Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 11 | PHI @ KC | 21–17 | -1.0 | -2.5 | +4.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | PIT @ CLE | 10–13 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 0.9 |
| 2023 | 11 | SEA @ LA | 16–17 | -0.8 | -2.5 | -1.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | TB @ SF | 14–27 | -12.8 | -13.5 | -13.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | TEN @ JAX | 14–34 | -5.3 | -6.5 | -20.0 | 14.7 |
| 2023 | 10 | ATL @ ARI | 23–25 | +0.9 | +2.0 | -2.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | CAR @ CHI | 13–16 | -6.5 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 3.5 |
| 2023 | 10 | CLE @ BAL | 33–31 | -8.2 | -6.0 | +2.0 | 10.2 |
| 2023 | 10 | DEN @ BUF | 24–22 | -8.8 | -7.5 | +2.0 | 10.8 |
| 2023 | 10 | DET @ LAC | 41–38 | -3.2 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 6.2 |
| 2023 | 10 | GB @ PIT | 19–23 | -3.8 | -3.0 | -4.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | HOU @ CIN | 30–27 | -4.2 | -5.5 | +3.0 | 7.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | IND vs NE | 10–6 | +2.4 | +1.0 | +4.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | NO @ MIN | 19–27 | +3.4 | +3.0 | -8.0 | 11.4 |
| 2023 | 10 | NYG @ DAL | 17–49 | -21.6 | -17.5 | -32.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | NYJ @ LV | 12–16 | +0.9 | +1.0 | -4.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | SF @ JAX | 34–3 | +1.4 | +3.0 | +31.0 | 29.6 |
| 2023 | 10 | TEN @ TB | 6–20 | -1.6 | -2.5 | -14.0 | 12.4 |
| 2023 | 10 | WAS @ SEA | 26–29 | -5.0 | -6.0 | -3.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | ARI @ CLE | 0–27 | -11.4 | -13.0 | -27.0 | 15.6 |
| 2023 | 9 | BUF @ CIN | 18–24 | +0.1 | -1.5 | -6.0 | 6.1 |
| 2023 | 9 | CHI @ NO | 17–24 | -8.8 | -9.0 | -7.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | DAL @ PHI | 23–28 | -1.3 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 3.7 |
| 2023 | 9 | IND @ CAR | 27–13 | +1.6 | +1.5 | +14.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | LA @ GB | 3–20 | -4.8 | -3.5 | -17.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | LAC @ NYJ | 27–6 | +3.5 | +3.0 | +21.0 | 17.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | MIA vs KC | 14–21 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -7.0 | 6.2 |
| 2023 | 9 | MIN @ ATL | 31–28 | -4.1 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 7.1 |
| 2023 | 9 | NYG @ LV | 6–30 | +0.9 | -1.0 | -24.0 | 24.9 |
| 2023 | 9 | SEA @ BAL | 3–37 | -8.8 | -6.0 | -34.0 | 25.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | TB @ HOU | 37–39 | -4.1 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 2.1 |
| 2023 | 9 | TEN @ PIT | 16–20 | -1.3 | -3.5 | -4.0 | 2.7 |
| 2023 | 9 | WAS @ NE | 20–17 | -1.3 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | ATL @ TEN | 23–28 | -0.2 | +2.5 | -5.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | BAL @ ARI | 31–24 | +14.6 | +9.5 | +7.0 | 7.6 |
| 2023 | 8 | CHI @ LAC | 13–30 | -6.8 | -9.5 | -17.0 | 10.2 |
| 2023 | 8 | CIN @ SF | 31–17 | -7.8 | -4.0 | +14.0 | 21.8 |
| 2023 | 8 | CLE @ SEA | 20–24 | -5.6 | -4.0 | -4.0 | 1.6 |
| 2023 | 8 | HOU @ CAR | 13–15 | +5.8 | +3.0 | -2.0 | 7.8 |
| 2023 | 8 | JAX @ PIT | 20–10 | +0.3 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 9.7 |
| 2023 | 8 | KC @ DEN | 9–24 | +10.4 | +7.0 | -15.0 | 25.4 |
| 2023 | 8 | LA @ DAL | 20–43 | -6.6 | -6.5 | -23.0 | 16.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | LV @ DET | 14–26 | -6.3 | -7.0 | -12.0 | 5.7 |
| 2023 | 8 | MIN @ GB | 24–10 | +1.3 | +1.0 | +14.0 | 12.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | NE @ MIA | 17–31 | -9.7 | -7.5 | -14.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | NO @ IND | 38–27 | +0.9 | +2.0 | +11.0 | 10.1 |
| 2023 | 8 | NYJ @ NYG | 13–10 | +3.9 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.9 |
| 2023 | 8 | PHI @ WAS | 38–31 | +8.3 | +7.0 | +7.0 | 1.3 |
| 2023 | 8 | TB @ BUF | 18–24 | -11.1 | -10.0 | -6.0 | 5.1 |
| 2023 | 7 | ARI @ SEA | 10–20 | -10.3 | -9.5 | -10.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.