Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2 | HOU @ TEN | 17–20 | +0.5 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | IND @ WAS | 21–9 | -10.0 | -6.0 | +12.0 | 22.0 |
| 2018 | 2 | KC @ PIT | 42–37 | -0.8 | -4.5 | +5.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | LAC @ BUF | 31–20 | +4.2 | +7.5 | +11.0 | 6.8 |
| 2018 | 2 | MIA @ NYJ | 20–12 | -4.6 | -3.0 | +8.0 | 12.6 |
| 2018 | 2 | MIN @ GB | 29–29 | +2.3 | +2.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 |
| 2018 | 2 | NE @ JAX | 20–31 | +0.7 | +2.0 | -11.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | NYG @ DAL | 13–20 | -3.4 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | LV @ DEN | 19–20 | -5.2 | -5.5 | -1.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | PHI @ TB | 21–27 | -0.1 | +3.0 | -6.0 | 5.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | SEA @ CHI | 17–24 | -3.4 | -5.0 | -7.0 | 3.6 |
| 2018 | 1 | ATL @ PHI | 12–18 | +0.4 | -1.0 | -6.0 | 6.4 |
| 2018 | 1 | BUF @ BAL | 3–47 | -9.5 | -7.5 | -44.0 | 34.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 1 | CHI @ GB | 23–24 | -9.1 | -6.5 | -1.0 | 8.1 |
| 2018 | 1 | CIN @ IND | 34–23 | -2.6 | +1.0 | +11.0 | 13.6 |
| 2018 | 1 | DAL @ CAR | 8–16 | -2.7 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 1 | HOU @ NE | 20–27 | -8.5 | -6.0 | -7.0 | 1.5 |
| 2018 | 1 | JAX @ NYG | 20–15 | +4.7 | +2.5 | +5.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 1 | KC @ LAC | 38–28 | -6.4 | -3.5 | +10.0 | 16.4 |
| 2018 | 1 | LA @ LV | 33–13 | +4.6 | +6.0 | +20.0 | 15.4 |
| 2018 | 1 | NYJ @ DET | 48–17 | -8.0 | -7.0 | +31.0 | 39.0 |
| 2018 | 1 | PIT @ CLE | 21–21 | +6.8 | +3.5 | 0.0 | 6.8 |
| 2018 | 1 | SEA @ DEN | 24–27 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 1.0 |
| 2018 | 1 | SF @ MIN | 16–24 | -0.9 | -6.0 | -8.0 | 7.1 |
| 2018 | 1 | TB @ NO | 48–40 | -10.4 | -10.0 | +8.0 | 18.4 |
| 2018 | 1 | TEN @ MIA | 20–27 | -3.6 | +1.0 | -7.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 1 | WAS @ ARI | 24–6 | -0.8 | -2.0 | +18.0 | 18.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 21 | PHI vs NE | 41–33 | -2.8 | -4.5 | +8.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 20 | JAX @ NE | 20–24 | -5.9 | -7.5 | -4.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 20 | MIN @ PHI | 7–38 | +4.5 | +3.0 | -31.0 | 35.5 |
| 2017 | 19 | ATL @ PHI | 10–15 | +3.4 | +2.5 | -5.0 | 8.4 |
| 2017 | 19 | JAX @ PIT | 45–42 | -5.6 | -7.0 | +3.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 19 | NO @ MIN | 24–29 | -5.3 | -5.5 | -5.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 19 | TEN @ NE | 14–35 | -11.8 | -13.5 | -21.0 | 9.2 |
| 2017 | 18 | ATL @ LA | 26–13 | -5.7 | -6.5 | +13.0 | 18.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 18 | BUF @ JAX | 3–10 | -10.1 | -8.5 | -7.0 | 3.1 |
| 2017 | 18 | CAR @ NO | 26–31 | -6.3 | -6.5 | -5.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 18 | TEN @ KC | 22–21 | -8.8 | -8.5 | +1.0 | 9.8 |
| 2017 | 17 | ARI @ SEA | 26–24 | -5.8 | -8.0 | +2.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | BUF @ MIA | 22–16 | +0.7 | +2.5 | +6.0 | 5.3 |
| 2017 | 17 | CAR @ ATL | 10–22 | -3.9 | -5.0 | -12.0 | 8.1 |
| 2017 | 17 | CHI @ MIN | 10–23 | -12.7 | -13.5 | -13.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | CIN @ BAL | 31–27 | -10.0 | -8.0 | +4.0 | 14.0 |
| 2017 | 17 | CLE @ PIT | 24–28 | -9.4 | -5.0 | -4.0 | 5.4 |
| 2017 | 17 | DAL @ PHI | 6–0 | -2.9 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 8.9 |
| 2017 | 17 | GB @ DET | 11–35 | -7.8 | -7.5 | -24.0 | 16.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | HOU @ IND | 13–22 | -4.2 | -5.5 | -9.0 | 4.8 |
| 2017 | 17 | JAX @ TEN | 10–15 | +2.9 | -2.5 | -5.0 | 7.9 |
| 2017 | 17 | KC @ DEN | 27–24 | -1.5 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 4.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | NO @ TB | 24–31 | +4.3 | +6.0 | -7.0 | 11.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.