Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12 | PIT @ CLE | 19–24 | +3.4 | +3.5 | -5.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | SF @ GB | 10–38 | -9.3 | -6.5 | -28.0 | 18.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | TB @ NYG | 30–7 | +6.7 | +6.5 | +23.0 | 16.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | TEN @ HOU | 32–27 | -7.6 | -8.0 | +5.0 | 12.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | ATL @ DEN | 6–38 | -2.3 | -2.0 | -32.0 | 29.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | BAL @ PIT | 16–18 | +5.6 | +3.0 | -2.0 | 7.6 |
| 2024 | 11 | CIN @ LAC | 27–34 | -2.6 | -1.0 | -7.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | CLE @ NO | 14–35 | -2.7 | +1.0 | -21.0 | 18.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | GB @ CHI | 20–19 | +5.6 | +6.0 | +1.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | HOU @ DAL | 34–10 | +9.0 | +7.5 | +24.0 | 15.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | IND @ NYJ | 28–27 | -3.0 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | JAX @ DET | 6–52 | -17.1 | -14.0 | -46.0 | 28.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | KC @ BUF | 21–30 | -3.3 | -2.5 | -9.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | LA @ NE | 28–22 | +4.9 | +4.0 | +6.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | LV @ MIA | 19–34 | -9.5 | -8.0 | -15.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | MIN @ TEN | 23–13 | +6.6 | +6.0 | +10.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | SEA @ SF | 20–17 | -8.8 | -6.0 | +3.0 | 11.8 |
| 2024 | 11 | WAS @ PHI | 18–26 | -3.2 | -4.5 | -8.0 | 4.8 |
| 2024 | 10 | ATL @ NO | 17–20 | +0.4 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | BUF @ IND | 30–20 | +5.9 | +4.5 | +10.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | CIN @ BAL | 34–35 | -8.9 | -6.0 | -1.0 | 7.9 |
| 2024 | 10 | DEN @ KC | 14–16 | -7.8 | -7.5 | -2.0 | 5.8 |
| 2024 | 10 | DET @ HOU | 26–23 | +7.1 | +4.5 | +3.0 | 4.1 |
| 2024 | 10 | MIA @ LA | 23–15 | -0.7 | -2.5 | +8.0 | 8.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | MIN @ JAX | 12–7 | +9.8 | +7.0 | +5.0 | 4.8 |
| 2024 | 10 | NE @ CHI | 19–3 | -11.0 | -6.5 | +16.0 | 27.0 |
| 2024 | 10 | NYG vs CAR | 17–20 | +9.4 | +6.5 | -3.0 | 12.4 |
| 2024 | 10 | NYJ @ ARI | 6–31 | +0.8 | +2.0 | -25.0 | 25.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | PHI @ DAL | 34–6 | +10.1 | +7.5 | +28.0 | 17.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | PIT @ WAS | 28–27 | -4.3 | -1.5 | +1.0 | 5.3 |
| 2024 | 10 | SF @ TB | 23–20 | +3.3 | +6.5 | +3.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | TEN @ LAC | 17–27 | -10.3 | -8.0 | -10.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | CHI @ ARI | 9–29 | +1.1 | -1.5 | -20.0 | 21.1 |
| 2024 | 9 | DAL @ ATL | 21–27 | -5.6 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | DEN @ BAL | 10–41 | -8.8 | -9.0 | -31.0 | 22.2 |
| 2024 | 9 | DET @ GB | 24–14 | +2.3 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 7.7 |
| 2024 | 9 | HOU @ NYJ | 13–21 | -1.3 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 6.7 |
| 2024 | 9 | IND @ MIN | 13–21 | -5.5 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 2.5 |
| 2024 | 9 | JAX @ PHI | 23–28 | -7.9 | -7.5 | -5.0 | 2.9 |
| 2024 | 9 | LA @ SEA | 26–20 | +1.2 | +1.5 | +6.0 | 4.8 |
| 2024 | 9 | LAC @ CLE | 27–10 | +2.0 | +2.0 | +17.0 | 15.0 |
| 2024 | 9 | LV @ CIN | 24–41 | -7.8 | -8.0 | -17.0 | 9.2 |
| 2024 | 9 | MIA @ BUF | 27–30 | -9.9 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 6.9 |
| 2024 | 9 | NE @ TEN | 17–20 | -6.7 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 3.7 |
| 2024 | 9 | NO @ CAR | 22–23 | +14.0 | +7.0 | -1.0 | 15.0 |
| 2024 | 9 | TB @ KC | 24–30 | -7.5 | -9.0 | -6.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | WAS @ NYG | 27–22 | +8.6 | +4.5 | +5.0 | 3.6 |
| 2024 | 8 | ARI @ MIA | 28–27 | -3.0 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | ATL @ TB | 31–26 | -1.9 | +1.5 | +5.0 | 6.9 |
| 2024 | 8 | BAL @ CLE | 24–29 | +9.8 | +7.5 | -5.0 | 14.8 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.