Backtest History
267 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2 | SEA @ CHI | 17–24 | -3.4 | -5.0 | -7.0 | 3.6 |
| 2018 | 1 | ATL @ PHI | 12–18 | +0.4 | -1.0 | -6.0 | 6.4 |
| 2018 | 1 | BUF @ BAL | 3–47 | -9.5 | -7.5 | -44.0 | 34.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 1 | CHI @ GB | 23–24 | -9.1 | -6.5 | -1.0 | 8.1 |
| 2018 | 1 | CIN @ IND | 34–23 | -2.6 | +1.0 | +11.0 | 13.6 |
| 2018 | 1 | DAL @ CAR | 8–16 | -2.7 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 1 | HOU @ NE | 20–27 | -8.5 | -6.0 | -7.0 | 1.5 |
| 2018 | 1 | JAX @ NYG | 20–15 | +4.7 | +2.5 | +5.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 1 | KC @ LAC | 38–28 | -6.4 | -3.5 | +10.0 | 16.4 |
| 2018 | 1 | LA @ LV | 33–13 | +4.6 | +6.0 | +20.0 | 15.4 |
| 2018 | 1 | NYJ @ DET | 48–17 | -8.0 | -7.0 | +31.0 | 39.0 |
| 2018 | 1 | PIT @ CLE | 21–21 | +6.8 | +3.5 | 0.0 | 6.8 |
| 2018 | 1 | SEA @ DEN | 24–27 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 1.0 |
| 2018 | 1 | SF @ MIN | 16–24 | -0.9 | -6.0 | -8.0 | 7.1 |
| 2018 | 1 | TB @ NO | 48–40 | -10.4 | -10.0 | +8.0 | 18.4 |
| 2018 | 1 | TEN @ MIA | 20–27 | -3.6 | +1.0 | -7.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 1 | WAS @ ARI | 24–6 | -0.8 | -2.0 | +18.0 | 18.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.