Backtest History
285 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9 | ARI @ DAL | 27–17 | -4.0 | -3.5 | +10.0 | 14.0 |
| 2025 | 9 | ATL @ NE | 23–24 | -9.1 | -5.5 | -1.0 | 8.1 |
| 2025 | 9 | BAL @ MIA | 28–6 | +7.8 | +7.5 | +22.0 | 14.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | CAR @ GB | 16–13 | -14.5 | -12.5 | +3.0 | 17.5 |
| 2025 | 9 | CHI @ CIN | 47–42 | +3.1 | +3.0 | +5.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | DEN @ HOU | 18–15 | -0.2 | -1.5 | +3.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | IND @ PIT | 20–27 | +6.4 | +3.5 | -7.0 | 13.4 |
| 2025 | 9 | JAX @ LV | 30–29 | +4.0 | +2.5 | +1.0 | 3.0 |
| 2025 | 9 | KC @ BUF | 21–28 | +4.1 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 11.1 |
| 2025 | 9 | LAC @ TEN | 27–20 | +10.2 | +10.0 | +7.0 | 3.2 |
| 2025 | 9 | MIN @ DET | 27–24 | -13.6 | -9.5 | +3.0 | 16.6 |
| 2025 | 9 | NO @ LA | 10–34 | -15.8 | -14.0 | -24.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | SEA @ WAS | 38–14 | +2.9 | +2.5 | +24.0 | 21.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 9 | SF @ NYG | 34–24 | +0.7 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 9.3 |
| 2025 | 8 | BUF @ CAR | 40–9 | +5.1 | +7.0 | +31.0 | 25.9 |
| 2025 | 8 | CHI @ BAL | 16–30 | +4.3 | -2.5 | -14.0 | 18.3 |
| 2025 | 8 | CLE @ NE | 13–32 | -10.1 | -7.0 | -19.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | DAL @ DEN | 24–44 | -1.9 | -3.5 | -20.0 | 18.1 |
| 2025 | 8 | GB @ PIT | 35–25 | +1.9 | +3.0 | +10.0 | 8.1 |
| 2025 | 8 | MIA @ ATL | 34–10 | -10.0 | -7.0 | +24.0 | 34.0 |
| 2025 | 8 | MIN @ LAC | 10–37 | -0.2 | -3.0 | -27.0 | 26.8 |
| 2025 | 8 | NYG @ PHI | 20–38 | -7.7 | -7.0 | -18.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | NYJ @ CIN | 39–38 | -6.5 | -5.5 | +1.0 | 7.5 |
| 2025 | 8 | SF @ HOU | 15–26 | -3.9 | -2.5 | -11.0 | 7.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | TB @ NO | 23–3 | +2.9 | +4.5 | +20.0 | 17.1 |
| 2025 | 8 | TEN @ IND | 14–38 | -20.1 | -15.5 | -24.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 8 | WAS @ KC | 7–28 | -12.8 | -10.5 | -21.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | ATL @ SF | 10–20 | -1.1 | -1.5 | -10.0 | 8.9 |
| 2025 | 7 | CAR @ NYJ | 13–6 | -0.1 | -1.5 | +7.0 | 7.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | GB @ ARI | 27–23 | +5.6 | +7.0 | +4.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | HOU @ SEA | 19–27 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -8.0 | 6.0 |
| 2025 | 7 | IND @ LAC | 38–24 | +2.9 | -2.5 | +14.0 | 11.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | LA vs JAX | 35–7 | +3.8 | +3.0 | +28.0 | 24.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | LV @ KC | 0–31 | -14.0 | -13.5 | -31.0 | 17.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | MIA @ CLE | 6–31 | -1.1 | -2.5 | -25.0 | 23.9 |
| 2025 | 7 | NE @ TEN | 31–13 | +9.3 | +6.5 | +18.0 | 8.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | NO @ CHI | 14–26 | -6.8 | -4.5 | -12.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | NYG @ DEN | 32–33 | -9.8 | -7.5 | -1.0 | 8.8 |
| 2025 | 7 | PHI @ MIN | 28–22 | -0.2 | +2.5 | +6.0 | 6.2 |
| 2025 | 7 | PIT @ CIN | 31–33 | +7.5 | +5.5 | -2.0 | 9.5 |
| 2025 | 7 | TB @ DET | 9–24 | -3.8 | -6.0 | -15.0 | 11.2 |
| 2025 | 7 | WAS @ DAL | 22–44 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -22.0 | 20.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | ARI @ IND | 27–31 | -11.9 | -8.5 | -4.0 | 7.9 |
| 2025 | 6 | BUF @ ATL | 14–24 | +2.4 | +3.5 | -10.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | CHI @ WAS | 25–24 | -5.5 | -5.5 | +1.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | CIN @ GB | 18–27 | -17.1 | -14.0 | -9.0 | 8.1 |
| 2025 | 6 | CLE @ PIT | 9–23 | -6.0 | -5.5 | -14.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | DAL @ CAR | 27–30 | +5.0 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 8.0 |
| 2025 | 6 | DEN vs NYJ | 13–11 | +11.1 | +7.5 | +2.0 | 9.1 |
| 2025 | 6 | DET @ KC | 17–30 | -1.9 | -2.5 | -13.0 | 11.1 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.