Backtest History
269 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5 | LV @ KC | 40–32 | -13.0 | -11.0 | +8.0 | 21.0 |
| 2020 | 5 | MIA @ SF | 43–17 | -9.6 | -8.5 | +26.0 | 35.6 |
| 2020 | 5 | MIN @ SEA | 26–27 | -6.1 | -6.5 | -1.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 5 | NYG @ DAL | 34–37 | -8.6 | -7.5 | -3.0 | 5.6 |
| 2020 | 5 | PHI @ PIT | 29–38 | -7.1 | -7.5 | -9.0 | 1.9 |
| 2020 | 5 | TB @ CHI | 19–20 | +5.5 | +3.5 | -1.0 | 6.5 |
| 2020 | 4 | ARI @ CAR | 21–31 | +4.0 | +3.0 | -10.0 | 14.0 |
| 2020 | 4 | ATL @ GB | 16–30 | -8.2 | -5.0 | -14.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | BAL @ WAS | 31–17 | +12.5 | +14.5 | +14.0 | 1.5 |
| 2020 | 4 | BUF @ LV | 30–23 | +3.6 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | CLE @ DAL | 49–38 | -4.1 | -3.5 | +11.0 | 15.1 |
| 2020 | 4 | DEN @ NYJ | 37–28 | +2.7 | -1.0 | +9.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | IND @ CHI | 19–11 | +3.9 | +3.5 | +8.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | JAX @ CIN | 25–33 | -3.0 | -1.0 | -8.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | LAC @ TB | 31–38 | -6.9 | -7.5 | -7.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | MIN @ HOU | 31–23 | -2.0 | -3.5 | +8.0 | 10.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | NE @ KC | 10–26 | -9.5 | -7.0 | -16.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | NO @ DET | 35–29 | +4.9 | +3.0 | +6.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | NYG @ LA | 9–17 | -15.8 | -13.5 | -8.0 | 7.8 |
| 2020 | 4 | PHI @ SF | 25–20 | -14.2 | -8.5 | +5.0 | 19.2 |
| 2020 | 4 | SEA @ MIA | 31–23 | +3.0 | +4.5 | +8.0 | 5.0 |
| 2020 | 3 | CAR @ LAC | 21–16 | -7.8 | -6.0 | +5.0 | 12.8 |
| 2020 | 3 | CHI @ ATL | 30–26 | -2.2 | -2.5 | +4.0 | 6.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | CIN @ PHI | 23–23 | -1.2 | -5.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | DAL @ SEA | 31–38 | -6.2 | -5.5 | -7.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | DET @ ARI | 26–23 | -9.2 | -4.5 | +3.0 | 12.2 |
| 2020 | 3 | GB @ NO | 37–30 | +0.3 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | HOU @ PIT | 21–28 | -6.9 | -4.0 | -7.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | KC @ BAL | 34–20 | -5.4 | -3.5 | +14.0 | 19.4 |
| 2020 | 3 | LA @ BUF | 32–35 | -1.1 | -1.5 | -3.0 | 1.9 |
| 2020 | 3 | LV @ NE | 20–36 | -6.4 | -7.0 | -16.0 | 9.6 |
| 2020 | 3 | MIA @ JAX | 31–13 | -5.0 | -3.0 | +18.0 | 23.0 |
| 2020 | 3 | NYJ @ IND | 7–36 | -13.3 | -12.5 | -29.0 | 15.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | SF @ NYG | 36–9 | +5.5 | +3.0 | +27.0 | 21.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | TB @ DEN | 28–10 | +4.5 | +6.0 | +18.0 | 13.5 |
| 2020 | 3 | TEN @ MIN | 31–30 | +4.7 | +3.0 | +1.0 | 3.7 |
| 2020 | 3 | WAS @ CLE | 20–34 | -6.8 | -7.5 | -14.0 | 7.2 |
| 2020 | 2 | ATL @ DAL | 39–40 | -5.1 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 4.1 |
| 2020 | 2 | BAL @ HOU | 33–16 | +9.6 | +7.5 | +17.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 2 | BUF @ MIA | 31–28 | +7.6 | +5.5 | +3.0 | 4.6 |
| 2020 | 2 | CAR @ TB | 17–31 | -7.4 | -7.5 | -14.0 | 6.6 |
| 2020 | 2 | CIN @ CLE | 30–35 | -3.8 | -6.0 | -5.0 | 1.2 |
| 2020 | 2 | DEN @ PIT | 21–26 | -9.7 | -6.0 | -5.0 | 4.7 |
| 2020 | 2 | DET @ GB | 21–42 | -9.1 | -7.0 | -21.0 | 11.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 2 | JAX @ TEN | 30–33 | -7.5 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 4.5 |
| 2020 | 2 | KC @ LAC | 23–20 | +6.6 | +8.5 | +3.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 2 | LA @ PHI | 37–19 | -0.2 | -2.0 | +18.0 | 18.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 2 | MIN @ IND | 11–28 | -4.0 | -3.5 | -17.0 | 13.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 2 | NE @ SEA | 30–35 | -4.7 | -4.0 | -5.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 2 | NO @ LV | 24–34 | +2.4 | +4.0 | -10.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.