Backtest History
284 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6 | NYJ @ GB | 27–10 | -6.6 | -7.5 | +17.0 | 23.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | SF @ ATL | 14–28 | +7.0 | +3.5 | -14.0 | 21.0 |
| 2022 | 6 | TB @ PIT | 18–20 | +8.7 | +10.0 | -2.0 | 10.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | WAS @ CHI | 12–7 | -1.4 | +1.0 | +5.0 | 6.4 |
| 2022 | 5 | ATL @ TB | 15–21 | -9.5 | -10.5 | -6.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | CHI @ MIN | 22–29 | -7.1 | -10.0 | -7.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | CIN @ BAL | 17–19 | -1.9 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | DAL @ LA | 22–10 | -1.8 | -5.5 | +12.0 | 13.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | DET @ NE | 0–29 | -1.1 | -3.0 | -29.0 | 27.9 |
| 2022 | 5 | HOU @ JAX | 13–6 | -11.7 | -7.0 | +7.0 | 18.7 |
| 2022 | 5 | IND @ DEN | 12–9 | -4.0 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 7.0 |
| 2022 | 5 | LAC @ CLE | 30–28 | +1.3 | +1.0 | +2.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | LV @ KC | 29–30 | -9.2 | -7.5 | -1.0 | 8.2 |
| 2022 | 5 | MIA @ NYJ | 17–40 | +5.8 | +3.0 | -23.0 | 28.8 |
| 2022 | 5 | NYG vs GB | 27–22 | -6.7 | -8.5 | +5.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | PHI @ ARI | 20–17 | +9.0 | +5.5 | +3.0 | 6.0 |
| 2022 | 5 | PIT @ BUF | 3–38 | -15.9 | -14.0 | -35.0 | 19.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | SEA @ NO | 32–39 | -1.1 | -5.5 | -7.0 | 5.9 |
| 2022 | 5 | SF @ CAR | 37–15 | +8.5 | +6.0 | +22.0 | 13.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | TEN @ WAS | 21–17 | +2.4 | +1.0 | +4.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | ARI @ CAR | 26–16 | -2.8 | -1.0 | +10.0 | 12.8 |
| 2022 | 4 | BUF @ BAL | 23–20 | +4.6 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2022 | 4 | CHI @ NYG | 12–20 | -1.7 | -3.0 | -8.0 | 6.3 |
| 2022 | 4 | CLE @ ATL | 20–23 | +1.7 | +1.0 | -3.0 | 4.7 |
| 2022 | 4 | DEN @ LV | 23–32 | -1.2 | -2.5 | -9.0 | 7.8 |
| 2022 | 4 | JAX @ PHI | 21–29 | -6.7 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | KC @ TB | 41–31 | -0.7 | -1.0 | +10.0 | 10.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | LA @ SF | 9–24 | -2.2 | -1.0 | -15.0 | 12.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | LAC @ HOU | 34–24 | +3.9 | +5.5 | +10.0 | 6.1 |
| 2022 | 4 | MIA @ CIN | 15–27 | -1.0 | -4.0 | -12.0 | 11.0 |
| 2022 | 4 | MIN vs NO | 28–25 | +4.5 | +4.0 | +3.0 | 1.5 |
| 2022 | 4 | NE @ GB | 24–27 | -9.6 | -10.0 | -3.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | NYJ @ PIT | 24–20 | -7.1 | -3.0 | +4.0 | 11.1 |
| 2022 | 4 | SEA @ DET | 48–45 | -4.3 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 7.3 |
| 2022 | 4 | TEN @ IND | 24–17 | -2.2 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 9.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | WAS @ DAL | 10–25 | -5.3 | -3.0 | -15.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | ATL @ SEA | 27–23 | -1.9 | -1.0 | +4.0 | 5.9 |
| 2022 | 3 | BAL @ NE | 37–26 | +2.7 | +2.5 | +11.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | BUF @ MIA | 19–21 | +4.4 | +4.0 | -2.0 | 6.4 |
| 2022 | 3 | CIN @ NYJ | 27–12 | +4.0 | +6.5 | +15.0 | 11.0 |
| 2022 | 3 | DAL @ NYG | 23–16 | -1.2 | -1.0 | +7.0 | 8.2 |
| 2022 | 3 | DET @ MIN | 24–28 | -5.0 | -6.5 | -4.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | GB @ TB | 14–12 | -4.8 | -1.0 | +2.0 | 6.8 |
| 2022 | 3 | HOU @ CHI | 20–23 | -3.5 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.5 |
| 2022 | 3 | JAX @ LAC | 38–10 | -3.3 | -6.5 | +28.0 | 31.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | KC @ IND | 17–20 | +7.7 | +4.5 | -3.0 | 10.7 |
| 2022 | 3 | LA @ ARI | 20–12 | +2.3 | +3.5 | +8.0 | 5.7 |
| 2022 | 3 | LV @ TEN | 22–24 | +0.7 | +1.5 | -2.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | NO @ CAR | 14–22 | -0.0 | +2.0 | -8.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | PHI @ WAS | 24–8 | +7.5 | +6.0 | +16.0 | 8.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.