Backtest History
285 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | IND @ TEN | 20–17 | +0.8 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | JAX vs CHI | 16–35 | -4.7 | +1.5 | -19.0 | 14.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | LAC @ DEN | 23–16 | +0.7 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 6.3 |
| 2024 | 6 | PIT @ LV | 32–13 | +4.5 | +3.5 | +19.0 | 14.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | SF @ SEA | 36–24 | +5.1 | +3.5 | +12.0 | 6.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | TB @ NO | 51–27 | +2.4 | +3.5 | +24.0 | 21.6 |
| 2024 | 6 | WAS @ BAL | 23–30 | -6.0 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 1.0 |
| 2024 | 5 | ARI @ SF | 24–23 | -9.6 | -7.0 | +1.0 | 10.6 |
| 2024 | 5 | BAL @ CIN | 41–38 | +4.0 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 1.0 |
| 2024 | 5 | BUF @ HOU | 20–23 | +2.0 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 5.0 |
| 2024 | 5 | CAR @ CHI | 10–36 | -4.2 | -4.0 | -26.0 | 21.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | CLE @ WAS | 13–34 | -8.5 | -3.0 | -21.0 | 12.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | DAL @ PIT | 20–17 | -4.3 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 7.3 |
| 2024 | 5 | GB @ LA | 24–19 | +5.7 | +3.0 | +5.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | IND @ JAX | 34–37 | +1.8 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 4.8 |
| 2024 | 5 | LV @ DEN | 18–34 | -3.8 | -3.0 | -16.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | MIA @ NE | 15–10 | +1.8 | +2.0 | +5.0 | 3.2 |
| 2024 | 5 | NO @ KC | 13–26 | -2.8 | -5.5 | -13.0 | 10.2 |
| 2024 | 5 | NYG @ SEA | 29–20 | -5.3 | -7.0 | +9.0 | 14.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | NYJ vs MIN | 17–23 | -3.7 | -2.5 | -6.0 | 2.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | TB @ ATL | 30–36 | -1.3 | -2.5 | -6.0 | 4.7 |
| 2024 | 4 | BUF @ BAL | 10–35 | +2.1 | -2.5 | -25.0 | 27.1 |
| 2024 | 4 | CIN @ CAR | 34–24 | +2.6 | +4.5 | +10.0 | 7.4 |
| 2024 | 4 | CLE @ LV | 16–20 | -0.4 | +2.5 | -4.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | DAL @ NYG | 20–15 | +1.1 | +5.5 | +5.0 | 3.9 |
| 2024 | 4 | DEN @ NYJ | 10–9 | -7.5 | -7.5 | +1.0 | 8.5 |
| 2024 | 4 | JAX @ HOU | 20–24 | -7.5 | -5.5 | -4.0 | 3.5 |
| 2024 | 4 | KC @ LAC | 17–10 | +3.5 | +7.5 | +7.0 | 3.5 |
| 2024 | 4 | LA @ CHI | 18–24 | -3.5 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | MIN @ GB | 31–29 | -5.9 | -2.5 | +2.0 | 7.9 |
| 2024 | 4 | NE @ SF | 13–30 | -12.8 | -10.5 | -17.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | NO @ ATL | 24–26 | +1.6 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 3.6 |
| 2024 | 4 | PHI @ TB | 16–33 | +2.8 | +1.0 | -17.0 | 19.8 |
| 2024 | 4 | PIT @ IND | 24–27 | +3.3 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 6.3 |
| 2024 | 4 | SEA @ DET | 29–42 | -3.0 | -3.5 | -13.0 | 10.0 |
| 2024 | 4 | TEN @ MIA | 31–12 | -1.2 | -2.5 | +19.0 | 20.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | WAS @ ARI | 42–14 | -2.5 | -3.5 | +28.0 | 30.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | BAL @ DAL | 28–25 | +2.8 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | CAR @ LV | 36–22 | -3.9 | -5.5 | +14.0 | 17.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | CHI @ IND | 16–21 | -2.9 | -1.5 | -5.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | DEN @ TB | 26–7 | -7.4 | -6.0 | +19.0 | 26.4 |
| 2024 | 3 | DET @ ARI | 20–13 | -2.9 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 9.9 |
| 2024 | 3 | GB @ TEN | 30–14 | -2.6 | -3.0 | +16.0 | 18.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | HOU @ MIN | 7–34 | -0.7 | +2.0 | -27.0 | 26.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | JAX @ BUF | 10–47 | -8.5 | -4.0 | -37.0 | 28.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | KC @ ATL | 22–17 | +1.7 | +3.0 | +5.0 | 3.3 |
| 2024 | 3 | LAC @ PIT | 10–20 | -1.7 | -3.0 | -10.0 | 8.3 |
| 2024 | 3 | MIA @ SEA | 3–24 | -8.3 | -4.0 | -21.0 | 12.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | NE @ NYJ | 3–24 | -4.6 | -6.5 | -21.0 | 16.4 |
| 2024 | 3 | NYG @ CLE | 21–15 | -6.1 | -6.5 | +6.0 | 12.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.