Backtest History
269 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | NYG @ CHI | 13–17 | -6.1 | -4.5 | -4.0 | 2.1 |
| 2020 | 2 | SF @ NYJ | 31–13 | +5.9 | +7.0 | +18.0 | 12.1 |
| 2020 | 2 | WAS @ ARI | 15–30 | -6.6 | -7.5 | -15.0 | 8.4 |
| 2020 | 1 | ARI @ SF | 24–20 | -8.8 | -7.0 | +4.0 | 12.8 |
| 2020 | 1 | CHI @ DET | 27–23 | -3.9 | -2.5 | +4.0 | 7.9 |
| 2020 | 1 | CLE @ BAL | 6–38 | -9.1 | -7.0 | -32.0 | 22.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 1 | DAL @ LA | 17–20 | +0.2 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 3.2 |
| 2020 | 1 | GB @ MIN | 43–34 | -0.3 | -1.0 | +9.0 | 9.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 1 | HOU @ KC | 20–34 | -11.1 | -9.5 | -14.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 1 | IND @ JAX | 20–27 | +7.9 | +7.0 | -7.0 | 14.9 |
| 2020 | 1 | LAC @ CIN | 16–13 | +2.6 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 1 | LV @ CAR | 34–30 | +3.7 | +3.0 | +4.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 1 | MIA @ NE | 11–21 | -4.9 | -7.5 | -10.0 | 5.1 |
| 2020 | 1 | NYJ @ BUF | 17–27 | -5.0 | -6.5 | -10.0 | 5.0 |
| 2020 | 1 | PHI @ WAS | 17–27 | +7.9 | +5.5 | -10.0 | 17.9 |
| 2020 | 1 | PIT @ NYG | 26–16 | +7.1 | +6.0 | +10.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 1 | SEA @ ATL | 38–25 | +1.3 | -1.0 | +13.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 1 | TB @ NO | 23–34 | -6.6 | -4.0 | -11.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 1 | TEN @ DEN | 16–14 | +2.6 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.