Backtest History
285 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 9 | ATL @ NO | 27–25 | -5.3 | -7.0 | +2.0 | 7.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | BUF @ JAX | 6–9 | +15.7 | +14.5 | -3.0 | 18.7 |
| 2021 | 9 | CHI @ PIT | 27–29 | -6.7 | -7.0 | -2.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | CLE @ CIN | 41–16 | -3.0 | -2.5 | +25.0 | 28.0 |
| 2021 | 9 | DEN @ DAL | 30–16 | -11.2 | -10.5 | +14.0 | 25.2 |
| 2021 | 9 | GB @ KC | 7–13 | -4.9 | -7.0 | -6.0 | 1.1 |
| 2021 | 9 | HOU @ MIA | 9–17 | -3.4 | -4.0 | -8.0 | 4.6 |
| 2021 | 9 | LAC @ PHI | 27–24 | -0.0 | +1.0 | +3.0 | 3.0 |
| 2021 | 9 | LV @ NYG | 16–23 | +4.6 | +3.0 | -7.0 | 11.6 |
| 2021 | 9 | MIN @ BAL | 31–34 | -4.9 | -7.5 | -3.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | NE @ CAR | 24–6 | +3.0 | +3.5 | +18.0 | 15.0 |
| 2021 | 9 | NYJ @ IND | 30–45 | -11.9 | -10.5 | -15.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 9 | TEN @ LA | 28–16 | -5.0 | -7.0 | +12.0 | 17.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | CAR @ ATL | 19–13 | -2.9 | -2.5 | +6.0 | 8.9 |
| 2021 | 8 | CIN @ NYJ | 31–34 | +12.1 | +11.5 | -3.0 | 15.1 |
| 2021 | 8 | DAL @ MIN | 20–16 | -6.0 | -4.5 | +4.0 | 10.0 |
| 2021 | 8 | GB @ ARI | 24–21 | -8.0 | -6.5 | +3.0 | 11.0 |
| 2021 | 8 | JAX @ SEA | 7–31 | -4.4 | -4.0 | -24.0 | 19.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | LA @ HOU | 38–22 | +16.3 | +17.0 | +16.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | MIA @ BUF | 11–26 | -14.6 | -15.0 | -15.0 | 0.4 |
| 2021 | 8 | NE @ LAC | 27–24 | -0.9 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | NYG @ KC | 17–20 | -6.7 | -10.5 | -3.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | PHI @ DET | 44–6 | +3.1 | +3.0 | +38.0 | 34.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | PIT @ CLE | 15–10 | -5.8 | -5.5 | +5.0 | 10.8 |
| 2021 | 8 | SF @ CHI | 33–22 | +5.1 | +4.5 | +11.0 | 5.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | TB @ NO | 27–36 | +8.5 | +4.0 | -9.0 | 17.5 |
| 2021 | 8 | TEN @ IND | 34–31 | -1.4 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | WAS @ DEN | 10–17 | -5.5 | -4.0 | -7.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 7 | ATL @ MIA | 30–28 | +1.0 | +1.5 | +2.0 | 1.0 |
| 2021 | 7 | CAR @ NYG | 3–25 | +3.7 | +3.0 | -22.0 | 25.7 |
| 2021 | 7 | CHI @ TB | 3–38 | -10.8 | -12.5 | -35.0 | 24.2 |
| 2021 | 7 | CIN @ BAL | 41–17 | -5.2 | -6.5 | +24.0 | 29.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 7 | DEN @ CLE | 14–17 | +0.4 | -2.0 | -3.0 | 3.4 |
| 2021 | 7 | DET @ LA | 19–28 | -19.3 | -17.0 | -9.0 | 10.3 |
| 2021 | 7 | HOU @ ARI | 5–31 | -19.8 | -20.5 | -26.0 | 6.2 |
| 2021 | 7 | IND @ SF | 30–18 | -0.4 | -3.5 | +12.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 7 | KC @ TEN | 3–27 | +2.0 | +4.0 | -24.0 | 26.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 7 | NO @ SEA | 13–10 | +7.0 | +6.0 | +3.0 | 4.0 |
| 2021 | 7 | NYJ @ NE | 13–54 | -4.8 | -7.0 | -41.0 | 36.2 |
| 2021 | 7 | PHI @ LV | 22–33 | -3.5 | -1.0 | -11.0 | 7.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 7 | WAS @ GB | 10–24 | -8.2 | -8.5 | -14.0 | 5.8 |
| 2021 | 6 | ARI @ CLE | 37–14 | +0.4 | -3.0 | +23.0 | 22.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 6 | BUF @ TEN | 31–34 | +8.7 | +6.0 | -3.0 | 11.7 |
| 2021 | 6 | CIN @ DET | 34–11 | +5.7 | +3.5 | +23.0 | 17.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 6 | DAL @ NE | 35–29 | +6.5 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 6 | GB @ CHI | 24–14 | +3.4 | +5.5 | +10.0 | 6.6 |
| 2021 | 6 | HOU @ IND | 3–31 | -9.4 | -10.5 | -28.0 | 18.6 |
| 2021 | 6 | KC @ WAS | 31–13 | +4.1 | +6.0 | +18.0 | 13.9 |
| 2021 | 6 | LA @ NYG | 38–11 | +6.7 | +7.5 | +27.0 | 20.3 |
| 2021 | 6 | LAC @ BAL | 6–34 | -1.6 | -3.0 | -28.0 | 26.4 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.