Backtest History
267 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 5 | NYJ @ CLE | 17–14 | +2.5 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 5 | SEA @ LA | 16–10 | -2.8 | -2.0 | +6.0 | 8.8 |
| 2017 | 5 | SF @ IND | 23–26 | +0.2 | +1.0 | -3.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 5 | TEN @ MIA | 10–16 | -1.4 | 0.0 | -6.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | BUF @ ATL | 23–17 | -7.5 | -8.0 | +6.0 | 13.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | CAR @ NE | 33–30 | -10.9 | -9.0 | +3.0 | 13.9 |
| 2017 | 4 | CHI @ GB | 14–35 | -8.3 | -7.5 | -21.0 | 12.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | CIN @ CLE | 31–7 | +1.9 | +3.0 | +24.0 | 22.1 |
| 2017 | 4 | DET @ MIN | 14–7 | -4.7 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 11.7 |
| 2017 | 4 | IND @ SEA | 18–46 | -9.6 | -12.5 | -28.0 | 18.4 |
| 2017 | 4 | JAX @ NYJ | 20–23 | +6.2 | +4.0 | -3.0 | 9.2 |
| 2017 | 4 | LA @ DAL | 35–30 | +0.3 | -5.0 | +5.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | NO vs MIA | 20–0 | +5.9 | +4.0 | +20.0 | 14.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | NYG @ TB | 23–25 | -3.4 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 1.4 |
| 2017 | 4 | LV @ DEN | 10–16 | -4.8 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | PHI @ LAC | 26–24 | +0.9 | -1.5 | +2.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | PIT @ BAL | 26–9 | +3.3 | +3.5 | +17.0 | 13.7 |
| 2017 | 4 | SF @ ARI | 15–18 | -7.6 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 4.6 |
| 2017 | 4 | TEN @ HOU | 14–57 | -2.0 | +2.5 | -43.0 | 41.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | WAS @ KC | 20–29 | -4.3 | -6.5 | -9.0 | 4.7 |
| 2017 | 3 | ATL @ DET | 30–26 | +3.2 | +3.0 | +4.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 3 | BAL vs JAX | 7–44 | +3.9 | +3.0 | -37.0 | 40.9 |
| 2017 | 3 | CIN @ GB | 24–27 | -7.8 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 4.8 |
| 2017 | 3 | CLE @ IND | 28–31 | -1.6 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 3 | DAL @ ARI | 28–17 | -0.2 | +3.0 | +11.0 | 11.2 |
| 2017 | 3 | DEN @ BUF | 16–26 | +4.2 | +3.5 | -10.0 | 14.2 |
| 2017 | 3 | HOU @ NE | 33–36 | -14.3 | -13.5 | -3.0 | 11.3 |
| 2017 | 3 | KC @ LAC | 24–10 | +3.4 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 10.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 3 | LA @ SF | 41–39 | +5.5 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 3.5 |
| 2017 | 3 | MIA @ NYJ | 6–20 | +4.9 | +5.5 | -14.0 | 18.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 3 | NO @ CAR | 34–13 | -8.3 | -5.5 | +21.0 | 29.3 |
| 2017 | 3 | NYG @ PHI | 24–27 | -6.7 | -5.0 | -3.0 | 3.7 |
| 2017 | 3 | LV @ WAS | 10–27 | +4.0 | +3.5 | -17.0 | 21.0 |
| 2017 | 3 | PIT @ CHI | 17–23 | +9.3 | +7.0 | -6.0 | 15.3 |
| 2017 | 3 | SEA @ TEN | 27–33 | -4.1 | -2.0 | -6.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 3 | TB @ MIN | 17–34 | +3.4 | 0.0 | -17.0 | 20.4 |
| 2017 | 2 | ARI @ IND | 16–13 | +3.7 | +7.0 | +3.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 2 | BUF @ CAR | 3–9 | -6.3 | -6.5 | -6.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 2 | CHI @ TB | 7–29 | -8.2 | -7.0 | -22.0 | 13.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 2 | CLE @ BAL | 10–24 | -9.3 | -7.5 | -14.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 2 | DAL @ DEN | 17–42 | +1.1 | +2.5 | -25.0 | 26.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 2 | DET @ NYG | 24–10 | -1.9 | -3.0 | +14.0 | 15.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 2 | GB @ ATL | 23–34 | -3.7 | -3.5 | -11.0 | 7.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 2 | HOU @ CIN | 13–9 | -5.5 | -5.5 | +4.0 | 9.5 |
| 2017 | 2 | MIA @ LAC | 19–17 | -4.3 | -3.5 | +2.0 | 6.3 |
| 2017 | 2 | MIN @ PIT | 9–26 | -7.6 | -8.5 | -17.0 | 9.4 |
| 2017 | 2 | NE @ NO | 36–20 | +3.3 | +5.5 | +16.0 | 12.7 |
| 2017 | 2 | NYJ @ LV | 20–45 | -12.3 | -14.0 | -25.0 | 12.7 |
| 2017 | 2 | PHI @ KC | 20–27 | -4.5 | -4.0 | -7.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 2 | SF @ SEA | 9–12 | -11.8 | -13.5 | -3.0 | 8.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.