Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1 | DET @ IND | 39–35 | -1.5 | -2.5 | +4.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 1 | GB @ JAX | 27–23 | +3.4 | +3.5 | +4.0 | 0.6 |
| 2016 | 1 | LA @ SF | 0–28 | +4.9 | +2.5 | -28.0 | 32.9 |
| 2016 | 1 | MIA @ SEA | 10–12 | -12.8 | -10.5 | -2.0 | 10.8 |
| 2016 | 1 | MIN @ TEN | 25–16 | +2.2 | +2.5 | +9.0 | 6.8 |
| 2016 | 1 | NE @ ARI | 23–21 | -8.5 | -9.0 | +2.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 1 | NYG @ DAL | 20–19 | +0.5 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 1 | LV @ NO | 35–34 | -5.3 | -2.5 | +1.0 | 6.3 |
| 2016 | 1 | PIT @ WAS | 38–16 | +2.1 | +2.5 | +22.0 | 19.9 |
| 2016 | 1 | LAC @ KC | 27–33 | -6.1 | -6.5 | -6.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 1 | TB @ ATL | 31–24 | -2.7 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 9.7 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.