Backtest History
269 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 8 | ATL @ CAR | 25–17 | -1.1 | -1.5 | +8.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | DAL @ PHI | 9–23 | -10.6 | -10.0 | -14.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | IND @ DET | 41–21 | +2.8 | +3.5 | +20.0 | 17.2 |
| 2020 | 8 | LA @ MIA | 17–28 | +4.1 | +3.5 | -11.0 | 15.1 |
| 2020 | 8 | LAC @ DEN | 30–31 | +5.3 | +3.0 | -1.0 | 6.3 |
| 2020 | 8 | LV @ CLE | 16–6 | -1.5 | -1.0 | +10.0 | 11.5 |
| 2020 | 8 | MIN @ GB | 28–22 | -8.3 | -5.5 | +6.0 | 14.3 |
| 2020 | 8 | NE @ BUF | 21–24 | -5.1 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 2.1 |
| 2020 | 8 | NO @ CHI | 26–23 | +5.4 | +5.5 | +3.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | NYJ @ KC | 9–35 | -21.4 | -20.0 | -26.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | PIT @ BAL | 28–24 | -2.7 | -4.0 | +4.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | SF @ SEA | 27–37 | +1.4 | -1.0 | -10.0 | 11.4 |
| 2020 | 8 | TB @ NYG | 25–23 | +15.4 | +13.0 | +2.0 | 13.4 |
| 2020 | 8 | TEN @ CIN | 20–31 | +5.8 | +7.5 | -11.0 | 16.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | BUF @ NYJ | 18–10 | +11.5 | +9.5 | +8.0 | 3.5 |
| 2020 | 7 | CAR @ NO | 24–27 | -5.4 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | CHI @ LA | 10–24 | -4.4 | -6.5 | -14.0 | 9.6 |
| 2020 | 7 | CLE @ CIN | 37–34 | +2.0 | +4.5 | +3.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | DAL @ WAS | 3–25 | -1.3 | +1.0 | -22.0 | 20.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | DET @ ATL | 23–22 | -2.6 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 3.6 |
| 2020 | 7 | GB @ HOU | 35–20 | +3.7 | +2.5 | +15.0 | 11.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | JAX @ LAC | 29–39 | -11.3 | -8.0 | -10.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | KC @ DEN | 43–16 | +8.3 | +7.0 | +27.0 | 18.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | NYG @ PHI | 21–22 | -4.9 | -5.0 | -1.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | PIT @ TEN | 27–24 | -0.1 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | SEA @ ARI | 34–37 | +0.5 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | SF @ NE | 33–6 | -0.2 | -3.0 | +27.0 | 27.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | TB @ LV | 45–20 | +5.3 | +3.5 | +25.0 | 19.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 6 | ARI @ DAL | 38–10 | +2.5 | -1.0 | +28.0 | 25.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 6 | ATL @ MIN | 40–23 | -5.8 | -3.5 | +17.0 | 22.8 |
| 2020 | 6 | BAL @ PHI | 30–28 | +10.3 | +10.5 | +2.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 6 | CHI @ CAR | 23–16 | -4.1 | -2.0 | +7.0 | 11.1 |
| 2020 | 6 | CIN @ IND | 27–31 | -8.9 | -7.5 | -4.0 | 4.9 |
| 2020 | 6 | CLE @ PIT | 7–38 | -2.3 | -3.0 | -31.0 | 28.7 |
| 2020 | 6 | DEN @ NE | 18–12 | -8.0 | -7.0 | +6.0 | 14.0 |
| 2020 | 6 | DET @ JAX | 34–16 | +1.4 | +3.0 | +18.0 | 16.6 |
| 2020 | 6 | GB @ TB | 10–38 | +4.1 | +3.0 | -28.0 | 32.1 |
| 2020 | 6 | HOU @ TEN | 36–42 | -6.4 | -4.0 | -6.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 6 | KC @ BUF | 26–17 | +5.3 | +5.5 | +9.0 | 3.7 |
| 2020 | 6 | LA @ SF | 16–24 | +2.1 | +2.0 | -8.0 | 10.1 |
| 2020 | 6 | NYJ @ MIA | 0–24 | -15.0 | -9.5 | -24.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 6 | WAS @ NYG | 19–20 | -0.4 | -2.0 | -1.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 5 | ARI @ NYJ | 30–10 | +8.3 | +7.0 | +20.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 5 | BUF @ TEN | 16–42 | +4.1 | +3.0 | -26.0 | 30.1 |
| 2020 | 5 | CAR @ ATL | 23–16 | +0.2 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 6.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 5 | CIN @ BAL | 3–27 | -10.3 | -12.5 | -24.0 | 13.7 |
| 2020 | 5 | IND @ CLE | 23–32 | +1.2 | -1.0 | -9.0 | 10.2 |
| 2020 | 5 | JAX @ HOU | 14–30 | -3.9 | -6.5 | -16.0 | 12.1 |
| 2020 | 5 | LA @ WAS | 30–10 | +6.2 | +7.0 | +20.0 | 13.8 |
| 2020 | 5 | LAC @ NO | 27–30 | -4.6 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.