Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ATL @ CHI | 17–37 | -2.3 | -3.0 | -20.0 | 17.7 |
| 2023 | 17 | CAR @ JAX | 0–26 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -26.0 | 23.5 |
| 2023 | 17 | CIN @ KC | 17–25 | -6.4 | -7.5 | -8.0 | 1.6 |
| 2023 | 17 | DET @ DAL | 19–20 | -5.8 | -5.5 | -1.0 | 4.8 |
| 2023 | 17 | GB @ MIN | 33–10 | -2.4 | -1.0 | +23.0 | 25.4 |
| 2023 | 17 | LA @ NYG | 26–25 | +7.5 | +6.0 | +1.0 | 6.5 |
| 2023 | 17 | LAC @ DEN | 9–16 | -4.2 | -3.5 | -7.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | LV @ IND | 20–23 | -1.9 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2023 | 17 | MIA @ BAL | 19–56 | -3.5 | -3.0 | -37.0 | 33.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | NE @ BUF | 21–27 | -13.6 | -15.0 | -6.0 | 7.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | NO @ TB | 23–13 | -4.0 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 14.0 |
| 2023 | 17 | NYJ @ CLE | 20–37 | -8.9 | -6.5 | -17.0 | 8.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | PIT @ SEA | 30–23 | -4.1 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 11.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | SF @ WAS | 27–10 | +15.8 | +14.0 | +17.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | TEN @ HOU | 3–26 | -2.6 | -5.0 | -23.0 | 20.4 |
| 2023 | 16 | ARI @ CHI | 16–27 | -6.9 | -4.5 | -11.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | BAL @ SF | 33–19 | -7.3 | -6.5 | +14.0 | 21.3 |
| 2023 | 16 | BUF @ LAC | 24–22 | +14.6 | +13.0 | +2.0 | 12.6 |
| 2023 | 16 | CIN @ PIT | 11–34 | +5.4 | +3.0 | -23.0 | 28.4 |
| 2023 | 16 | CLE @ HOU | 36–22 | +4.3 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | DAL @ MIA | 20–22 | -2.1 | -1.5 | -2.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | DET @ MIN | 30–24 | -1.4 | +2.5 | +6.0 | 7.4 |
| 2023 | 16 | GB @ CAR | 33–30 | +5.9 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 2.9 |
| 2023 | 16 | IND @ ATL | 10–29 | -2.1 | -3.0 | -19.0 | 16.9 |
| 2023 | 16 | JAX @ TB | 12–30 | -0.3 | +2.0 | -18.0 | 17.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | LV @ KC | 20–14 | -8.8 | -11.0 | +6.0 | 14.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | NE @ DEN | 26–23 | -6.2 | -7.0 | +3.0 | 9.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | NO @ LA | 22–30 | -2.7 | -4.0 | -8.0 | 5.3 |
| 2023 | 16 | NYG @ PHI | 25–33 | -13.8 | -14.0 | -8.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | SEA @ TEN | 20–17 | +2.0 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 1.0 |
| 2023 | 16 | WAS @ NYJ | 28–30 | -5.1 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 3.1 |
| 2023 | 15 | ATL @ CAR | 7–9 | +4.9 | +3.0 | -2.0 | 6.9 |
| 2023 | 15 | BAL @ JAX | 23–7 | +4.8 | +4.0 | +16.0 | 11.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 15 | CHI @ CLE | 17–20 | -2.8 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.2 |
| 2023 | 15 | DAL @ BUF | 10–31 | +2.3 | -2.0 | -21.0 | 23.3 |
| 2023 | 15 | DEN @ DET | 17–42 | -1.4 | -5.5 | -25.0 | 23.6 |
| 2023 | 15 | HOU @ TEN | 19–16 | -5.2 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 8.2 |
| 2023 | 15 | KC @ NE | 27–17 | +7.6 | +10.0 | +10.0 | 2.4 |
| 2023 | 15 | LAC @ LV | 21–63 | -1.3 | -3.0 | -42.0 | 40.7 |
| 2023 | 15 | MIN @ CIN | 24–27 | -1.4 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2023 | 15 | NYG @ NO | 6–24 | -6.3 | -6.0 | -18.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 15 | NYJ @ MIA | 0–30 | -8.1 | -7.5 | -30.0 | 21.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 15 | PHI @ SEA | 17–20 | +3.4 | +5.0 | -3.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 15 | PIT @ IND | 13–30 | -0.7 | -1.5 | -17.0 | 16.3 |
| 2023 | 15 | SF @ ARI | 45–29 | +15.3 | +12.5 | +16.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 15 | TB @ GB | 34–20 | -6.3 | -4.0 | +14.0 | 20.3 |
| 2023 | 15 | WAS @ LA | 20–28 | -9.1 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 14 | BUF @ KC | 20–17 | -1.0 | -2.0 | +3.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 14 | CAR @ NO | 6–28 | -7.8 | -5.5 | -22.0 | 14.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 14 | DEN @ LAC | 24–7 | -1.4 | -3.0 | +17.0 | 18.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.