Backtest History
285 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 6 | NE @ LV | 17–21 | -5.6 | -3.0 | -4.0 | 1.6 |
| 2023 | 6 | NO @ HOU | 13–20 | -0.4 | +2.0 | -7.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 6 | NYG @ BUF | 9–14 | -18.7 | -15.5 | -5.0 | 13.7 |
| 2023 | 6 | PHI @ NYJ | 14–20 | +6.4 | +6.5 | -6.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 6 | SEA @ CIN | 13–17 | -0.1 | -3.0 | -4.0 | 3.9 |
| 2023 | 6 | SF @ CLE | 17–19 | +14.0 | +9.5 | -2.0 | 16.0 |
| 2023 | 6 | WAS @ ATL | 24–16 | -2.6 | -1.5 | +8.0 | 10.6 |
| 2023 | 5 | BAL @ PIT | 10–17 | +7.4 | +4.5 | -7.0 | 14.4 |
| 2023 | 5 | CAR @ DET | 24–42 | -11.6 | -9.5 | -18.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 5 | CHI @ WAS | 40–20 | -7.6 | -6.0 | +20.0 | 27.6 |
| 2023 | 5 | CIN @ ARI | 34–20 | -0.9 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 14.9 |
| 2023 | 5 | DAL @ SF | 10–42 | -3.8 | -3.5 | -32.0 | 28.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 5 | GB @ LV | 13–17 | -1.7 | -1.0 | -4.0 | 2.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 5 | HOU @ ATL | 19–21 | +3.2 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 5.2 |
| 2023 | 5 | JAX vs BUF | 25–20 | -8.8 | -5.5 | +5.0 | 13.8 |
| 2023 | 5 | KC @ MIN | 27–20 | +6.4 | +3.5 | +7.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 5 | NO @ NE | 34–0 | -1.1 | -2.5 | +34.0 | 35.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 5 | NYG @ MIA | 16–31 | -15.3 | -12.5 | -15.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 5 | NYJ @ DEN | 31–21 | +0.3 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 5 | PHI @ LA | 23–14 | +2.7 | +3.5 | +9.0 | 6.3 |
| 2023 | 5 | TEN @ IND | 16–23 | +0.7 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 4 | ARI @ SF | 16–35 | -14.1 | -15.0 | -19.0 | 4.9 |
| 2023 | 4 | ATL vs JAX | 7–23 | -0.7 | -3.5 | -16.0 | 15.3 |
| 2023 | 4 | BAL @ CLE | 28–3 | +1.0 | +2.0 | +25.0 | 24.0 |
| 2023 | 4 | CIN @ TEN | 3–27 | +2.8 | +2.5 | -24.0 | 26.8 |
| 2023 | 4 | DEN @ CHI | 31–28 | +3.5 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.5 |
| 2023 | 4 | DET @ GB | 34–20 | +0.8 | +2.5 | +14.0 | 13.2 |
| 2023 | 4 | KC @ NYJ | 23–20 | +10.9 | +9.5 | +3.0 | 7.9 |
| 2023 | 4 | LA @ IND | 29–23 | +2.3 | +1.0 | +6.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 4 | LV @ LAC | 17–24 | -13.2 | -7.0 | -7.0 | 6.2 |
| 2023 | 4 | MIA @ BUF | 20–48 | -0.6 | -2.5 | -28.0 | 27.4 |
| 2023 | 4 | MIN @ CAR | 21–13 | +3.5 | +4.5 | +8.0 | 4.5 |
| 2023 | 4 | NE @ DAL | 3–38 | -7.2 | -6.5 | -35.0 | 27.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 4 | PIT @ HOU | 6–30 | -1.1 | +3.0 | -24.0 | 22.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 4 | SEA @ NYG | 24–3 | +5.6 | +2.5 | +21.0 | 15.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 4 | TB @ NO | 26–9 | -5.0 | -4.0 | +17.0 | 22.0 |
| 2023 | 4 | WAS @ PHI | 31–34 | -13.5 | -9.5 | -3.0 | 10.5 |
| 2023 | 3 | ATL @ DET | 6–20 | -1.1 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 12.9 |
| 2023 | 3 | BUF @ WAS | 37–3 | +4.8 | +5.5 | +34.0 | 29.2 |
| 2023 | 3 | CAR @ SEA | 27–37 | -3.7 | -5.0 | -10.0 | 6.3 |
| 2023 | 3 | CHI @ KC | 10–41 | -13.8 | -13.0 | -31.0 | 17.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 3 | DAL @ ARI | 16–28 | +12.6 | +11.5 | -12.0 | 24.6 |
| 2023 | 3 | DEN @ MIA | 20–70 | -8.1 | -6.0 | -50.0 | 41.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 3 | HOU @ JAX | 37–17 | -6.2 | -7.5 | +20.0 | 26.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 3 | IND @ BAL | 22–19 | -5.9 | -7.5 | +3.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 3 | LA @ CIN | 16–19 | -0.6 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 2.4 |
| 2023 | 3 | LAC @ MIN | 28–24 | +0.4 | -1.0 | +4.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 3 | NE @ NYJ | 15–10 | -0.7 | +2.5 | +5.0 | 5.7 |
| 2023 | 3 | NO @ GB | 17–18 | -1.6 | +1.5 | -1.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 3 | NYG @ SF | 12–30 | -15.2 | -10.5 | -18.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.