Backtest History
285 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3 | PHI @ NO | 15–12 | -8.1 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 11.1 |
| 2024 | 3 | SF @ LA | 24–27 | +8.0 | +6.0 | -3.0 | 11.0 |
| 2024 | 3 | WAS @ CIN | 38–33 | -6.3 | -7.5 | +5.0 | 11.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | ATL @ PHI | 22–21 | -5.7 | -5.5 | +1.0 | 6.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | BUF @ MIA | 31–10 | -1.8 | -2.5 | +21.0 | 22.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | CHI @ HOU | 13–19 | -6.5 | -6.0 | -6.0 | 0.5 |
| 2024 | 2 | CIN @ KC | 25–26 | -7.7 | -6.5 | -1.0 | 6.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | CLE @ JAX | 18–13 | -5.0 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 10.0 |
| 2024 | 2 | IND @ GB | 10–16 | +5.5 | +3.0 | -6.0 | 11.5 |
| 2024 | 2 | LA @ ARI | 10–41 | +1.0 | +1.0 | -31.0 | 32.0 |
| 2024 | 2 | LAC @ CAR | 26–3 | +7.8 | +5.0 | +23.0 | 15.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | LV @ BAL | 26–23 | -8.1 | -9.0 | +3.0 | 11.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | NO @ DAL | 44–19 | -2.5 | -6.5 | +25.0 | 27.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | NYG @ WAS | 18–21 | -5.2 | -1.5 | -3.0 | 2.2 |
| 2024 | 2 | NYJ @ TEN | 24–17 | +1.4 | +3.5 | +7.0 | 5.6 |
| 2024 | 2 | PIT @ DEN | 13–6 | +5.7 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | SEA @ NE | 23–20 | +1.1 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 1.9 |
| 2024 | 2 | SF @ MIN | 17–23 | +1.2 | +4.5 | -6.0 | 7.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | TB @ DET | 20–16 | -4.6 | -7.5 | +4.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | ARI @ BUF | 28–34 | -8.5 | -6.5 | -6.0 | 2.5 |
| 2024 | 1 | BAL @ KC | 20–27 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 4.0 |
| 2024 | 1 | CAR @ NO | 10–47 | -10.3 | -3.5 | -37.0 | 26.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | DAL @ CLE | 33–17 | +1.6 | -2.5 | +16.0 | 14.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | DEN @ SEA | 20–26 | -7.4 | -6.5 | -6.0 | 1.4 |
| 2024 | 1 | GB vs PHI | 29–34 | +2.5 | -2.0 | -5.0 | 7.5 |
| 2024 | 1 | HOU @ IND | 29–27 | +2.9 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | JAX @ MIA | 17–20 | -5.4 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 2.4 |
| 2024 | 1 | LA @ DET | 20–26 | -5.0 | -5.0 | -6.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | LV @ LAC | 10–22 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -12.0 | 9.3 |
| 2024 | 1 | MIN @ NYG | 28–6 | +0.9 | +1.0 | +22.0 | 21.1 |
| 2024 | 1 | NE @ CIN | 16–10 | -8.5 | -8.0 | +6.0 | 14.5 |
| 2024 | 1 | NYJ @ SF | 19–32 | -8.2 | -3.5 | -13.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | PIT @ ATL | 18–10 | -6.9 | -4.0 | +8.0 | 14.9 |
| 2024 | 1 | TEN @ CHI | 17–24 | -4.0 | -4.0 | -7.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | WAS @ TB | 20–37 | -6.9 | -4.0 | -17.0 | 10.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.