Backtest History
267 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | NYG @ CAR | 31–33 | -6.5 | -7.0 | -2.0 | 4.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | LV @ LAC | 10–26 | -6.2 | -5.5 | -16.0 | 9.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | TEN @ BUF | 12–13 | +4.6 | +6.0 | -1.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | WAS @ NO | 19–43 | -2.7 | -5.5 | -24.0 | 21.3 |
| 2018 | 4 | BAL @ PIT | 26–14 | -2.3 | -3.0 | +12.0 | 14.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 4 | BUF @ GB | 0–22 | -0.2 | -8.5 | -22.0 | 21.8 |
| 2018 | 4 | CIN @ ATL | 37–36 | -1.9 | -3.5 | +1.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 4 | CLE @ LV | 42–45 | -0.7 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 2.3 |
| 2018 | 4 | DET @ DAL | 24–26 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 4 | HOU @ IND | 37–34 | -0.9 | +1.0 | +3.0 | 3.9 |
| 2018 | 4 | KC @ DEN | 27–23 | +7.9 | +3.5 | +4.0 | 3.9 |
| 2018 | 4 | MIA @ NE | 7–38 | -1.1 | -6.5 | -31.0 | 29.9 |
| 2018 | 4 | MIN @ LA | 31–38 | -14.1 | -7.5 | -7.0 | 7.1 |
| 2018 | 4 | NO @ NYG | 33–18 | +1.5 | +3.5 | +15.0 | 13.5 |
| 2018 | 4 | NYJ @ JAX | 12–31 | -7.6 | -7.5 | -19.0 | 11.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 4 | PHI @ TEN | 23–26 | +1.8 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 4 | SEA @ ARI | 20–17 | +9.4 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 6.4 |
| 2018 | 4 | SF @ LAC | 27–29 | -16.2 | -10.0 | -2.0 | 14.2 |
| 2018 | 4 | TB @ CHI | 10–48 | -1.2 | -3.0 | -38.0 | 36.8 |
| 2018 | 3 | BUF @ MIN | 27–6 | -16.1 | -16.5 | +21.0 | 37.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 3 | CHI @ ARI | 16–14 | +11.1 | +6.0 | +2.0 | 9.1 |
| 2018 | 3 | CIN @ CAR | 21–31 | -0.9 | -2.5 | -10.0 | 9.1 |
| 2018 | 3 | DAL @ SEA | 13–24 | -0.1 | -1.0 | -11.0 | 10.9 |
| 2018 | 3 | DEN @ BAL | 14–27 | -5.8 | -5.5 | -13.0 | 7.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 3 | GB @ WAS | 17–31 | -2.0 | +2.5 | -14.0 | 12.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 3 | IND @ PHI | 16–20 | -8.5 | -6.5 | -4.0 | 4.5 |
| 2018 | 3 | LAC @ LA | 23–35 | -6.7 | -7.5 | -12.0 | 5.3 |
| 2018 | 3 | NE @ DET | 10–26 | +4.9 | +7.0 | -16.0 | 20.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 3 | NO @ ATL | 43–37 | -3.9 | -1.5 | +6.0 | 9.9 |
| 2018 | 3 | NYG @ HOU | 27–22 | -5.2 | -6.5 | +5.0 | 10.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 3 | NYJ @ CLE | 17–21 | -1.9 | -3.0 | -4.0 | 2.1 |
| 2018 | 3 | LV @ MIA | 20–28 | -4.5 | -3.0 | -8.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 3 | PIT @ TB | 30–27 | -3.8 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 6.8 |
| 2018 | 3 | SF @ KC | 27–38 | -9.7 | -6.0 | -11.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 3 | TEN @ JAX | 9–6 | -7.9 | -10.0 | +3.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | ARI @ LA | 0–34 | -16.1 | -13.5 | -34.0 | 17.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | BAL @ CIN | 23–34 | +1.4 | -1.0 | -11.0 | 12.4 |
| 2018 | 2 | CAR @ ATL | 24–31 | -2.9 | -5.5 | -7.0 | 4.1 |
| 2018 | 2 | CLE @ NO | 18–21 | -7.5 | -10.0 | -3.0 | 4.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | DET @ SF | 27–30 | -4.9 | -6.0 | -3.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | HOU @ TEN | 17–20 | +0.5 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | IND @ WAS | 21–9 | -10.0 | -6.0 | +12.0 | 22.0 |
| 2018 | 2 | KC @ PIT | 42–37 | -0.8 | -4.5 | +5.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | LAC @ BUF | 31–20 | +4.2 | +7.5 | +11.0 | 6.8 |
| 2018 | 2 | MIA @ NYJ | 20–12 | -4.6 | -3.0 | +8.0 | 12.6 |
| 2018 | 2 | MIN @ GB | 29–29 | +2.3 | +2.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 |
| 2018 | 2 | NE @ JAX | 20–31 | +0.7 | +2.0 | -11.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | NYG @ DAL | 13–20 | -3.4 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | LV @ DEN | 19–20 | -5.2 | -5.5 | -1.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | PHI @ TB | 21–27 | -0.1 | +3.0 | -6.0 | 5.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.