7 | DAL @ WAS | 17–20 | +3.7 | +1.5 | -3.0 | 6.7 |
| 2018 | 7 | DEN @ ARI | 45–10 | +2.5 | +1.0 | +35.0 | 32.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 7 | DET @ MIA | 32–21 | +4.2 | +3.0 | +11.0 | 6.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 7 | HOU @ JAX | 20–7 | -2.0 | -4.0 | +13.0 | 15.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 7 | LA @ SF | 39–10 | +9.5 | +8.0 | +29.0 | 19.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 7 | MIN @ NYJ | 37–17 | +0.9 | +3.5 | +20.0 | 19.1 |
| 2018 | 7 | NE @ CHI | 38–31 | -2.6 | +1.0 | +7.0 | 9.6 |
| 2018 | 7 | NO @ BAL | 24–23 | -3.0 | -2.5 | +1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2018 | 7 | NYG @ ATL | 20–23 | -5.1 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 2.1 |
| 2018 | 7 | TEN vs LAC | 19–20 | -9.2 | -6.5 | -1.0 | 8.2 |
| 2018 | 6 | ARI @ MIN | 17–27 | -9.8 | -10.0 | -10.0 | 0.2 |
| 2018 | 6 | BAL @ TEN | 21–0 | +1.7 | +2.5 | +21.0 | 19.3 |
| 2018 | 6 | BUF @ HOU | 13–20 | -7.5 | -10.5 | -7.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | CAR @ WAS | 17–23 | -0.5 | +1.0 | -6.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | CHI @ MIA | 28–31 | +11.2 | +7.5 | -3.0 | 14.2 |
| 2018 | 6 | IND @ NYJ | 34–42 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | JAX @ DAL | 7–40 | +1.1 | +3.0 | -33.0 | 34.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | KC @ NE | 40–43 | +0.5 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 3.5 |
| 2018 | 6 | LA @ DEN | 23–20 | +9.4 | +7.0 | +3.0 | 6.4 |
| 2018 | 6 | LAC @ CLE | 38–14 | +1.1 | -1.0 | +24.0 | 22.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | PHI @ NYG | 34–13 | +0.1 | +1.5 | +21.0 | 20.9 |
| 2018 | 6 | PIT @ CIN | 28–21 | -1.5 | -1.0 | +7.0 | 8.5 |
| 2018 | 6 | SEA vs LV | 27–3 | +4.8 | +3.0 | +24.0 | 19.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | SF @ GB | 30–33 | -9.3 | -9.0 | -3.0 | 6.3 |
| 2018 | 6 | TB @ ATL | 29–34 | -3.5 | -3.0 | -5.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | ARI @ SF | 28–18 | -3.2 | -3.0 | +10.0 | 13.2 |
| 2018 | 5 | ATL @ PIT | 17–41 | -1.7 | -3.5 | -24.0 | 22.3 |
| 2018 | 5 | BAL @ CLE | 9–12 | +4.2 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 7.2 |
| 2018 | 5 | DAL @ HOU | 16–19 | -3.2 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | DEN @ NYJ | 16–34 | +0.5 | +1.0 | -18.0 | 18.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | GB @ DET | 23–31 | -2.4 | -1.0 | -8.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | IND @ NE | 24–38 | -8.8 | -10.5 | -14.0 | 5.2 |
| 2018 | 5 | JAX @ KC | 14–30 | -3.3 | -3.0 | -16.0 | 12.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | LA @ SEA | 33–31 | +7.4 | +7.5 | +2.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | MIA @ CIN | 17–27 | -8.2 | -6.0 | -10.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | MIN @ PHI | 23–21 | -5.9 | -3.5 | +2.0 | 7.9 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.