Backtest History
267 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 5 | LAC @ LV | 31–34 | -3.7 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 0.7 |
| 2016 | 5 | TB @ CAR | 17–14 | -6.5 | -6.0 | +3.0 | 9.5 |
| 2016 | 5 | TEN @ MIA | 30–17 | -2.0 | -2.5 | +13.0 | 15.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 5 | WAS @ BAL | 16–10 | -3.3 | -4.0 | +6.0 | 9.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 4 | BUF @ NE | 16–0 | -4.3 | -3.5 | +16.0 | 20.3 |
| 2016 | 4 | CAR @ ATL | 33–48 | -0.1 | +2.5 | -15.0 | 14.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 4 | CLE @ WAS | 20–31 | -4.4 | -7.5 | -11.0 | 6.6 |
| 2016 | 4 | DAL @ SF | 24–17 | +5.9 | +1.0 | +7.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 4 | DEN @ TB | 27–7 | +5.9 | +3.5 | +20.0 | 14.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 4 | DET @ CHI | 14–17 | +3.9 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 6.9 |
| 2016 | 4 | IND vs JAX | 27–30 | +1.6 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 4.6 |
| 2016 | 4 | KC @ PIT | 14–43 | -1.3 | -3.0 | -29.0 | 27.7 |
| 2016 | 4 | LA @ ARI | 17–13 | -10.4 | -10.0 | +4.0 | 14.4 |
| 2016 | 4 | MIA @ CIN | 7–22 | -6.2 | -7.5 | -15.0 | 8.8 |
| 2016 | 4 | NO @ LAC | 35–34 | -8.4 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 9.4 |
| 2016 | 4 | NYG @ MIN | 10–24 | -7.4 | -3.5 | -14.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 4 | LV @ BAL | 28–27 | -1.3 | -3.5 | +1.0 | 2.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 4 | SEA @ NYJ | 27–17 | +3.3 | +1.0 | +10.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 4 | TEN @ HOU | 20–27 | -5.8 | -4.0 | -7.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | ARI @ BUF | 18–33 | +8.0 | +5.0 | -15.0 | 23.0 |
| 2016 | 3 | ATL @ NO | 45–32 | -1.4 | -2.5 | +13.0 | 14.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | BAL @ JAX | 19–17 | +2.4 | +1.0 | +2.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | CHI @ DAL | 17–31 | -9.5 | -6.5 | -14.0 | 4.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | CLE @ MIA | 24–30 | -8.6 | -10.0 | -6.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | DEN @ CIN | 29–17 | -1.8 | -3.5 | +12.0 | 13.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | DET @ GB | 27–34 | -6.4 | -6.0 | -7.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | HOU @ NE | 0–27 | -3.5 | -1.0 | -27.0 | 23.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | LA @ TB | 37–32 | -1.6 | -3.5 | +5.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | MIN @ CAR | 22–10 | -4.2 | -6.0 | +12.0 | 16.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | NYJ @ KC | 3–24 | -0.8 | -3.0 | -21.0 | 20.2 |
| 2016 | 3 | LV @ TEN | 17–10 | +1.4 | +1.5 | +7.0 | 5.6 |
| 2016 | 3 | PIT @ PHI | 3–34 | +3.0 | +3.5 | -31.0 | 34.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | LAC @ IND | 22–26 | +2.6 | -1.5 | -4.0 | 6.6 |
| 2016 | 3 | SF @ SEA | 18–37 | -6.9 | -10.5 | -19.0 | 12.1 |
| 2016 | 3 | WAS @ NYG | 29–27 | -5.2 | -3.5 | +2.0 | 7.2 |
| 2016 | 2 | ATL @ LV | 35–28 | -5.9 | -4.0 | +7.0 | 12.9 |
| 2016 | 2 | BAL @ CLE | 25–20 | +4.4 | +4.0 | +5.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | CIN @ PIT | 16–24 | -5.6 | -3.0 | -8.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | DAL @ WAS | 27–23 | -0.4 | -3.5 | +4.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | GB @ MIN | 14–17 | -1.8 | +1.5 | -3.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | IND @ DEN | 20–34 | -4.2 | -5.0 | -14.0 | 9.8 |
| 2016 | 2 | JAX @ LAC | 14–38 | -4.5 | -3.0 | -24.0 | 19.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | KC @ HOU | 12–19 | -0.8 | +1.0 | -7.0 | 6.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | MIA @ NE | 24–31 | -8.3 | -5.5 | -7.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | NO @ NYG | 13–16 | -4.2 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2016 | 2 | NYJ @ BUF | 37–31 | -1.6 | -1.5 | +6.0 | 7.6 |
| 2016 | 2 | PHI @ CHI | 29–14 | -0.4 | -3.0 | +15.0 | 15.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | SEA @ LA | 3–9 | +7.1 | +5.5 | -6.0 | 13.1 |
| 2016 | 2 | SF @ CAR | 27–46 | -10.0 | -12.0 | -19.0 | 9.0 |
| 2016 | 2 | TB @ ARI | 7–40 | -6.3 | -7.5 | -33.0 | 26.7 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.