Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2 | LA @ IND | 27–24 | +4.9 | +4.0 | +3.0 | 1.9 |
| 2021 | 2 | LV @ PIT | 26–17 | -3.9 | -5.5 | +9.0 | 12.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 2 | MIN @ ARI | 33–34 | -5.7 | -4.0 | -1.0 | 4.7 |
| 2021 | 2 | NE @ NYJ | 25–6 | +5.4 | +5.5 | +19.0 | 13.6 |
| 2021 | 2 | NO @ CAR | 7–26 | +5.8 | +3.0 | -19.0 | 24.8 |
| 2021 | 2 | NYG @ WAS | 29–30 | -5.7 | -4.0 | -1.0 | 4.7 |
| 2021 | 2 | SF @ PHI | 17–11 | +1.6 | +3.0 | +6.0 | 4.4 |
| 2021 | 2 | TEN @ SEA | 33–30 | -9.8 | -6.5 | +3.0 | 12.8 |
| 2021 | 1 | ARI @ TEN | 38–13 | -5.4 | -2.5 | +25.0 | 30.4 |
| 2021 | 1 | BAL @ LV | 27–33 | +4.4 | +3.0 | -6.0 | 10.4 |
| 2021 | 1 | CHI @ LA | 14–34 | -9.7 | -9.5 | -20.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 1 | CLE @ KC | 29–33 | -5.4 | -5.5 | -4.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 1 | DAL @ TB | 29–31 | -10.1 | -10.0 | -2.0 | 8.1 |
| 2021 | 1 | DEN @ NYG | 27–13 | +3.0 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 11.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 1 | GB vs NO | 3–38 | +5.9 | +4.0 | -35.0 | 40.9 |
| 2021 | 1 | JAX @ HOU | 21–37 | +1.8 | +3.5 | -16.0 | 17.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 1 | LAC @ WAS | 20–16 | +2.8 | -2.5 | +4.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 1 | MIA @ NE | 17–16 | -2.2 | -3.5 | +1.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 1 | MIN @ CIN | 24–27 | +3.7 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 6.7 |
| 2021 | 1 | NYJ @ CAR | 14–19 | -2.4 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 2.6 |
| 2021 | 1 | PHI @ ATL | 32–6 | -5.1 | -3.5 | +26.0 | 31.1 |
| 2021 | 1 | PIT @ BUF | 23–16 | -7.7 | -6.5 | +7.0 | 14.7 |
| 2021 | 1 | SEA @ IND | 28–16 | +3.7 | +3.0 | +12.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 1 | SF @ DET | 41–33 | +10.1 | +9.5 | +8.0 | 2.1 |
| 2020 | 21 | KC vs TB | 9–31 | -0.3 | +3.0 | -22.0 | 21.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 20 | BUF @ KC | 24–38 | +1.3 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 15.3 |
| 2020 | 20 | TB @ GB | 31–26 | -2.2 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 7.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 19 | BAL @ BUF | 3–17 | -1.6 | -2.5 | -14.0 | 12.4 |
| 2020 | 19 | CLE @ KC | 17–22 | -3.3 | -7.5 | -5.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 19 | LA @ GB | 18–32 | -8.2 | -7.0 | -14.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 19 | TB @ NO | 30–20 | -2.0 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 12.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 18 | BAL @ TEN | 20–13 | +6.2 | +3.5 | +7.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 18 | CHI @ NO | 9–21 | -12.5 | -11.0 | -12.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 18 | CLE @ PIT | 48–37 | -1.8 | -5.0 | +11.0 | 12.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 18 | IND @ BUF | 24–27 | -9.4 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 6.4 |
| 2020 | 18 | LA @ SEA | 30–20 | -1.7 | -3.0 | +10.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 18 | TB @ WAS | 31–23 | +12.5 | +10.0 | +8.0 | 4.5 |
| 2020 | 17 | ARI @ LA | 7–18 | -2.0 | -1.0 | -11.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | ATL @ TB | 27–44 | -8.4 | -7.5 | -17.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | BAL @ CIN | 38–3 | +12.4 | +13.5 | +35.0 | 22.6 |
| 2020 | 17 | DAL @ NYG | 19–23 | +2.8 | +1.5 | -4.0 | 6.8 |
| 2020 | 17 | GB @ CHI | 35–16 | +6.2 | +4.5 | +19.0 | 12.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | JAX @ IND | 14–28 | -15.5 | -15.5 | -14.0 | 1.5 |
| 2020 | 17 | LAC @ KC | 38–21 | +4.8 | +7.0 | +17.0 | 12.2 |
| 2020 | 17 | LV @ DEN | 32–31 | +1.1 | +2.5 | +1.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | MIA @ BUF | 26–56 | -4.5 | +3.5 | -30.0 | 25.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | MIN @ DET | 37–35 | +5.2 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 3.2 |
| 2020 | 17 | NO @ CAR | 33–7 | +9.3 | +6.0 | +26.0 | 16.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | NYJ @ NE | 14–28 | -1.8 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 12.2 |
| 2020 | 17 | PIT @ CLE | 22–24 | -8.9 | -10.5 | -2.0 | 6.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.