Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | PIT @ DEN | 13–6 | +5.7 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | SEA @ NE | 23–20 | +1.1 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 1.9 |
| 2024 | 2 | SF @ MIN | 17–23 | +1.2 | +4.5 | -6.0 | 7.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | TB @ DET | 20–16 | -4.6 | -7.5 | +4.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | ARI @ BUF | 28–34 | -8.5 | -6.5 | -6.0 | 2.5 |
| 2024 | 1 | BAL @ KC | 20–27 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 4.0 |
| 2024 | 1 | CAR @ NO | 10–47 | -10.3 | -3.5 | -37.0 | 26.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | DAL @ CLE | 33–17 | +1.6 | -2.5 | +16.0 | 14.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | DEN @ SEA | 20–26 | -7.4 | -6.5 | -6.0 | 1.4 |
| 2024 | 1 | GB vs PHI | 29–34 | +2.5 | -2.0 | -5.0 | 7.5 |
| 2024 | 1 | HOU @ IND | 29–27 | +2.9 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | JAX @ MIA | 17–20 | -5.4 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 2.4 |
| 2024 | 1 | LA @ DET | 20–26 | -5.0 | -5.0 | -6.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | LV @ LAC | 10–22 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -12.0 | 9.3 |
| 2024 | 1 | MIN @ NYG | 28–6 | +0.9 | +1.0 | +22.0 | 21.1 |
| 2024 | 1 | NE @ CIN | 16–10 | -8.5 | -8.0 | +6.0 | 14.5 |
| 2024 | 1 | NYJ @ SF | 19–32 | -8.2 | -3.5 | -13.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | PIT @ ATL | 18–10 | -6.9 | -4.0 | +8.0 | 14.9 |
| 2024 | 1 | TEN @ CHI | 17–24 | -4.0 | -4.0 | -7.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | WAS @ TB | 20–37 | -6.9 | -4.0 | -17.0 | 10.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 22 | SF vs KC | 22–25 | +1.9 | +1.5 | -3.0 | 4.9 |
| 2023 | 21 | DET @ SF | 31–34 | -7.6 | -7.5 | -3.0 | 4.6 |
| 2023 | 21 | KC @ BAL | 17–10 | -6.7 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 13.7 |
| 2023 | 20 | GB @ SF | 21–24 | -4.4 | -10.5 | -3.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 20 | HOU @ BAL | 10–34 | -10.9 | -10.0 | -24.0 | 13.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 20 | KC @ BUF | 27–24 | -3.1 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 6.1 |
| 2023 | 20 | TB @ DET | 23–31 | -5.3 | -6.0 | -8.0 | 2.7 |
| 2023 | 19 | CLE @ HOU | 14–45 | +1.0 | +2.5 | -31.0 | 32.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 19 | GB @ DAL | 48–32 | -5.8 | -7.0 | +16.0 | 21.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 19 | LA @ DET | 23–24 | -3.2 | -3.5 | -1.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 19 | MIA @ KC | 7–26 | -2.4 | -4.5 | -19.0 | 16.6 |
| 2023 | 19 | PHI @ TB | 9–32 | -1.0 | +2.5 | -23.0 | 22.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 19 | PIT @ BUF | 17–31 | -7.0 | -10.0 | -14.0 | 7.0 |
| 2023 | 18 | ATL @ NO | 17–48 | -5.4 | -3.5 | -31.0 | 25.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | BUF @ MIA | 21–14 | +0.5 | +2.5 | +7.0 | 6.5 |
| 2023 | 18 | CHI @ GB | 9–17 | -3.8 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | CLE @ CIN | 14–31 | -2.2 | -7.5 | -17.0 | 14.8 |
| 2023 | 18 | DAL @ WAS | 38–10 | +14.8 | +13.0 | +28.0 | 13.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | DEN @ LV | 14–27 | -4.1 | -3.5 | -13.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | HOU @ IND | 23–19 | +0.0 | +1.5 | +4.0 | 4.0 |
| 2023 | 18 | JAX @ TEN | 20–28 | +2.8 | +3.5 | -8.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | KC @ LAC | 13–12 | -3.2 | -3.5 | +1.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | LA @ SF | 21–20 | -4.7 | -5.5 | +1.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | MIN @ DET | 20–30 | -4.2 | -3.5 | -10.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | NYJ @ NE | 17–3 | -3.5 | -2.5 | +14.0 | 17.5 |
| 2023 | 18 | PHI @ NYG | 10–27 | +3.1 | +4.5 | -17.0 | 20.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | PIT @ BAL | 17–10 | -2.4 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 9.4 |
| 2023 | 18 | SEA @ ARI | 21–20 | +3.4 | +2.5 | +1.0 | 2.4 |
| 2023 | 18 | TB @ CAR | 9–0 | +6.2 | +5.0 | +9.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | ARI @ PHI | 35–31 | -12.3 | -12.0 | +4.0 | 16.3 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.