Backtest History

2761 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.

NFL backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	14	DET @ CHI	13–28	+1.3	+3.0	-15.0	16.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	GB @ NYG	22–24	+9.8	+6.0	-2.0	11.8
2023	14	HOU @ NYJ	6–30	+4.6	+3.5	-24.0	28.6
2023	14	IND @ CIN	14–34	-4.7	-3.0	-20.0	15.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	JAX @ CLE	27–31	-0.5	-2.5	-4.0	3.5
2023	14	LA @ BAL	31–37	-8.6	-7.5	-6.0	2.6
2023	14	MIN @ LV	3–0	+2.2	+3.0	+3.0	0.8
2023	14	NE @ PIT	21–18	-8.0	-6.0	+3.0	11.0
2023	14	PHI @ DAL	13–33	-6.9	-3.5	-20.0	13.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	SEA @ SF	16–28	-15.7	-14.5	-12.0	3.7
2023	14	TB @ ATL	29–25	-2.2	-1.5	+4.0	6.2
2023	14	TEN @ MIA	28–27	-14.3	-14.0	+1.0	15.3
2023	13	ARI @ PIT	24–10	-9.6	-6.0	+14.0	23.6
2023	13	ATL @ NYJ	13–8	+1.3	+2.0	+5.0	3.7
2023	13	CAR @ TB	18–21	-6.3	-4.0	-3.0	3.3
2023	13	CIN @ JAX	34–31	-9.3	-10.0	+3.0	12.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	CLE @ LA	19–36	-1.3	-3.5	-17.0	15.7
2023	13	DEN @ HOU	17–22	-2.4	-3.5	-5.0	2.6
2023	13	DET @ NO	33–28	-0.0	+4.0	+5.0	5.0
2023	13	IND @ TEN	31–28	+1.3	+1.5	+3.0	1.7
2023	13	KC @ GB	19–27	+2.9	+5.5	-8.0	10.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	LAC @ NE	6–0	+4.1	+4.5	+6.0	1.9
2023	13	MIA @ WAS	45–15	+8.0	+8.5	+30.0	22.0
2023	13	SEA @ DAL	35–41	-13.6	-9.5	-6.0	7.6
2023	13	SF @ PHI	42–19	+3.0	+3.0	+23.0	20.0
2023	12	BAL @ LAC	20–10	+3.3	+3.0	+10.0	6.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	BUF @ PHI	34–37	-3.7	-2.5	-3.0	0.7
2023	12	CAR @ TEN	10–17	-5.7	-3.5	-7.0	1.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	CHI @ MIN	12–10	-4.3	-3.0	+2.0	6.3
2023	12	CLE @ DEN	12–29	-1.8	-1.5	-17.0	15.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	GB @ DET	29–22	-5.4	-8.5	+7.0	12.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	JAX @ HOU	24–21	+0.1	+1.0	+3.0	2.9
2023	12	KC @ LV	31–17	+9.0	+9.0	+14.0	5.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	LA @ ARI	37–14	+1.1	+3.0	+23.0	21.9
2023	12	MIA @ NYJ	34–13	+5.2	+9.5	+21.0	15.8
2023	12	NE @ NYG	7–10	+3.8	+4.5	-3.0	6.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	NO @ ATL	15–24	+2.3	+2.0	-9.0	11.3
2023	12	PIT @ CIN	16–10	+1.0	+2.0	+6.0	5.0
2023	12	SF @ SEA	31–13	+7.8	+7.0	+18.0	10.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	TB @ IND	20–27	-2.1	-2.5	-7.0	4.9
2023	12	WAS @ DAL	10–45	-15.7	-13.0	-35.0	19.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	ARI @ HOU	16–21	-7.6	-5.5	-5.0	2.6
2023	11	CHI @ DET	26–31	-7.4	-8.0	-5.0	2.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	CIN @ BAL	20–34	-6.1	-4.0	-14.0	7.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	DAL @ CAR	33–10	+15.4	+11.0	+23.0	7.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	LAC @ GB	20–23	+3.8	+3.0	-3.0	6.8
2023	11	LV @ MIA	13–20	-12.7	-14.0	-7.0	5.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	MIN @ DEN	20–21	-1.3	-2.5	-1.0	0.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	NYG @ WAS	31–19	-12.3	-7.5	+12.0	24.3
2023	11	NYJ @ BUF	6–32	-7.2	-8.0	-26.0	18.8

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.