Heisman Trophy Tracker
2026 · Through week 6
A weekly Heisman Trophy forecast in two boards that are meant to disagree. The value board measures what a player's plays were worth in points above a replacement at his position, adjusted for every defense and offense he faced. The Heisman board forecasts how the voters will actually rank the candidates, fit on sixteen years of ballots. The gap between them is the story.
Predicted vote share through week 6. The gap column is the player's value rank minus his predicted finish: negative means the plays say he is better than the voters will, positive means the narrative is carrying him.
| # | Player | Share | Value rank | Gap | Record | AP | Season line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darian Mensah Miami · QB | 13.7% | #9 | +8 | 100% | 4 | 1438 pass yds, 15 TD, 0 INT · 79 rush yds, 2 TD |
| 2 | Jeremiah Smith Ohio State · WR | 13.5% | #36 | +34 | 83% | 5 | 5 rush yds, 0 TD · 916 rec yds, 11 TD |
| 3 | C.J. Carr Notre Dame · QB | 9.1% | #19 | +16 | 100% | 3 | 1378 pass yds, 16 TD, 1 INT · 69 rush yds, 3 TD |
| 4 | Josh Hoover Indiana · QB | 7.2% | #7 | +3 | 100% | 7 | 1364 pass yds, 17 TD, 0 INT · 42 rush yds, 1 TD |
| 5 | Gunner Stockton Georgia · QB | 6.3% | #20 | +15 | 100% | 2 | 1298 pass yds, 14 TD, 2 INT · 134 rush yds, 1 TD |
| 6 | Julian Sayin Ohio State · QB | 5.8% | #2 | -4 | 83% | 5 | 1772 pass yds, 17 TD, 2 INT · 17 rush yds, 2 TD |
| 7 | Keelon Russell Alabama · QB | 4.0% | #5 | -2 | 83% | 6 | 1599 pass yds, 12 TD, 2 INT · 225 rush yds, 4 TD |
| 8 | Devon Dampier Utah · QB | 3.0% | #37 | +29 | 100% | 12 | 1134 pass yds, 12 TD, 2 INT · 207 rush yds, 3 TD |
| 9 | Bear Bachmeier BYU · QB | 2.7% | #30 | +21 | 100% | 8 | 1033 pass yds, 8 TD, 1 INT · 239 rush yds, 4 TD |
| 10 | Kamario Taylor Mississippi State · QB | 2.4% | #23 | +13 | 80% | 17 | 1450 pass yds, 17 TD, 4 INT · 159 rush yds, 1 TD |
| 11 | Braden Atkinson Oregon State · QB | 1.6% | #14 | +3 | 67% | – | 2236 pass yds, 21 TD, 2 INT · 4 rec yds, 1 TD |
| 12 | Trinidad Chambliss Ole Miss · QB | 1.5% | #8 | -4 | 80% | 9 | 1435 pass yds, 11 TD, 4 INT · 113 rush yds, 5 TD |
| 13 | Jamal Roberts Missouri · RB | 1.5% | #95 | +82 | 83% | 14 | 828 rush yds, 8 TD · 84 rec yds, 0 TD |
| 14 | Arch Manning Texas · QB | 1.5% | #73 | +59 | 80% | 1 | 1125 pass yds, 10 TD, 5 INT · 99 rush yds, 0 TD |
| 15 | Conner Weigman Houston · QB | 1.4% | #3 | -12 | 83% | 22 | 1427 pass yds, 15 TD, 1 INT · 177 rush yds, 6 TD |
| 16 | Austin Simmons Missouri · QB | 1.3% | #31 | +15 | 83% | 14 | 1417 pass yds, 14 TD, 1 INT · 34 rush yds, 0 TD |
| 17 | Nate Sheppard Duke · RB | 1.1% | #41 | +24 | 80% | – | 743 rush yds, 8 TD · 161 rec yds, 3 TD |
| 18 | Jayden Maiava USC · QB | 1.0% | #4 | -14 | 86% | 19 | 2045 pass yds, 18 TD, 3 INT |
| 19 | Mason Heintschel Pittsburgh · QB | 0.8% | #62 | +43 | 83% | 25 | 1304 pass yds, 14 TD, 1 INT · 112 rush yds, 1 TD |
| 20 | Giovanni Lopez Wake Forest · QB | 0.8% | #1 | -19 | 83% | – | 1680 pass yds, 13 TD, 1 INT · 203 rush yds, 6 TD |
| 21 | Dylan Riley Boise State · RB | 0.8% | #45 | +24 | 83% | 23 | 835 rush yds, 6 TD · 120 rec yds, 1 TD |
| 22 | Drew Mestemaker Oklahoma State · QB | 0.7% | #93 | +71 | 80% | 18 | 1575 pass yds, 13 TD, 5 INT · 108 rush yds, 2 TD |
| 23 | Michael Hawkins Jr. West Virginia · QB | 0.7% | #27 | +4 | 50% | – | 1055 pass yds, 7 TD, 1 INT · 672 rush yds, 12 TD |
| 24 | Maddux Madsen Boise State · QB | 0.6% | #6 | -18 | 83% | 23 | 1296 pass yds, 13 TD, 0 INT · 110 rush yds, 1 TD · 6 rec yds, 0 TD |
| 25 | Jadan Baugh Florida · RB | 0.6% | #59 | +34 | 67% | 16 | 672 rush yds, 12 TD · 46 rec yds, 0 TD |
Where the voters and the value disagree
The six leading voter forecasts, through week 6: value rank minus predicted Heisman finish. These are forecast ranks, not actual votes. Value ranks cover the full player pool; voter ranks cover ballot candidates.
6 paired entries · places
Jeremiah Smith (+34 places)
Ohio State · Voter #2 · Value #36
C.J. Carr (+16 places)
Notre Dame · Voter #3 · Value #19
Gunner Stockton (+15 places)
Georgia · Voter #5 · Value #20
Darian Mensah (+8 places)
Miami · Voter #1 · Value #9
Julian Sayin (-4 places)
Ohio State · Voter #6 · Value #2
Josh Hoover (+3 places)
Indiana · Voter #4 · Value #7
0 = agreement · same scale for every row