Backtest History
267 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2 | TEN @ JAX | 37–16 | -3.2 | +1.0 | +21.0 | 24.2 |
| 2017 | 2 | WAS @ LA | 27–20 | -6.9 | -3.0 | +7.0 | 13.9 |
| 2017 | 1 | ARI @ DET | 23–35 | +1.4 | +2.5 | -12.0 | 13.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 1 | ATL @ CHI | 23–17 | +11.2 | +6.5 | +6.0 | 5.2 |
| 2017 | 1 | BAL @ CIN | 20–0 | -4.8 | -2.5 | +20.0 | 24.8 |
| 2017 | 1 | CAR @ SF | 23–3 | +2.6 | +4.5 | +20.0 | 17.4 |
| 2017 | 1 | IND @ LA | 9–46 | +2.5 | -3.5 | -37.0 | 39.5 |
| 2017 | 1 | JAX @ HOU | 29–7 | -4.7 | -5.5 | +22.0 | 26.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 1 | KC @ NE | 42–27 | -9.7 | -8.0 | +15.0 | 24.7 |
| 2017 | 1 | LAC @ DEN | 21–24 | -1.8 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2017 | 1 | NO @ MIN | 19–29 | -1.4 | -3.0 | -10.0 | 8.6 |
| 2017 | 1 | NYG @ DAL | 3–19 | -7.7 | -6.0 | -16.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 1 | NYJ @ BUF | 12–21 | -9.1 | -7.0 | -9.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 1 | LV @ TEN | 26–16 | -1.8 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 11.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 1 | PHI @ WAS | 30–17 | -2.4 | +2.0 | +13.0 | 15.4 |
| 2017 | 1 | PIT @ CLE | 21–18 | +11.1 | +10.0 | +3.0 | 8.1 |
| 2017 | 1 | SEA @ GB | 9–17 | -4.2 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 3.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.