2026 Graded Games

748 graded games

Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.

Pick history

2026 graded games
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2026	6	Boise State @ Fresno State	38–31	+7.2	+9.0	+7.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Kansas @ Utah	24–41	-16.6	-15.8	-17.0	0.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Hawai'i @ Arizona State	12–30	-21.1	-20.8	-18.0	3.1
2026	6	Minnesota @ Purdue	13–41	+1.7	+2.8	-28.0	29.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Central Arkansas @ Abilene Christian	14–20	-13.5	-10.0	-6.0	7.5
2026	6	SE Louisiana @ UT Rio Grande Valley	3–13	+1.2	+3.0	-10.0	11.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Georgia @ Alabama	20–17	-2.8	-2.5	+3.0	5.8
2026	6	Syracuse @ Virginia	25–28	-10.1	-14.0	-3.0	7.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	USC @ Penn State	31–23	-0.3	+0.3	+8.0	8.3
2026	6	Air Force @ Northern Illinois	28–7	+9.8	+7.0	+21.0	11.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	James Madison @ Georgia Southern	27–24	+9.4	+7.0	+3.0	6.4
2026	6	Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech	31–32	-3.5	-3.0	-1.0	2.5
2026	6	LSU @ Kentucky	34–35	+8.6	+9.3	-1.0	9.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	UAB @ Memphis	13–38	-15.1	-15.3	-25.0	9.9
2026	6	Nevada @ UTEP	30–13	+7.8	+10.0	+17.0	9.2
2026	6	North Dakota State @ UNLV	7–13	+2.0	+2.8	-6.0	8.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Tarleton State @ Austin Peay	40–32	-1.9	-2.5	+8.0	9.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington	22–31	-7.8	-6.5	-9.0	1.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M	17–55	-8.2	-4.0	-38.0	29.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Coastal Carolina @ Marshall	27–21	-3.9	-4.5	+6.0	9.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	San Diego State @ Oregon State	14–66	-11.1	-14.5	-52.0	40.9
2026	6	South Carolina State @ Charleston Southern	39–49	+5.5	+6.5	-10.0	15.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Cal Poly @ Idaho State	25–24	-13.1	-14.5	+1.0	14.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	West Georgia @ Eastern Kentucky	20–30	-5.5	-5.5	-10.0	4.5
2026	6	Davidson @ Presbyterian	21–38	-14.3	-14.5	-17.0	2.7
2026	6	North Dakota @ Northern Iowa	17–24	+9.4	+13.5	-7.0	16.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Montana @ Northern Arizona	44–49	+3.9	+9.5	-5.0	8.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Jackson State @ Grambling	38–45	+7.3	+8.5	-7.0	14.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Tennessee @ Arkansas	24–17	+13.0	+13.8	+7.0	6.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Maryland @ Ohio State	16–45	-34.0	-31.3	-29.0	5.0
2026	6	Rice @ East Carolina	12–28	-11.1	-10.0	-16.0	4.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Stony Brook @ Towson	31–24	+1.4	+3.5	+7.0	5.6
2026	6	Utah Tech @ Portland State	14–30	-6.4	-2.5	-16.0	9.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Florida A&M @ Alabama State	28–27	-12.2	-14.5	+1.0	13.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Incarnate Word @ Lamar	35–38	-7.1	-7.0	-3.0	4.1
2026	6	UConn @ Temple	34–20	-4.2	-3.8	+14.0	18.2
2026	6	Texas vs Oklahoma	24–27	+9.8	+7.8	-3.0	12.8
2026	6	Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt	52–17	+7.0	+9.3	+35.0	28.0
2026	6	Houston @ Kansas State	35–16	-1.8	-2.5	+19.0	20.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Duke @ Georgia Tech	25–28	+3.9	+4.5	-3.0	6.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Stanford @ Notre Dame	7–58	-38.7	-40.0	-51.0	12.3
2026	6	Virginia Tech @ California	20–25	+7.3	+10.8	-5.0	12.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Illinois @ Michigan State	38–37	+1.7	+2.5	+1.0	0.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	UCLA @ Oregon	17–15	-14.3	-10.3	+2.0	16.3
2026	6	Charlotte @ North Texas	10–50	-28.1	-27.8	-40.0	11.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Tulsa @ Navy	26–34	-3.2	-3.0	-8.0	4.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Eastern Michigan @ Akron	25–23	+4.0	+5.0	+2.0	2.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Buffalo @ Toledo	23–8	-21.8	-18.8	+15.0	36.8
2026	6	Central Michigan @ Ohio	14–31	-4.4	-2.5	-17.0	12.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Kent State @ Western Michigan	7–38	-16.5	-13.8	-31.0	14.5 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the published market-informed line, not the pure projection.