Backtest History
285 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 9 | BUF @ CIN | 18–24 | +0.1 | -1.5 | -6.0 | 6.1 |
| 2023 | 9 | CHI @ NO | 17–24 | -8.8 | -9.0 | -7.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | DAL @ PHI | 23–28 | -1.3 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 3.7 |
| 2023 | 9 | IND @ CAR | 27–13 | +1.6 | +1.5 | +14.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | LA @ GB | 3–20 | -4.8 | -3.5 | -17.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | LAC @ NYJ | 27–6 | +3.5 | +3.0 | +21.0 | 17.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | MIA vs KC | 14–21 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -7.0 | 6.2 |
| 2023 | 9 | MIN @ ATL | 31–28 | -4.1 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 7.1 |
| 2023 | 9 | NYG @ LV | 6–30 | +0.9 | -1.0 | -24.0 | 24.9 |
| 2023 | 9 | SEA @ BAL | 3–37 | -8.8 | -6.0 | -34.0 | 25.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | TB @ HOU | 37–39 | -4.1 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 2.1 |
| 2023 | 9 | TEN @ PIT | 16–20 | -1.3 | -3.5 | -4.0 | 2.7 |
| 2023 | 9 | WAS @ NE | 20–17 | -1.3 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | ATL @ TEN | 23–28 | -0.2 | +2.5 | -5.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | BAL @ ARI | 31–24 | +14.6 | +9.5 | +7.0 | 7.6 |
| 2023 | 8 | CHI @ LAC | 13–30 | -6.8 | -9.5 | -17.0 | 10.2 |
| 2023 | 8 | CIN @ SF | 31–17 | -7.8 | -4.0 | +14.0 | 21.8 |
| 2023 | 8 | CLE @ SEA | 20–24 | -5.6 | -4.0 | -4.0 | 1.6 |
| 2023 | 8 | HOU @ CAR | 13–15 | +5.8 | +3.0 | -2.0 | 7.8 |
| 2023 | 8 | JAX @ PIT | 20–10 | +0.3 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 9.7 |
| 2023 | 8 | KC @ DEN | 9–24 | +10.4 | +7.0 | -15.0 | 25.4 |
| 2023 | 8 | LA @ DAL | 20–43 | -6.6 | -6.5 | -23.0 | 16.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | LV @ DET | 14–26 | -6.3 | -7.0 | -12.0 | 5.7 |
| 2023 | 8 | MIN @ GB | 24–10 | +1.3 | +1.0 | +14.0 | 12.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | NE @ MIA | 17–31 | -9.7 | -7.5 | -14.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | NO @ IND | 38–27 | +0.9 | +2.0 | +11.0 | 10.1 |
| 2023 | 8 | NYJ @ NYG | 13–10 | +3.9 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.9 |
| 2023 | 8 | PHI @ WAS | 38–31 | +8.3 | +7.0 | +7.0 | 1.3 |
| 2023 | 8 | TB @ BUF | 18–24 | -11.1 | -10.0 | -6.0 | 5.1 |
| 2023 | 7 | ARI @ SEA | 10–20 | -10.3 | -9.5 | -10.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | ATL @ TB | 16–13 | -3.8 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 6.8 |
| 2023 | 7 | BUF @ NE | 25–29 | +11.3 | +7.5 | -4.0 | 15.3 |
| 2023 | 7 | CLE @ IND | 39–38 | +0.3 | +3.5 | +1.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | DET @ BAL | 6–38 | -0.1 | -3.0 | -32.0 | 31.9 |
| 2023 | 7 | GB @ DEN | 17–19 | -0.1 | -1.5 | -2.0 | 1.9 |
| 2023 | 7 | JAX @ NO | 31–24 | -1.8 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 8.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | LAC @ KC | 17–31 | -6.7 | -5.5 | -14.0 | 7.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | LV @ CHI | 12–30 | -0.8 | +2.5 | -18.0 | 17.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | MIA @ PHI | 17–31 | -1.6 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 12.4 |
| 2023 | 7 | PIT @ LA | 24–17 | -5.0 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 12.0 |
| 2023 | 7 | SF @ MIN | 17–22 | +9.7 | +7.0 | -5.0 | 14.7 |
| 2023 | 7 | WAS @ NYG | 7–14 | +3.3 | +3.0 | -7.0 | 10.3 |
| 2023 | 6 | ARI @ LA | 9–26 | -7.3 | -7.0 | -17.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 6 | BAL vs TEN | 24–16 | +4.1 | +5.5 | +8.0 | 3.9 |
| 2023 | 6 | CAR @ MIA | 21–42 | -13.6 | -14.0 | -21.0 | 7.4 |
| 2023 | 6 | DAL @ LAC | 20–17 | +0.9 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 2.1 |
| 2023 | 6 | DEN @ KC | 8–19 | -14.1 | -10.5 | -11.0 | 3.1 |
| 2023 | 6 | DET @ TB | 20–6 | +3.6 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 6 | IND @ JAX | 20–37 | -3.2 | -4.0 | -17.0 | 13.8 |
| 2023 | 6 | MIN @ CHI | 19–13 | +0.1 | +3.0 | +6.0 | 5.9 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.