Backtest History
267 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2 | TB @ CAR | 20–14 | -6.5 | -6.5 | +6.0 | 12.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 1 | ATL @ MIN | 12–28 | +0.5 | -3.5 | -16.0 | 16.5 |
| 2019 | 1 | BAL @ MIA | 59–10 | +3.1 | +7.0 | +49.0 | 45.9 |
| 2019 | 1 | BUF @ NYJ | 17–16 | -2.7 | -2.5 | +1.0 | 3.7 |
| 2019 | 1 | CIN @ SEA | 20–21 | -9.4 | -9.5 | -1.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 1 | DEN @ LV | 16–24 | +1.5 | +3.0 | -8.0 | 9.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 1 | DET @ ARI | 27–27 | +3.0 | +2.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 |
| 2019 | 1 | GB @ CHI | 10–3 | -2.9 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 1 | HOU @ NO | 28–30 | -7.7 | -6.5 | -2.0 | 5.7 |
| 2019 | 1 | IND @ LAC | 24–30 | -8.4 | -6.0 | -6.0 | 2.4 |
| 2019 | 1 | KC @ JAX | 40–26 | +8.2 | +3.5 | +14.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 1 | LA @ CAR | 30–27 | +1.8 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 1 | NYG @ DAL | 17–35 | -5.8 | -7.0 | -18.0 | 12.2 |
| 2019 | 1 | PIT @ NE | 3–33 | -4.8 | -5.5 | -30.0 | 25.2 |
| 2019 | 1 | SF @ TB | 31–17 | -0.3 | -1.0 | +14.0 | 14.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 1 | TEN @ CLE | 43–13 | -5.1 | -5.5 | +30.0 | 35.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 1 | WAS @ PHI | 27–32 | -10.7 | -10.5 | -5.0 | 5.7 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.