Backtest History
267 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5 | MIN @ NYG | 28–10 | +4.1 | +5.5 | +18.0 | 13.9 |
| 2019 | 5 | NE @ WAS | 33–7 | +16.4 | +15.5 | +26.0 | 9.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 5 | NYJ @ PHI | 6–31 | -12.0 | -14.0 | -25.0 | 13.0 |
| 2019 | 5 | TB @ NO | 24–31 | +0.2 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 7.2 |
| 2019 | 4 | CAR @ HOU | 16–10 | -2.9 | -5.5 | +6.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | CIN @ PIT | 3–27 | -2.2 | -3.5 | -24.0 | 21.8 |
| 2019 | 4 | CLE @ BAL | 40–25 | -7.9 | -7.5 | +15.0 | 22.9 |
| 2019 | 4 | DAL @ NO | 10–12 | +3.9 | +2.5 | -2.0 | 5.9 |
| 2019 | 4 | JAX @ DEN | 26–24 | -0.1 | -2.5 | +2.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | KC @ DET | 34–30 | +7.1 | +7.5 | +4.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | LAC @ MIA | 30–10 | +16.9 | +15.0 | +20.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | MIN @ CHI | 6–16 | +3.2 | +1.0 | -10.0 | 13.2 |
| 2019 | 4 | NE @ BUF | 16–10 | +8.0 | +7.0 | +6.0 | 2.0 |
| 2019 | 4 | LV @ IND | 31–24 | -7.4 | -5.5 | +7.0 | 14.4 |
| 2019 | 4 | PHI @ GB | 34–27 | -4.6 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 11.6 |
| 2019 | 4 | SEA @ ARI | 27–10 | +5.0 | +5.5 | +17.0 | 12.0 |
| 2019 | 4 | TB @ LA | 55–40 | -8.8 | -9.0 | +15.0 | 23.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | TEN @ ATL | 24–10 | -2.9 | -3.5 | +14.0 | 16.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | WAS @ NYG | 3–24 | -4.8 | -3.0 | -21.0 | 16.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | ATL @ IND | 24–27 | -3.5 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | BAL @ KC | 28–33 | -3.4 | -4.5 | -5.0 | 1.6 |
| 2019 | 3 | CAR @ ARI | 38–20 | -1.1 | -2.5 | +18.0 | 19.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | CHI @ WAS | 31–15 | +2.8 | +5.0 | +16.0 | 13.2 |
| 2019 | 3 | CIN @ BUF | 17–21 | -6.0 | -5.5 | -4.0 | 2.0 |
| 2019 | 3 | DEN @ GB | 16–27 | -5.1 | -7.0 | -11.0 | 5.9 |
| 2019 | 3 | DET @ PHI | 27–24 | -2.4 | -4.0 | +3.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | HOU @ LAC | 27–20 | -2.7 | -3.0 | +7.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | LA @ CLE | 20–13 | +3.4 | +4.0 | +7.0 | 3.6 |
| 2019 | 3 | MIA @ DAL | 6–31 | -28.2 | -22.0 | -25.0 | 3.2 |
| 2019 | 3 | NO @ SEA | 33–27 | -6.3 | -5.0 | +6.0 | 12.3 |
| 2019 | 3 | NYG @ TB | 32–31 | -6.3 | -5.0 | +1.0 | 7.3 |
| 2019 | 3 | NYJ @ NE | 14–30 | -19.3 | -20.5 | -16.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | LV @ MIN | 14–34 | -8.7 | -8.5 | -20.0 | 11.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | PIT @ SF | 20–24 | -9.1 | -6.0 | -4.0 | 5.1 |
| 2019 | 3 | TEN @ JAX | 7–20 | +1.3 | +1.5 | -13.0 | 14.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 2 | ARI @ BAL | 17–23 | -14.8 | -13.0 | -6.0 | 8.8 |
| 2019 | 2 | BUF @ NYG | 28–14 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +14.0 | 13.4 |
| 2019 | 2 | CHI @ DEN | 16–14 | +1.2 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 2 | CLE @ NYJ | 23–3 | +2.6 | +6.5 | +20.0 | 17.4 |
| 2019 | 2 | DAL @ WAS | 31–21 | +4.6 | +6.0 | +10.0 | 5.4 |
| 2019 | 2 | IND @ TEN | 19–17 | -2.3 | -3.0 | +2.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 2 | JAX @ HOU | 12–13 | -5.5 | -7.5 | -1.0 | 4.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 2 | KC @ LV | 28–10 | +5.3 | +7.0 | +18.0 | 12.7 |
| 2019 | 2 | LAC @ DET | 10–13 | +0.1 | +1.0 | -3.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 2 | MIN @ GB | 16–21 | -0.7 | -3.0 | -5.0 | 4.3 |
| 2019 | 2 | NE @ MIA | 43–0 | +15.8 | +18.0 | +43.0 | 27.2 |
| 2019 | 2 | NO @ LA | 9–27 | -6.9 | -2.0 | -18.0 | 11.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 2 | PHI @ ATL | 20–24 | +2.4 | +1.0 | -4.0 | 6.4 |
| 2019 | 2 | SEA @ PIT | 28–26 | +1.5 | -4.0 | +2.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 2 | SF @ CIN | 41–17 | -1.2 | -1.0 | +24.0 | 25.2 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.