Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 13 | WAS @ PHI | 13–28 | -7.0 | -5.5 | -15.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 12 | ARI @ LAC | 10–45 | -17.3 | -14.0 | -35.0 | 17.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 12 | ATL @ NO | 17–31 | -14.8 | -11.5 | -14.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 12 | CHI @ DET | 23–16 | +6.1 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 12 | CLE @ CIN | 35–20 | +2.1 | +1.0 | +15.0 | 12.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 12 | GB @ MIN | 17–24 | -1.8 | -4.0 | -7.0 | 5.2 |
| 2018 | 12 | JAX @ BUF | 21–24 | +0.2 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 12 | MIA @ IND | 24–27 | -11.7 | -9.0 | -3.0 | 8.7 |
| 2018 | 12 | NE @ NYJ | 27–13 | +10.8 | +13.0 | +14.0 | 3.2 |
| 2018 | 12 | NYG @ PHI | 22–25 | -2.0 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 12 | LV @ BAL | 17–34 | -10.6 | -13.0 | -17.0 | 6.4 |
| 2018 | 12 | PIT @ DEN | 17–24 | +3.6 | +3.0 | -7.0 | 10.6 |
| 2018 | 12 | SEA @ CAR | 30–27 | -2.3 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 12 | SF @ TB | 9–27 | +2.5 | -1.5 | -18.0 | 20.5 |
| 2018 | 12 | TEN @ HOU | 17–34 | -3.3 | -3.5 | -17.0 | 13.7 |
| 2018 | 12 | WAS @ DAL | 23–31 | -8.5 | -7.0 | -8.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 11 | CAR @ DET | 19–20 | +4.7 | +4.0 | -1.0 | 5.7 |
| 2018 | 11 | CIN @ BAL | 21–24 | -7.3 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 4.3 |
| 2018 | 11 | DAL @ ATL | 22–19 | -0.7 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 11 | DEN @ LAC | 23–22 | -7.4 | -7.5 | +1.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 11 | GB @ SEA | 24–27 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.1 |
| 2018 | 11 | HOU @ WAS | 23–21 | +2.7 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 11 | KC @ LA | 51–54 | -0.5 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 2.5 |
| 2018 | 11 | MIN @ CHI | 20–25 | -6.4 | -2.5 | -5.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 11 | LV @ ARI | 23–21 | -1.8 | -4.5 | +2.0 | 3.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 11 | PHI @ NO | 7–48 | -9.2 | -7.0 | -41.0 | 31.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 11 | PIT @ JAX | 20–16 | +8.3 | +4.0 | +4.0 | 4.3 |
| 2018 | 11 | TB @ NYG | 35–38 | -4.4 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 1.4 |
| 2018 | 11 | TEN @ IND | 10–38 | -5.1 | -2.0 | -28.0 | 22.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 10 | ARI @ KC | 14–26 | -23.7 | -16.5 | -12.0 | 11.7 |
| 2018 | 10 | ATL @ CLE | 16–28 | +7.1 | +5.5 | -12.0 | 19.1 |
| 2018 | 10 | BUF @ NYJ | 41–10 | -4.6 | -6.5 | +31.0 | 35.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 10 | CAR @ PIT | 21–52 | -2.6 | -3.5 | -31.0 | 28.4 |
| 2018 | 10 | DAL @ PHI | 27–20 | -5.9 | -7.5 | +7.0 | 12.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 10 | DET @ CHI | 22–34 | -9.1 | -7.5 | -12.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 10 | JAX @ IND | 26–29 | -6.3 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 3.3 |
| 2018 | 10 | LAC @ LV | 20–6 | +12.6 | +10.5 | +14.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 10 | MIA @ GB | 12–31 | -10.9 | -13.0 | -19.0 | 8.1 |
| 2018 | 10 | NE @ TEN | 10–34 | +5.0 | +6.0 | -24.0 | 29.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 10 | NO @ CIN | 51–14 | +6.2 | +5.5 | +37.0 | 30.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 10 | NYG @ SF | 27–23 | -5.4 | -3.0 | +4.0 | 9.4 |
| 2018 | 10 | SEA @ LA | 31–36 | -7.9 | -10.0 | -5.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 10 | WAS @ TB | 16–3 | -1.9 | -3.5 | +13.0 | 14.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 9 | ATL @ WAS | 38–14 | -1.9 | -1.5 | +24.0 | 25.9 |
| 2018 | 9 | CHI @ BUF | 41–9 | +13.9 | +10.5 | +32.0 | 18.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 9 | DET @ MIN | 9–24 | -2.0 | -4.5 | -15.0 | 13.0 |
| 2018 | 9 | GB @ NE | 17–31 | -6.2 | -5.0 | -14.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 9 | HOU @ DEN | 19–17 | -1.9 | -1.0 | +2.0 | 3.9 |
| 2018 | 9 | KC @ CLE | 37–21 | +12.2 | +7.5 | +16.0 | 3.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 9 | LA @ NO | 35–45 | +2.3 | +2.5 | -10.0 | 12.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.