Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 5 | IND @ BAL | 25–31 | -6.0 | -7.5 | -6.0 | 0.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 5 | LA @ SEA | 26–17 | +2.0 | +2.5 | +9.0 | 7.0 |
| 2021 | 5 | MIA @ TB | 17–45 | -10.1 | -11.0 | -28.0 | 17.9 |
| 2021 | 5 | NE @ HOU | 25–22 | +6.8 | +8.0 | +3.0 | 3.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 5 | NO @ WAS | 33–22 | +2.6 | +2.5 | +11.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 5 | NYG @ DAL | 20–44 | -10.3 | -7.5 | -24.0 | 13.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 5 | NYJ vs ATL | 20–27 | -2.8 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 4.2 |
| 2021 | 5 | PHI @ CAR | 21–18 | -5.7 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 8.7 |
| 2021 | 5 | SF @ ARI | 10–17 | -10.2 | -6.0 | -7.0 | 3.2 |
| 2021 | 5 | TEN @ JAX | 37–19 | +3.3 | +4.0 | +18.0 | 14.7 |
| 2021 | 4 | ARI @ LA | 37–20 | -2.5 | -3.5 | +17.0 | 19.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | BAL @ DEN | 23–7 | -2.0 | -1.0 | +16.0 | 18.0 |
| 2021 | 4 | CAR @ DAL | 28–36 | -1.2 | -4.5 | -8.0 | 6.8 |
| 2021 | 4 | CLE @ MIN | 14–7 | -1.6 | +1.0 | +7.0 | 8.6 |
| 2021 | 4 | DET @ CHI | 14–24 | -1.1 | -3.0 | -10.0 | 8.9 |
| 2021 | 4 | HOU @ BUF | 0–40 | -16.2 | -19.0 | -40.0 | 23.8 |
| 2021 | 4 | IND @ MIA | 27–17 | -2.1 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 12.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | JAX @ CIN | 21–24 | -9.0 | -7.5 | -3.0 | 6.0 |
| 2021 | 4 | KC @ PHI | 42–30 | +6.0 | +7.5 | +12.0 | 6.0 |
| 2021 | 4 | LV @ LAC | 14–28 | -3.5 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | NYG @ NO | 27–21 | -10.5 | -7.5 | +6.0 | 16.5 |
| 2021 | 4 | PIT @ GB | 17–27 | -6.1 | -6.5 | -10.0 | 3.9 |
| 2021 | 4 | SEA @ SF | 28–21 | -2.6 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 9.6 |
| 2021 | 4 | TB @ NE | 19–17 | +6.4 | +6.0 | +2.0 | 4.4 |
| 2021 | 4 | TEN @ NYJ | 24–27 | +6.4 | +5.5 | -3.0 | 9.4 |
| 2021 | 4 | WAS @ ATL | 34–30 | +1.4 | +1.0 | +4.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | ARI @ JAX | 31–19 | +10.4 | +8.0 | +12.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | ATL @ NYG | 17–14 | -3.1 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 6.1 |
| 2021 | 3 | BAL @ DET | 19–17 | +8.9 | +7.5 | +2.0 | 6.9 |
| 2021 | 3 | CAR @ HOU | 24–9 | +6.9 | +8.0 | +15.0 | 8.1 |
| 2021 | 3 | CHI @ CLE | 6–26 | -8.9 | -7.5 | -20.0 | 11.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | CIN @ PIT | 24–10 | -4.5 | -2.5 | +14.0 | 18.5 |
| 2021 | 3 | GB @ SF | 30–28 | -6.2 | -3.5 | +2.0 | 8.2 |
| 2021 | 3 | IND @ TEN | 16–25 | -2.0 | -4.5 | -9.0 | 7.0 |
| 2021 | 3 | LAC @ KC | 30–24 | -6.2 | -6.5 | +6.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | MIA @ LV | 28–31 | -6.3 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 3.3 |
| 2021 | 3 | NO @ NE | 28–13 | -2.2 | -3.0 | +15.0 | 17.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | NYJ @ DEN | 0–26 | -13.4 | -10.5 | -26.0 | 12.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | PHI @ DAL | 21–41 | -2.3 | -3.5 | -20.0 | 17.7 |
| 2021 | 3 | SEA @ MIN | 17–30 | +0.8 | +2.0 | -13.0 | 13.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | TB @ LA | 24–34 | -1.7 | +1.0 | -10.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | WAS @ BUF | 21–43 | -7.5 | -7.5 | -22.0 | 14.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 2 | ATL @ TB | 25–48 | -12.1 | -13.5 | -23.0 | 10.9 |
| 2021 | 2 | BUF @ MIA | 35–0 | +1.1 | +3.5 | +35.0 | 33.9 |
| 2021 | 2 | CIN @ CHI | 17–20 | -0.3 | -2.0 | -3.0 | 2.7 |
| 2021 | 2 | DAL @ LAC | 20–17 | -2.6 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 2 | DEN @ JAX | 23–13 | +7.7 | +6.0 | +10.0 | 2.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 2 | DET @ GB | 17–35 | -7.9 | -11.5 | -18.0 | 10.1 |
| 2021 | 2 | HOU @ CLE | 21–31 | -10.1 | -13.5 | -10.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 2 | KC @ BAL | 35–36 | +2.5 | +3.5 | -1.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.