College Football Pick History

The side, line, and odds recorded before kickoff, with each pick's result.

Forecast & backtest history

Record5-14-0wins / losses / pushes

Win rate26.3%

Net profit-9.18uFlat 1u per recommended pick

ROI-48.3%

Picks settled191 pending · 0 void

Average EV14.8%

Times shown in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

Recorded CFB decisions
Market / pick	Odds	EV	Result	Profit
Memphis at Tulane Fri, Oct 16 · 7:30 PM
Moneyline No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model / 80% paired market · margin blend Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV 2.4% Win 32.5% · Push 0.0% Edge: 0.8 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model/history / 80% market margin with football key-number weights Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV 4.0% Win 53.1% · Push 4.7% Edge: 2.3 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Total No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV -3.6% Win 50.5% · Push 0.0% Edge: -1.9 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Columbia at Pennsylvania Fri, Oct 16 · 7:00 PM
Moneyline No Play Incomplete model inputs Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model / 80% paired market · margin blend Missing inputs: home 6, away 6. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: unavailable EV – Win – · Push – Edge: – pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: unavailable	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Incomplete model inputs Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model/history / 80% market margin with football key-number weights Missing inputs: home 6, away 6. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: unavailable EV – Win – · Push – Edge: – pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: unavailable	–	–	No Play	–
Total
Colorado State at Texas State Thu, Oct 15 · 8:00 PM
Moneyline No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model / 80% paired market · margin blend Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV -2.0% Win 18.7% · Push 0.0% Edge: -0.4 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model/history / 80% market margin with football key-number weights Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV -0.1% Win 50.6% · Push 3.3% Edge: -0.1 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
East Carolina at UAB Thu, Oct 15 · 7:30 PM
Moneyline No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model / 80% paired market · margin blend Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV -3.9% Win 37.0% · Push 0.0% Edge: -1.5 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model/history / 80% market margin with football key-number weights Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV -0.6% Win 52.1% · Push 0.0% Edge: -0.3 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Georgia Southern at Old Dominion Thu, Oct 15 · 7:30 PM
Moneyline No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model / 80% paired market · margin blend Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV -1.2% Win 39.5% · Push 0.0% Edge: -0.5 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model/history / 80% market margin with football key-number weights Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV 2.8% Win 53.0% · Push 2.5% Edge: 1.5 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Western Kentucky at Sam Houston Wed, Oct 14 · 8:00 PM
Moneyline No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model / 80% paired market · margin blend Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV -4.5% Win 48.9% · Push 0.0% Edge: -2.3 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model/history / 80% market margin with football key-number weights Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV -0.9% Win 50.0% · Push 0.0% Edge: -0.5 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Kennesaw State at Missouri State Wed, Oct 14 · 7:30 PM
Moneyline No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model / 80% paired market · margin blend Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV -0.6% Win 42.1% · Push 0.0% Edge: -0.3 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model/history / 80% market margin with football key-number weights Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV 3.9% Win 49.6% · Push 5.7% Edge: 2.1 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Florida International at Jacksonville State Tue, Oct 13 · 8:00 PM
Moneyline No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model / 80% paired market · margin blend Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV -0.8% Win 58.2% · Push 0.0% Edge: -0.4 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model/history / 80% market margin with football key-number weights Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV -3.3% Win 47.3% · Push 5.7% Edge: -1.8 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Delaware at Middle Tennessee Tue, Oct 13 · 7:00 PM
Moneyline No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model / 80% paired market · margin blend Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV -3.7% Win 47.7% · Push 0.0% Edge: -1.9 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-12T22:04:53.596Z Rule: cfb-picks-v11 Probability: 20% model/history / 80% market margin with football key-number weights Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468337+00:00 EV -4.3% Win 50.6% · Push 0.0% Edge: -2.3 pp Forecast: 2026-10-12T18:09:35.021Z Price captured: 2026-10-12T22:04:47.468Z	–	–	No Play	–
Boise State at Fresno State 38 - 31Sat, Oct 10 · 10:30 PM
Moneyline No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-05T18:01:21+00:00 EV 3.1% Win 33.7% · Push 0.0% Edge: 1.0 pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: 2026-10-05T18:02:48.511Z	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-05T18:02:05+00:00 EV 0.9% Win 51.9% · Push 2.6% Edge: 0.5 pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: 2026-10-05T18:02:48.511Z	–	–	No Play	–

Kansas at Utah 24 - 41Sat, Oct 10 · 10:15 PM
Moneyline No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-05T18:02:32+00:00 EV -10.1% Win 14.4% · Push 0.0% Edge: -1.6 pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: 2026-10-05T18:02:48.511Z	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-05T18:02:32+00:00 EV 4.2% Win 52.8% · Push 2.6% Edge: 2.3 pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: 2026-10-05T18:02:48.511Z	–	–	No Play	–
Total
Hawai'i at Arizona State 12 - 30Sat, Oct 10 · 9:30 PM
Moneyline No Play Provider kickoff does not match the schedule Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-05T18:02:32+00:00 EV -11.6% Win 8.4% · Push 0.0% Edge: -1.1 pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: 2026-10-05T18:02:48.511Z	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Provider kickoff does not match the schedule Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-05T18:02:05+00:00 EV 0.3% Win 51.6% · Push 0.0% Edge: 0.2 pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: 2026-10-05T18:02:48.511Z	–	–	No Play	–
Minnesota at Purdue 13 - 41Sat, Oct 10 · 8:00 PM
Moneyline No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-05T18:01:53+00:00 EV -2.2% Win 55.3% · Push 0.0% Edge: -1.3 pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: 2026-10-05T18:02:48.511Z	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-05T18:02:34+00:00 EV 1.0% Win 52.0% · Push 0.0% Edge: 0.5 pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: 2026-10-05T18:02:48.511Z	–	–	No Play	–
Total
Central Arkansas at Abilene Christian 14 - 20Sat, Oct 10 · 8:00 PM
Moneyline No Play Incomplete model inputs Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 6, away 6. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: unavailable EV – Win – · Push – Edge: – pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: unavailable	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Incomplete model inputs Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 6, away 6. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: unavailable EV – Win – · Push – Edge: – pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: unavailable	–	–	No Play	–
Total
SE Louisiana at UT Rio Grande Valley 3 - 13Sat, Oct 10 · 8:00 PM
Moneyline No Play Incomplete model inputs Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 7, away 7. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: unavailable EV – Win – · Push – Edge: – pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: unavailable	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Incomplete model inputs Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 7, away 7. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: unavailable EV – Win – · Push – Edge: – pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: unavailable	–	–	No Play	–
Total
Georgia at Alabama 20 - 17Sat, Oct 10 · 7:30 PM
Moneyline No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-05T18:02:34+00:00 EV 9.0% Win 57.3% · Push 0.0% Edge: 4.7 pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: 2026-10-05T18:02:48.511Z	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-05T18:02:34+00:00 EV 4.4% Win 53.5% · Push 0.0% Edge: 2.3 pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: 2026-10-05T18:02:48.511Z	–	–	No Play	–
Total
Syracuse at Virginia 25 - 28Sat, Oct 10 · 7:30 PM
Moneyline No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-05T18:01:22+00:00 EV 3.4% Win 26.9% · Push 0.0% Edge: 0.9 pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: 2026-10-05T18:02:48.511Z	–	–	No Play	–
Spread No Play Below the edge threshold Recorded details Decision: 2026-10-05T18:03:00.805Z Rule: cfb-picks-v7 Missing inputs: home 1, away 1. Counts include unavailable injury data. Model: joint_scoring_v14 Provider updated: 2026-10-05T18:00:28+00:00 EV 3.5% Win 54.2% · Push 0.0% Edge: 1.8 pp Forecast: 2026-10-05T18:02:44.227Z Price captured: 2026-10-05T18:02:48.511Z	–	–	No Play	–

312 recorded market decisions. 20 recommendations across 15 unique games. No Play decisions are shown for context and excluded from the pick record and ROI.

One recommended side per game and market. Prices and decisions are frozen when first published. Later forecasts do not rewrite a pick. A changed kickoff voids the original pick.

CFB research picks v11 use fresh paired bookmaker moneylines, remove each book's vig, and take the median market probability. Its equivalent margin receives 80% weight and the pure model margin 20%; the blended margin determines win probability. Moneylines need positive estimated EV and at least 2.0 probability-equivalent points of edge; they cannot be promoted to fill the weekly quota. Spreads blend 20% model/history with 80% frozen market margin and apply development-fitted football key-number weights, with 15.35-point dispersion. Totals retain the published 50/50 blend and 15.93-point dispersion. The 15-pick research target can promote positive-EV spreads and totals only. Each market is capped at half the available exploratory slots, rounded up, after shortlisting. Capped slots stay empty; qualified picks are unchanged. These exploratory picks are labeled and evaluated separately from edge-qualified picks. Each pick records its policy and probability source; earlier picks retain their original rules and prices. Prices need a fresh opposing quote, matching kickoff, and verified game identity. Incomplete inputs remain No Play. Each pick uses one research unit. Multiple picks on the same game have correlated outcomes and their shared exposure is flagged. Pushes return the stake and moneyline ties are void. Recommendations remain active for research; estimated edges are not validated profits.

Recording began 2026-10-05 for this selection. Earlier forecasts remain in accuracy history and are not counted as past picks. View forecast history.